Texas is preparing for another potentially hot summer that may bring more challenges to the state’s grid. A grid emergency and rolling blackouts could come in August.
Between 8 and 9 p.m. in August, there will be a 16% chance of an electrical grid emergency along with a 12% chance of rolling blackouts, according to the state’s grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, and its latest report.
The hour of 8 p.m. through 9 p.m. is when the grid is typically most stressed because that’s when the production of solar power is waning and usage rates are near their highest levels. Chances could also increase if wind power output is unusually low.
ERCOT declined an interview request from The Dallas Morning News.
According to the report, energy demand in Texas could reach 78,000 megawatts in August, which is below the state’s estimated supply of approximately 83,000 megawatts. If the state’s operating energy reserves drop below 2,500 megawatts, it could trigger a rolling blackout to prevent the grid’s failure across the state.
Last year’s summer was the second-hottest in Texas history and Dallas-Fort Worth’s third-hottest. Despite facing some tough challenges from the heat, the grid endured it for the most part and helped keep the lights on for most Texans.
According to previous reports, June and July aren’t projected to bring nearly as high of a risk of an emergency as August. ERCOT predicts that June has a 1% chance of a grid emergency with a 0.27% chance of a blackout. July is projected to have a 4.8% chance of a grid emergency and a 2.36% chance of a blackout.
Dallas and North Texas in general are seeing a population boom and more businesses calling the area home which could threaten to stress the grid even more. However, ERCOT has previously said that it’s begun planning for how to meet future electricity demand through its ‘New Era of Planning.’
“As a result of Texas’ continued strong economic growth, new load is being added to the ERCOT system faster and in greater amounts than ever before,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT’s president and CEO said in April.
By 2030, ERCOT predicts that electricity demand in the state will increase by another 40,000 megawatts. Daily power demand usually sits at around 80,000 megawatts these days, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
