Suburban voters, a group that’s helped keep Texas Republicans in power for decades, are now a core component of the Democratic Party’s political resurgence.

Before the 2016 presidential election, efforts by Democrats to woo suburban voters generally were met with the proverbial hand in front of the face. They didn’t want to hear it.

But since the election of President Donald Trump, suburban voters — particularly women— have become one of the fastest growing segments of the Democratic Party, helping to power victories in congressional and state House races and potentially making Texas the biggest battleground state in the country.

Suburban voters are changing the face of the Democratic Party, which in past years heavily depended on turnout from the party’s Black and Hispanic base. The new coalition, which includes an influx of Democratic voters moving here from other states, has put an emphasis on moderate politics, just as parts of the party’s core have increasingly moved to the left.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report, said Hispanic Texans remain a large voting bloc for Democrats, but added that the party was becoming a political “melting pot.”

“We are seeing certainly other demographic areas that I think are just accelerating Texas as a key melting pot state,” she said. “And those demographic shifts give Democrats a real opportunity. It is added in there with those suburban voters, especially suburban women, college-educated suburban women. And do they convince their husbands to come along with them too?”

The boost for Democrats doesn’t occur without risk. Candidates on the November ballot, including presidential candidate Joe Biden and newly minted Senate nominee MJ Hegar of Round Rock, must be able to appeal to tried-and-true Democrats and progressives, or risk entering the general election with a fractured base.

The healing balm for any hurt feelings from the primary is Trump. Democrats, independents and soft Republicans are united in their goal to get the controversial president out of office.

“The glue that holds the Democrats together is Donald Trump,” said Republican consultant Bill Miller. “When Donald Trump is gone, there will be a civil war in the party. That’s not today. That’s in the future.”

Republicans say the loss of suburban voters is problematic but view the notion of Trump losing in Texas as fool’s gold.

“From a presidential election point of view, Texas is a bit of a bear trap for Democrats,” said consultant Vinny Minchillo, who worked for the presidential campaigns of Utah Sen. Mitt Romney.

Trump has taken notice of the suburban shifts.

Last week he made pointed appeals to suburban voters, warning that former Vice President Biden and Democratic Party policies would cause their property values to decrease and crime to rise. His comments were not unlike those made by people opposed to desegregation.

Polls show Trump losing ground with suburban voters, especially college-educated women.

“Your home will go down in value and crime rates will rapidly rise,” Trump said Thursday during a news conference. “Joe Biden and his bosses from the radical left want to significantly multiply what they’re doing now and what will be the end result is you will totally destroy the beautiful suburbs. Suburbia will no longer be as we know it.”

Democrat Lillian Salerno, a former appointee of President Barack Obama and co-host of the Pod Bless Texas podcast, said Trump’s message is indicative of the GOP’s problem with suburban voters.

“It seems like the Republicans aren’t reaching that audience anymore because of messages like ‘the socialists are coming to take your guns,' or other code language,” Salerno said. “That doesn’t work with my sister-in-law who’s a Republican, suburban mom. The educated female and male suburban voter isn’t buying that anymore.”

Battleground suburbia

In 2016 Trump rocked the nation’s political scene with his upset victory over Hillary Clinton, a feat that had the immediate aftermath of jump-starting the movement to resist his policies and hold him to one term.

Trump’s actions in office have alienated some Republicans and independents, especially moderates who supported George W. Bush. But some suburban voters were also concerned about conservative policy proposals, particularly the GOP’s unsuccessful efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

Then in 2018 Texas Democrats found an unlikely champion in former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, who tapped into anti-Trump sentiment to become the Democrats’ most formidable crossover candidate since former Gov. Ann Richards

O’Rourke traveled to all of Texas’ 254 counties, saying that Texans should take the lead in providing quality and affordable health care, overhauling the immigration system, bolstering the education system, and creating protections and entitlements for working families.

