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Previews and predictions for notable Dallas-area regional final round TXHSFB games

Some of the state’s top teams will clash for a spot in the state semifinals.

A look at notable games around the Dallas area heading into the regional final round of the Texas high school football playoffs...

Hot ticket

Denton Guyer (13-0) vs. Southlake Carroll (13-0)

Where: 2 p.m. Saturday at Justin’s Northwest ISD Stadium

In 6A Division II Region I, it seems every week features a contest between two of the area’s top offenses. This week is no different, as either the No. 2 or No. 3 6A offense in the Dallas area will suffer its first loss of the season.

Carroll will lean on star running back Owen Allen, as it has all year. Allen — who has rushed for 1,977 yards and 35 touchdowns this season — is just 207 yards shy of breaking former Mansfield running back Kennedy Brooks’ Dallas-area record of 7,657 career rushing yards. He’ll face an uphill battle against a Guyer rushing defense that gives up just 122 yards per game.

Guyer looks to make its fourth consecutive state semifinal game behind quarterback Jackson Arnold, who is just shy of 3,000 yards passing with 31 touchdowns this season. Carroll has made the state semis the last two years.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: Denton Guyer 52, Southlake Carroll 45

Spotlight on

Mansfield Timberview (13-0) vs. Longview (13-0)

Where: 7 p.m. Friday at Mesquite’s Memorial Stadium

To earn a spot in the state semifinals for the first time since 2011, Timberview (the No. 2 team in the state) will have to take down the No. 1 team in the state. Timberview leads multiple stat categories among Dallas-area 5A teams, including rushing (312 yards per game), scoring (54 points per game) and scoring defense (14 points per game). Meanwhile, Longview averages 47 points per game offensively and hasn’t sacrificed more than 19 in any given game this season.

Longview hasn’t made the state semifinals since 2018 when it went a perfect 16-0 to win the 6A Division II state title. Both teams are undefeated heading into the matchup.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: Longview 42, Mansfield Timberview 35

Prosper (12-1) vs. Lewisville (12-1)

Where: 2 p.m. Saturday at McKinney ISD Stadium

Two of the area’s top defenses will fight for a spot in the regional final for the first time in decades. Lewisville, which ranks sixth in the Dallas area in 6A overall defense and second in points allowed, has given up just three points in its last two contests against Arlington Martin and Keller. Prosper’s defense is also top-10 in the area and No. 5 in points allowed at 15 per game.

Lewisville is back in the fourth round for the first time since 1996 when it won the state title with its current head coach Michael Odle as its starting quarterback. Prosper has lost in the fourth round the last three years and has not made the fifth round since it won the 3A Division I state title in 2008.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: Lewisville 17, Prosper 14

Duncanville (12-0) vs. Spring Westfield (12-1)

Where: 3 p.m. Saturday at Georgetown

In a top-10 state matchup, Duncanville will compete for a spot in the state semifinals for the fifth consecutive year. Reginald Samples’ team has torn through its first three playoff matchups, outscoring its opponents by a total of 134 points. Duncanville’s offense, led by running back Caden Durham (1,412 yards and 26 touchdowns), has put up 44 points per game this season while its defense is the best in the Dallas area, giving up just 159 yards and nine points on average.

Spring Westfield’s offense has been explosive, averaging 51 points per game this season, but showed signs of weakness against Waxahachie in the regional semifinals where it scored a season-low 10 points. Its only loss this season came to reigning state champion Galena Park North Shore.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: Duncanville 42, Spring Westfield 32

DeSoto (11-2) vs. Killeen Harker Heights (12-1)

Where: 7 p.m. Friday at Baylor’s McLane Stadium

When DeSoto and Harker Heights faced off last year in the bi-district round, DeSoto cruised to a 65-28 win. Now that same opponent stands between DeSoto and its first state semifinal appearance since it won the state championship in 2016.

Harker Heights’ only loss came by one point to Odessa Permian back in September. Since, it has taken down Dallas-area opponents like Mansfield and Royse City.

At the same time, DeSoto’s offense has taken off, especially Texas pledge Johntay Cook, who has 368 yards receiving and four touchdowns in the playoffs.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: DeSoto 52, Harker Heights 28

Argyle (13-0) vs. Abilene Wylie (10-3)

Where: 7 p.m. Friday at Tarleton State’s Memorial Stadium

Argyle’s perfect start to its first season in 5A continued with its second win over Grapevine this season in the regional semifinals. To get back to the regional finals for the first time since it won the state title in 2020, it’ll have to get by Abilene Wylie — a team that started its season 2-3 before winning eight straight. Wylie’s only win over a Dallas-area team was against Colleyville Heritage in the second round.

It’ll face a challenge in Argyle’s dominant run game led by RJ Bunnell, who has 1,421 yards and 18 touchdowns this year.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: Argyle 42, Abilene Wylie 14

South Oak Cliff (10-3) vs. Melissa (11-2)

Where: 7 p.m. Friday at Choctaw Stadium

Melissa and South Oak Cliff’s strengths couldn’t be more opposite. Melissa’s offense ranks third among area 5A teams led by quarterback Trever Ham, who has thrown for 3,426 yards and 44 touchdowns and wide receiver Karson Maynard, who has over 1,000 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns.

South Oak Cliff’s defense ranks fifth in the area and second in scoring, as it gives up an average of 15 points per game. It’s led by Texas commits Malik Muhammad and Billy Walton at cornerback and defensive line.

Melissa lost in the fourth round last year and hasn’t made the state semifinals since 2011 when it won the state championship. SOC looks to get back to the fifth round for the second consecutive year.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: South Oak Cliff 24, Melissa 17

China Spring (12-1) vs. Anna (13-0)

Where: 7:30 p.m. Friday at Fort Worth’s Crowley ISD Stadium

Anna’s storybook season continues against the reigning state champion. After defeating Celina twice, Anna earned a spot in the regional final for the first time in school history, riding a perfect 13-0 start.

Its offense leads the area, averaging 417 yards per game thanks to breakout star quarterback Evan Bullock, who has thrown for 3,771 yards, 51 touchdowns and just five interceptions on the year. It also has three receivers in the top six among Dallas-area 4A teams — Jacob Emmers, Jonathan Brown and Sean Steens.

China Spring’s only loss of the year came to Parish Episcopal, and it has scored at least 38 points in all of its wins.

Assimakopoulos’ prediction: Anna 32, China Spring 28

On Twitter: @Lassimak

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