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These 5 charts show how Trump’s trade wars — and wins — are affecting Texas

Texas conducts more international trade than any other state in America

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s no-holds-barred trade agenda has been on full display in recent weeks, whipping global markets up and down with deals on some vital fronts and a deepening of costly skirmishes on others.

The Republican saw the Democrat-run House approve his landmark revamp of the North American Free Trade Agreement, with the GOP-run Senate expected to soon do the same. He re-escalated simmering disputes with Brazil and Argentina over steel and France over a digital tax. He secured a trade truce with China, forgoing some tariffs in exchange for that country pledging to buy more U.S. goods. He tangled with the European Union over airplane subsidies, imposing levies on popular foods and drinks. He pitched a new trade deal with the United Kingdom.

But what does it all mean for Texas businesses and consumers?

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Here are five charts that help explain the Lone Star State impact of Trump’s trade wars and wins, with a particular focus on the significance of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the détente reached with China, the world’s second-largest economy behind the U.S.:

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Texas conducts more international trade than any other state in the U.S., according to U.S. Census Bureau data on imports and exports through the first 10 months of this year. California, home to major West Coast ports, is the only other state that even comes close.

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That means any move by Trump on trade has significant implications for the Lone Star State.

It’s not just how much Texas trades, either. It’s also with whom the state does that cross-border commerce. Mexico is, by far, Texas’ biggest trading partner — which makes sense, given a shared border of more than 1,200 miles. But the state’s next biggest partners are Canada and China.

So any pact that preserves the economic ties enshrined in the initial NAFTA, which went into effect in 1994, is monumental for Texas. And anything that moves the needle with China, a key export market for the state’s farmers and ranchers, is likewise noteworthy.

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The backdrop for those developments is a series of trade wars that have resulted in tit-for-tat tariff battles with countries across the world. The conflict against China stands out for the difficulty of negotiations and the substantial cost inflicted at home and abroad.

Trump is a self-described “tariff man,” who sees the import levies as a valuable tool to gain leverage against other countries. But tariffs are also simply taxes — with duties on, say, Chinese goods typically being paid by U.S. businesses and consumers.

In Texas alone, Trump’s tariff tiffs have already cost nearly $5 billion, according to an analysis of government data by Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, a national coalition of business and farm groups that opposes the levies put into place by the president.

The dispute with China is causing the most strain.

Texans paid more than $324 million in import levies on Chinese goods in just October. Those taxes have covered all manner of goods, ranging from car parts to ball caps to Christmas decorations to coffins to backpacks to light fixtures.

The tab will continue to rise. But not by as much as it could have.

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Several elements of Trump’s trade truce with China remain undefined, in part because the U.S. and China have given varying interpretations of the compromise’s exact nature. One component that is clear is how Trump decided to handle tariffs on Chinese imports.

Most notably, he canceled a 15% tariff that was slated to go into effect on Dec. 15 on $160 billion in Chinese goods.

That tranche, had it gone into effect, would’ve cut deep, particularly for consumers in Texas and beyond. Nearly every item shipped to the U.S. from China would’ve been covered by hefty new tariffs, with toys, electronics and other popular consumer goods costing more as a result.

Trump also rolled back levies on a $120 billion batch of Chinese goods to 7.5% from 15%, providing welcome relief to many industries, including in Texas. But he also left in place 25% tariffs on about $250 billion in Chinese imports.

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China’s pledge to buy a significant amount of American products as part of the detente will be closely watched by Texas farmers and ranchers, who’ve worked hard in recent years to establish a customer base among the country’s burgeoning middle class.

The trade wars have hurt those relationships.

Trade between Texas and China has dropped off noticeably in the first 10 months of this year, as compared to the same time period in recent years, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The tally was $38 billion this year, compared to $54 billion last year.

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Just ask Texas’ sorghum growers, whose product is used in China to make a popular liquor known as baijiu. Exports of sorghum from Texas to China have dropped 92%, comparing the first 10 months of this year to the same time period in 2015.

Those dynamics have made trade with Mexico and Canada all the more important.

Cross-border commerce between Texas and those two countries has actually increased amid Trump’s trade wars, again comparing U.S. Census Bureau data for the first 10 months of this year with the same time period in recent years.

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Texas is an essential cog in a streamlined North American economy that has supply chains running through all three countries.

It was no surprise then that every Texan in the House — 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats — voted in favor of Trump’s U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with many of them hailing it as a win for the state’s manufacturers, farmers and consumers.