In August 2020, Taylor Lopez and her husband Joseph bought their home for $180,000 in the fast-growing city of Anna.
They bought the three-bedroom house built in 1966 with a loan carrying a 3.8% mortgage rate. “From an investment standpoint, it felt like a good choice,” said Lopez, 36, a real estate manager for restaurant chain Wingstop.
After more than two years in the home, they’ve been thinking about selling. Joseph works in Lewisville and Taylor works in Addison, so they would like to find a place offering a shorter commute.
But, like many other would-be upsizers in Dallas-Fort Worth, the couple feels locked into their current home.
Although they could get a good return on a sale, they would have to shop in a dramatically more expensive housing market than when they first purchased and sacrifice their current loan for a new one at a much higher rate.
After a wave of low-rate homebuying and refinancing from 2020 to 2022, more than half of outstanding Texas mortgages have rates of less than 4%, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency data.
Since last fall, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has been hovering between 6% and 7%.
“There are people that want to sell, but that is what is keeping them there at their house,” said Misty Michael, a real estate agent in the Sachse and Plano area.
The Lopez family said any home they would want to buy, in school districts they want to be in and that wouldn’t require a lot of work, would start in the $400,000 range.
“It doesn’t make sense when you weigh out all the pros and cons, so we’re continuing to drive about an hour each way to work,” Lopez said. “We could always purchase a home at a higher interest rate, then refinance it if the interest rates go down, but that’s an if and when situation.
“When you’re playing with that much money, it doesn’t seem like a risk I’m willing to take right now.”
Changing math
Since the start of 2020, the median price of a single-family home in Dallas-Fort Worth has risen more than 50%, according to North Texas Real Estate Information Systems and the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
On top of that, the Federal Reserve has aggressively increased its federal funds rate for more than a year, indirectly driving up mortgage rates. Freddie Mac recorded an average 30-year mortgage rate of 6.96% on July 13.
The result: The monthly principal and interest payment for a median-priced Dallas-Fort Worth home at the average rate with a 20% down payment, before insurance or property taxes, was about $980 in January 2020. In June, it was more than $2,100.
For buyers who purchased a $300,000 home at the record low of 2.65% in January 2021, just buying a house at the same price again at today’s average rate would add almost $900 to their monthly payments before taxes and insurance.
Purchasing a bigger or nicer home would add significantly more to that already-elevated payment, so people with job promotions or babies on the way looking to upgrade to bigger homes may not find a good enough deal to justify it financially.
“It now is significantly more expensive to make these marginal changes that you might have been planning,” said Texas A&M economist Adam Perdue. He and his wife are expecting a baby soon and have considered getting a bigger home, but they too have a low rate on their home in Brazos County and don’t want to take on higher monthly payments.
While prices are declining slightly year to year, Texas A&M economists don’t expect them to return to where they were at the beginning of 2020. Rates are also expected to decline, but not back down to the record lows. Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts rates in the 5% range by 2024.
Still buying and selling
As mortgage rates rose and sellers held back, new single-family home listings in Dallas-Fort Worth dropped 22% between June 2022 to June 2023, limiting options for people looking to buy.
Buyers with an immediate need to move are still purchasing homes, and people continue to move to Texas from other parts of the country. Local home sales recorded in June were down only slightly from a year before.
“We have a ton of buyers that are wanting to buy a home,” Michael said, adding that buyers may choose to refinance later. “You have people getting married, having babies, kids going to college.”
More casual buyers without an immediate need to move may no longer be shopping, said Drew Kayes, who heads up homebuying company Opendoor’s operations in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston.
“A lot of those folks right now are not in the market because they’re locked into a sub-4% rate, and that’s more of a luxury move than a necessity move,” Kayes said.
Jason Dickson, co-owner of North Texas-based Nuwave Lending, said while it may be hard for homeowners to leave their current home, it may be worth it for them to tap into equity they’ve built up during the pandemic to pay off credit card debt or auto loans.
“They’ll gladly sign up for the higher interest rate in the new house if they have the benefit of taking that equity and improving their overall financial position,” he said.
A silver lining
Nipun Gadhok, 31, doesn’t want to lose his 3% rate but hopes to purchase a new home for him and his girlfriend next year.
Gadhok, a development manager for the Nehemiah Co., a local firm behind residential communities throughout Dallas-Fort Worth, purchased his five-bedroom home in Fort Worth’s Augusta Meadows neighborhood in 2021.
He’s looking to buy a home along the outskirts of the metro area, potentially in one of his company’s developments on the east end of Mesquite. Knowing he has a rate he may never get again, he’s not planning to sell his Fort Worth house.
He intends to keep it as a rental property and is already renting out rooms to four other tenants. With mortgage rates causing many people to rent, that’s turning out to be a good side hustle.
“People are choosing to rent, they are not as much inclined to buy,” Gadhok said. “The rates really helped me out in the way that I’m not having problems with finding tenants.”
