Grocers are watching consumers carefully over the next few days, calculating that this may be a transition week to calmer shopping patterns.
“We think consumers may take a step back and the pantry stocking may settle out as families are home and people are cooking meals,” said Doug Baker, vice president at The Food Marketing Institute, a research and trade group that works with the U.S. grocery industry.
The supply chain is one to two days behind demand, and retailers say they are working as fast as they can both in their warehouses and in stores to restock shelves.
“A major grocer told me that if he added any more people in the warehouse, they’d be tripping over themselves,” Baker said.
This week could determine longer-term trends while the coronavirus continues to disrupt life, he said. “It’s very important that people know that the supply chain is not broken,” Baker said.
However, Dallas, Houston and Austin ordered bars and restaurants to close and only offer to-go and drive-through meals this week, which could put added pressure on grocery stores, said Christy Lara, a spokeswoman in Texas for Albertsons and Tom Thumb.
“Everything is changing daily,” Lara said. “It’s too early to say that things are dying down.”
Stores in states and cities without restaurant restrictions may see shopper demand decline, she said. “I want to see what happens the next few days."
Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen turned to Twitter on Tuesday to communicate with shoppers.
“Be patient. Be kind to one another and our associates. Shop responsibly and purchase what you need, knowing that we will continue to replenish,” McMullen said.
Kroger, Tom Thumb and Albertsons have accelerated hiring to keep service levels up in stores. Kroger has hired 2,000 people in the last week, McMullen said Tuesday afternoon on CNBC. He said employees on sick leave and those who have to be quarantined are being paid.
The grocery business is starting to see relief from other industries, Baker said.
- Truck drivers are coming from other industries, such as the restaurant business, to work in the grocery business.
- The industry that delivers food to restaurants and schools has started talking about shifting capacity to the grocery industry because it’s going to have excess food supply.
Manufacturers are also talking about producing fewer versions of the same product in order to keep production lines going. An example of that would be skipping the scented bleach products for now and producing plain bleach instead of lavender-scented and other versions, Baker said.
Likewise, in recent years, toilet paper takes up entire aisles in sizes up to 24-roll packs. By picking one size package and eliminating the others, the manufacturing process can be more efficient, he said.
Since January, when China confirmed its first case of coronavirus and the outbreak began to spread globally, Nielsen has recorded record-breaking sales of health and safety products such as medical masks and sanitizers.
After the first U.S. reported case of a confirmed person-to-person transmission of the virus on Jan. 30, purchasing was still tame and focused on medical and cleaning supplies.
Nielsen said it was the Feb. 26 press conference led by President Donald Trump that shifted public concern from “reactive health management” to "pantry preparation.”
Shoppers started stocking up on not only cleaning products and over-the-counter cold remedies but also food items with long expiration dates such as dried beans, canned meats and rice.
That timing matches with the crowds in Dallas, where shoppers for the past three weekends have been emptying shelves faster than employees can fill them.
Store employees confirmed that Tuesday’s crowds were smaller. One Target employee in Dallas said that he was surprised the day was calmer, but he’s not ready to say the change is permanent.
Twitter: @MariaHalkias
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