Updated at 10 a.m. July 22: Revised to include Tarrant County’s coronavirus numbers.
By October, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in North Texas could return to levels not seen since January and last summer, according to the latest forecasting model from UT Southwestern Medical Center.
That’s especially true if vaccination rates remain slow and the public doesn’t step up use of masks and social distancing, experts say.
“We really find ourselves at an important crossroads and decision point, where we have this narrow window to step into action to help turn the tide of these rising cases,” said Dr. James Cutrell, an infectious-disease expert at UTSW.
The model, which used data as of Monday, predicts that Dallas County will see roughly 600 new coronavirus infections a day by Aug. 9. UTSW’s previous model, which used data as of July 13, projected that the county would see roughly 200 new infections a day by Aug. 2.
Hospitalizations in North Texas have risen 89% over the last two weeks and 156% over the last month, according to the latest model. Data from the state indicates that 925 people in the 19-county region that includes Dallas-Fort Worth are hospitalized with the virus as of Monday.
UTSW’s updated model predicts that Dallas County alone will have 400-500 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 cases by Aug. 9.
Dr. Stephen Love, president and CEO of the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, said that if the model’s predictions for August play out, hospitals will have enough beds and PPE but could face staffing issues, as they did in January.
Love noted that traveling nurses provided by the state to bolster existing hospital staffing in January are no longer in place.
Two main reasons for spikes
Cutrell said the spike in cases and hospitalizations has been caused primarily by slowing vaccination rates and the growing prominence of the highly contagious delta variant.
The delta variant is 40% to 50% more transmissible than the original, non-mutated strain of coronavirus, Cutrell said. It can also cause more severe illness in the unvaccinated.
According to the state, 1,307,362 people in Dallas County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 1,119,856 — 51.3% of the county’s population 12 and older — are fully vaccinated.
But the pace of vaccinations has slowed, especially among people under the age of 65, who now make up the largest share of hospital admissions in most North Texas counties, Cutrell said.
The virus is taking a toll on the unvaccinated statewide.
Of the 8,787 Texans who died of COVID-19 from Feb. 8 to July 14, at least 43 were fully vaccinated, The Texas Tribune reported Wednesday, citing preliminary data from the Texas Department of State Health Services. That means 99.5% of those deaths were among unvaccinated people, the Tribune reported.
“We still have a chance to bend the curve and to avoid these large surges in cases and hospitalizations,” Cutrell said. “But I want to emphasize that the time to act is now.”
Latest Dallas County report
Dallas County reported five more COVID-19 deaths and 659 new coronavirus cases Wednesday.
The latest victims were two Dallas men in their 30s and 70s, a Balch Springs woman in her 50s, a Grand Prairie man in his 70s and a Sunnyvale man in his 80s.
Of the new cases, 546 were confirmed and 113 were probable. The numbers bring the county’s overall case total to 311,380, including 266,820 confirmed and 44,560 probable. The death toll is 4,171.
The average number of new daily cases in the county for the last two weeks is 249. For the previous 14-day period, the average was 154.
Texas
Across the state, 5,240 more cases were reported Wednesday, including 5,056 new cases and 184 older ones recently reported by labs.
The state also reported 33 COVID-19 deaths, raising its toll to 51,709.
Of the new cases, 3,621 were confirmed and 1,435 were probable. Of the older cases, 150 were confirmed and 34 were probable.
The state’s case total is now 3,039,980, including 2,584,324 confirmed and 455,656 probable.
According to the state, 14,402,702 people in Texas have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 12,447,607 — 51.7% of the state’s population 12 and older — are fully vaccinated.
Tarrant County
Tarrant County reported two deaths and 320 cases Wednesday.
No details about the latest victims were available.
The newly reported numbers bring the county’s case total to 268,194, including 223,645 confirmed and 44,549 probable. The death toll is 3,610.
The county reported Wednesday that 321 people were hospitalized with the virus.
According to the state, 974,576 people in Tarrant County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 863,576 — 49.7% of the county’s population 12 and older — are fully vaccinated.
Collin County
The state added one death and 223 cases to Collin County’s totals Wednesday.
No details about the latest victim were available.
Of the new cases, 188 were confirmed and 35 were probable. The numbers bring the county’s case total to 94,430, including 76,931 confirmed and 17,499 probable. The death toll is 856.
According to the state, 596,924 people in Collin County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 531,074 — 61.4% of the county’s population 12 and older — are fully vaccinated.
Denton County
Denton County reported 210 cases Wednesday. No additional deaths were reported.
The newly reported cases bring the county’s case total to 78,476, including 57,277 confirmed and 21,199 probable. The death toll is 628.
According to the state, 465,780 people in Denton County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 413,167 — 55.1% of the county’s population 12 and older — are fully vaccinated.
Other counties
The Texas Department of State Health Services has taken over reporting for these other North Texas counties. In some counties, new data may not be reported every day. The latest numbers are:
- Rockwall County: 12,167 cases (9,617 confirmed and 2,550 probable), 159 deaths.
- Kaufman County: 16,751 cases (13,791 confirmed and 2,960 probable), 268 deaths.
- Ellis County: 23,267 cases (19,054 confirmed and 4,213 probable), 325 deaths.
- Johnson County: 20,360 cases (17,159 confirmed and 3,201 probable), 380 deaths.