Republican incumbent Ted Cruz beat O’Rourke by 2.6%. But O’Rourke won reliably Republican Tarrant County and got a stunning 46% of the vote in reliably red Collin County.

Democrats were able to win several suburban Texas House seats and had strong showing in Dallas-area suburbs. Former NFL player and Dallas lawyer Colin Allred crushed Republican incumbent Pete Sessions in a northern Dallas County district, and Democrat Lizzie Fletcher beat John Culberson in a Houston-area district.

“This was the story of the 2018 midterms, those suburban women,” Taylor said. “And we certainly saw it in Texas, and around Dallas.”

Now Democrats have loftier goals. Polls show a close race in Texas between Biden and Trump.

A Democrat hasn’t won Texas since Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford in 1976, but last week Biden took the extraordinary step of spending $15 million in a Texas television and online ad buy.

A poll by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler conducted at the end of June through early July showed Biden opening a five-point lead on Trump in Texas.

Betty Richie, a member of the Democratic National Committee who leads the group’s Rural Council and is a leader in the Women’s Caucus, said Trump is not the only reason Democratic candidates are performing well in many suburbs.

She pointed to health care, paid family leave and support of abortion rights as reasons Democrats are connecting with women.

“A lot of the things Democrats believe are important to women,” said Richie, who lives in Wichita Falls.

But Republicans are confident that Trump can win Texas.

Last week the president’s campaign hired additional field staffers for Texas and other battleground states.

The campaign, as a fundraising tool, is also raffling off a trip to meet Trump during his next visit to Texas.

Miller said that battle over the suburbs will hinge on Trump.

“You have such a pronounced personality in Donald Trump,” Miller said. “It either works for you or it works against you.”

Republicans, even as some are defecting, still are believed to enjoy a structural advantage in Texas. As remarkable as O’Rourke’s 2018 charge was, he lost to Cruz.

“We hear this from Democrats every cycle,” said Republican political consultant Matthew Langston. “It’s about math. The math dictates Democrats cannot flip this state.”

Langston said that Trump will rebound from his sagging poll numbers, and suburban voters will be reassured about the rest of the GOP ticket.

“I don’t believe Biden is this amazing figure that’s going to energize the Democratic Party,” Langston said.

Managing the big tent

Elsewhere, Senate nominee Hegar hopes suburban voters can help her unseat longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn.

National Democrats are helping the local effort in several congressional races, including 24th Congressional District contest between former Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board trustee Candace Valenzuela, a Democrat, and former Irving mayor Beth Van Duyne. In the rapidly changing 3rd Congressional District in Collin County, Plano lawyer Lulu Seikaly is challenging Republican incumbent Van Taylor.

Hegar, a suburban mom and a decorated military veteran, was backed by national Democrats who see her as a natural progression from the 2018 elections.

She has warned Democrats not to alienate Texans — including her mother — who voted for Trump in 2016 and now have had a change of heart.

Cornyn is trying to hold the GOP’s traditional suburban advantage, dubbing Hegar “Hollywood Hegar” for the financial support she has received outside Texas.

But Hegar must blend her growing suburban support with Black and Hispanic voters in the urban core to win a tough race against Cornyn.

That could prove difficult, given that the interests of suburban and city voters can be very different.

“We’re not going to let John Cornyn spend a lot of money to divide us,” she said. “We’re going to make sure that his greatest nightmare comes true, and that’s a unified voice in Texas against his failed leadership.”

Travis Considine, a spokesman for Cornyn, said Hegar had work to do with suburban voters, given that her Democratic primary runoff opponent, state Sen. Royce West, fought hard in the Dallas and Houston areas. And he said Cornyn had a record that suburban voters would appreciate.

“We are confident that the senator will do well with suburban voters, but he’s not taking anything for granted,” Considine said.

West said that he was willing to meet with Hegar to discuss unifying their political bases.

“Absolutely, I’m willing to meet with her,” West said.