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Still deciding about shopping on Black Friday? So are the experts

The 2020 holiday season is befuddling the forecasters, who think U.S. households will spend a bit more to a lot less than last year.

When it comes to the 2020 holiday season and how consumers are going to spend, the experts are all over the place.

There’s a survey result for everybody’s hunch: a 7% decline from Deloitte, a 15% decline from Accenture, a steeper 20% drop from last year forecast by JLL and a modest increase of 2% from CBRE.

Holiday sales will be up 1.9% from last year, says the International Council of Shopping Centers. The National Retail Federation waited a month past when it usually releases its forecast and still hedged, predicting sales that will be up from 3.6% to 5.2%.

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All that compares to an average holiday sales increase of about 4% the last five years, but there’s nothing average about 2020.

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“We know this holiday season will be unlike any other, and retailers have planned ahead by investing billions of dollars to ensure the health and safety of their employees and customers,” said Matthew Shay, CEO of the retail federation.

Most analysts believe that the retailers who have been selling you food and drink, electronics, sporting goods and home improvements are good to go for the holidays. The ones who sell nonessentials, jewelry, fashion and luxury are hoping emotions will take over and Americans allow themselves to spend to close out this challenging year.

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“We expect a strong finish to the holiday season and will continue to work with municipal and state officials to keep retailers open and the economy moving forward at this critical time,” Shay said.

So far, pandemic holiday shopping looks a lot like regular shopping since the March stay-at-home orders. Stores are requiring shoppers to wear masks and will monitor how many people are in stores at one time.

Online sales are soaring and reached $62.5 billion so far in November, up 32.6% vs. a year ago, according to an update from Adobe Digital Insights on Wednesday.

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Retailers have been offering deep discounts all month, and shoppers are responding.

Black-Friday-like discounts on gift items started at the beginning of the month. Walmart has had weekly discounts this month and is offering online-only Black Friday deals on gaming, cookware, scooters and a hoverboard that started Wednesday evening. Entire purchase discounts range from an extra 35% off at J.C. Penney through Dec. 1 to 50% off at Talbots, which added “We’ve never done this before” to a promotional mailer. Nordstrom has started its Cyber Deals of up to 50% off and more than 80 gifts with purchases in beauty and fragrance.

Target has a deal of buy one, get 50% off in the toy aisle and up to 50% off kitchen appliances. Black Friday doorbuster deals started last Sunday at Best Buy, and, like most retailers, it made the discounts available online, holding back a few doorbusters for Black Friday, like a 50-inch Insignia LED 4K smart TV that will also be available online on Thanksgiving Day.

Trips to stores and malls will be consolidated and efficient as ever. More browsing will happen online. There will be shortages of some things, and there will still be lines.

“With these lower prices, there is no reason not to start crossing off items on your shipping list now. Retailers certainly hope consumers will be shopping early so that their purchases can be shipped and delivered in time,” said Taylor Schreiner, director at Adobe Digital Insights.

Retailers and shopping centers are optimistic and say that after months of the pandemic, they have learned how to accommodate shoppers.

“Traffic has thankfully increased week over week, particularly at The Shops at Park Lane,” said Amanda Lopez, marketing manager for Northwood Retail, which also manages two other local centers, Hillside Village and Prestonwood Place.

Stores have been adding inventory and “prepping for several forms of shopping,” she said — in-store, buy online and pick up in store and curbside pickup.

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The pandemic’s spending shifts will also be obvious in holiday spending as people gravitate away from entertainment, restaurants and travel to things like new TV watching subscriptions, steak instead of ground beef from the grocery, more books and bedding, and anything else that makes being at home more comfortable.

The consumers who can afford all those things probably see recent stock market gains and working from home as a blessing.

Others are still hoping for additional government stimulus before Christmas and worrying about mortgage foreclosure forbearance that runs out Dec. 31. They have filed for jobless claims or watched the totals go up the past two weeks. Consumer confidence about the short-term outlook, business conditions and the job market declined in November while uncertainty was exacerbated by the resurgence of COVID-19, according to The Conference Board’s latest report on Tuesday.

Overall consumer spending is back to pre-pandemic levels, but essential retail is still doing better than nonessential retail like luxury goods, and that may continue through the holidays, said Naveen Jaggi, president of JLL Retail Advisory Services.

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Jaggi wonders whether the optimistic holiday forecasters are right.

“Everything is tied to how the consumer feels,” Jaggi said. “So how can holiday spending be more than in 2019 with fewer jobs, this uncertainty and no government stimulus?”

Twitter: @MariaHalkias

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