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Football recruiting during coronavirus: An underlying national trend that could create chaos for years to come

Dallas-area coaches and recruiting experts predict the fallout won’t be limited to one spring or to only the 2021 class.

Having a couple of rising seniors commit to colleges early this spring was no surprise to Michael Traylor, South Oak Cliff’s football recruiting coordinator.

That’s what happens when a program emphasizes annual on-field success and NCAA pursuits.

But then another of Traylor’s players chose a college in May. And another. And another.

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South Oak Cliff’s upcoming senior class — with five players already pledged to colleges and a few more to come this spring — soon mirrored a national trend, and concern, amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

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High school football players have orally committed to college programs at an increased rate this spring. The NCAA prohibiting in-person evaluations and campus visits amplified pressures to secure a roster spot.

The fallout of the boom, Dallas-area coaches and recruiting experts predict, won’t be limited to one spring of limited recruiting exposure or to only the 2021 class.

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As many brace for potential changes to the NCAA’s signing periods, transfer rules, scholarship availability and more, Traylor predicts an already fluid college recruiting landscape to become “the wild, wild west.”

“There is no telling what the NCAA is going to do,” DeSoto coach and former SMU assistant Claude Mathis said. “Like the state of Texas, it can be sunny one day, foggy, cold, windy, rainy, you have no idea.

“I expect some things to change with the NCAA. I really do.”

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According to a national recruiting analysis by USA Today, more than 600 players in the 2021 class had orally committed to FBS schools by May 11. That doubled the number of commitments by May 11 in the 2020 class and exceeded the total number of commitments in the timeframe from the previous two classes combined.

Since the NCAA suspended on-campus recruiting and visits in mid-March, 14 “power five” programs have received at least seven oral commitments, according to USA Today.

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In the Dallas area, 26 players in the current SportsDay Top 50 for 2021 had orally committed to college programs as of Friday. Through the same period last cycle, 18 of the area’s top 50 players had pledged.

College recruiting was already an “inexact science,” Cedar Hill recruiting coordinator D.J. Mann said, with non-committable offers and conditional stipulations clouding the process.

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That coronavirus shutdowns altered efforts during the spring — when top Dallas-area high school teams would’ve hosted hundreds of scouts to talk with players and watch practices — and threatened to upend the economics of higher education, putting the onus on some players to quickly accept an offer, Mann said.

SMU, for example, has 10 players committed to its 2021 class, all from Texas. Seven pledged after April 17, when the UIL announced it would cancel remaining spring sports and activities.

Proximity to home and local familiarity have been part of SMU’s recruiting pitch, especially as NCAA travel limitations have become increasingly uncertain for this recruiting cycle.

Should traditional recruiting tactics resume in the fall, expect another wave of decommitments, coaches said.

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Players who’ve progressed in size and strength since last fall — the most recent chance to log live observation and highlight tape — could garner attention from more, and perhaps more prestigious, schools. So could seniors who debut on varsity after waiting for playing time behind previous star teammates.

Like scholarship offers, oral commitments are non-binding.

“I think we’re going to see what could be the largest amounts of decommitments that we’ve ever seen,” Mann said.

A rush of flipped commitments, coaches said, might just be the tipping point of recruiting chaos for years to come.

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The NCAA’s early signing period each December for football scholarships has become popular since its 2017 introduction.

Players view it as an avenue to confirm their scholarship sooner and to sometimes enroll a semester early. Top college programs secure the majority of their classes before the traditional February signing day and can focus on evaluating younger players during winter visits.

Recruits in the 2021 class may not be ready to sign in December 2020 if the NCAA continues limitations on in-person contacts through the summer or fall. Colleges, then, could spend an extra six-plus weeks courting 2021 players, rather than recruiting the sophomore and junior classes.

“I think we will,” Oklahoma co-offensive coordinator Cale Gundy said when asked whether the Sooners might change their approach to the 2021 periods. “But again, until we know exactly what we’re dealt, you just don’t want to get too tied up into it.”

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Regardless of timing, 2021 players will sign with schools they’ve had scant opportunity to visit.

Most prospects capitalize on free time for travel in the spring. High school football games, practices and playoff runs dictate their availability in the fall. The coronavirus could add further complications.

The NCAA on Wednesday announced it turned down at least until 2021-22 a proposed one-time waiver that would allow college athletes to transfer and be immediately eligible. But if players can’t visit in the fall, some local experts predict the NCAA will face pressure to pass the measure.

“Missing out on [official visits] is definitely going to throw a monkey wrench in the recruiting process,” Duncanville recruiting coordinator Eric Mims Sr. said.

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Dallas-area coaches also worry about scholarship availability.

Because the NCAA won’t institute umbrella guidelines for a 2020 football season, logistics will likely fall to conference commissioners. Should their decisions not yield universal consistency for holding a full fall season, ramifications could reflect the scholarship issues spring sports teams faced.

Some Dallas-area coaches wonder: Would the NCAA grant an extra year of eligibility for seniors or all players on teams that don’t hold a football season, even if some schools did?

Would the NCAA’s 80-scholarships-per-football-team limit expand to account for mass returns at those schools only? If not, would incoming players without formal scholarship guarantees suffer?

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The expanding list of hypothetical scenarios — some more likely than others, but all more likely than most previously imagined — often cross Traylor’s mind as the South Oak Cliff recruiting coordinator sits in his pseudo office at home.

Each day, Traylor uses multiple computer screens to organize player film, recruiting profiles and video conferences with college coaches while fielding calls from concerned parents and players who ask questions with few concrete answers.

“A lot of them are nervous,” Traylor said. “Kids are just trying to ensure they have a spot to go to to ensure their education and their athletic chances.”

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