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Texas still leans Republican, but Democrats poised for across-the-board gains

The first week of early voting shows Democrats flooding Dallas-area polling places.

The first week of early voting confirms what many political analysts already knew. Texas is a state that leans Republican, but the political climate gives Democrats a serious chance at flipping the Texas House and winning a statewide race.

Inside the Lone Star State’s legislative districts, Democrats are poised to roll up impressive victories in the suburbs, especially outside of Dallas. In those areas they are boosted by the unpopularity of President Donald Trump, a surge of base Democratic voters, and new Texas voters with a history of voting for Democrats in other states.

While what I’m writing will ruffle Trump loyalists and others ignoring the trends, it’s not shocking to Democratic Party or GOP operatives on the ground. Just like 2018, when they made gains in the Texas Legislature and Congress, the political climate is conducive for a change election.

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The biggest question: How prepared are Democrats to take advantage of a unique political opportunity?

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“It’s perfect weather for them,” Republican consultant Bill Miller said of Democrats, adding that it would be a crushing letdown if they didn’t win a statewide election or seize the Texas House. “This should be their best round of golf.”

Abhi Rahman, a spokesperson for the Texas Democratic Party, said they are encouraged by the first week of early voting.

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“Texas Democrats could not be more thrilled with where we are at,” he said. “Texas Democrats are poised to win up and down the ballot.”

The early-voting numbers tell the story. While there are still two weeks left, Democrats are out-voting Republicans in the overwhelming majority of state House races in the Dallas area. Some Dallas House races are certainly long shots at best for the GOP, including House District 108, where a surge of Democratic Party and anti-Trump voters is expected to lift Joanna Cattanach of Dallas over Republican incumbent Morgan Meyer of University Park.

Meyer and Garland Republican Angie Chen Button are the only two Dallas County Republicans left in the Legislature. Button also has a tough race against Democrat Brandy Chambers of Garland.

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In Collin County, Republicans Matt Shaheen and Jeff Leach, both of Plano, are also at risk of being swept out by the blue wave and the anti-Trump Republican voters along for the ride. Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Van Taylor, who in 2018 won by 10 percentage points, is now expected to have a close contest against Democratic Lulu Seikaly.

“The most interesting question is one that was laughable as recent as 2016 — will there be more Republican state representatives in Dallas County or Democratic state representatives in Collin County?” said David de la Fuente, the senior political analyst in the Social Policy and Politics Program for the think tank called Third Way.

De la Fuente said the early-vote totals are powered by voters who have been waiting to strike a blow against Trump.

“I would keep Texas rated as a ‘lean Republican’ state, but with one of the biggest question marks in the country because we just can’t know enough about how Texas' booming population will change things,” de la Fuente said.

“Texas has about 2 million more registered voters in 2020 than in 2016," he said. "The other big question is just how much will Trump and other Republicans lose whites with college degrees. If these two things go in Democrats' favor, Texas could deliver one of the biggest election night shocks in recent memory.”

Former El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s progressive group, Powered By People, registered voters new to Texas with Democratic voting histories in other states. Now volunteers are working to get them to the polls in an effort to flip the Texas House.

“I’ve got to give a shout out to Beto,” said U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson after meeting with Democratic Senate nominee MJ Hegar at the Disciple Central Community Church in DeSoto.

Of the nearly 2 million additional registered voters in Texas this year, many are new to Texas the state.

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In Dallas County the first six days of early voting found more than 232,900 people voting in person and 45,200 people voting by mail. That’s a total of 278,204 voters. In Tarrant County, a combined 223,300 have voted early, along with 162,450 early voters in Collin County. Statewide, over 3 million Texans voted early during in the first week.

Political operatives have tools to examine the turnout by race, voting history and other modeling techniques. They say that in most places around the urban core, Democratic turnout is higher, but that could change.

The political climate means Dallas-area Republican congressional candidates also are in deep trouble. In District 32, the first week of early voting found more Democrats casting votes than Republicans by a 3-1 margin, according to estimates from a Republican and Democratic consultant studying the data.

In 2018 Democrat Colin Allred beat longtime incumbent Pete Sessions by nearly 7 percentage points to win the seat. With the surge of Democratic Party and anti-Trump voters in the district, Allred’s Republican challenger, Genevieve Collins, is now an underdog. Last week Nathan Gonzales of nonpartisan Inside Election, moved the race from “likely Democratic” to a seat that’s safe for Allred and Democrats.

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Collins' campaign manager, Rob Costello, said it’s too early to make anything out of the early-vote totals and that he was confident Republican voters would show up in force.

Some Democrats warn that Collins is still a threat to Allred. She’s a well-funded candidate who is up on television and has the ability to pour her personal wealth into the campaign.

“If the trend continues, Democrats are going to have wins across the board,” said Democratic strategist Matt Angle.

But he warned that the races could tighten because Republican base voters would make their presence known, particularly on Election Day.

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“Hard partisans are voting on both sides,” Angle said.

Angle added that the costly Texas media markets are likely keeping Democratic presidential candidate Jo Biden from aggressively trying to win Texas, even though trends suggest a close contest.

“In a less expensive state, you would have Biden here guns blazing,” Angle said.

Republicans are still confident that Trump will beat Biden in Texas, though most will concede it won’t be by the 9-point margin he enjoyed over Hillary Clinton.

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Rural and small-town Republican voters are flooding the polls, which signals that the base of the GOP party will show up big for Trump and other Republican candidates. Republicans also rely on a strong Election Day turnout, so it’s premature to make assessments about statewide races. November will be the truest test on whether Texas is indeed a battleground — today and moving forward.

“For a lot of this, it’s too early to tell,” said Republican consultant Matt Langston, acknowledging that in the Dallas area the Democratic Party vote is heavy. "We have nothing to base this week off of … It’s just people are ready to cast their ballots.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott expanded the early-vote period to three weeks. That could mean more votes early and fewer on Election Day, a trend that’s been occurring since voters were able to enjoy casting their ballots in advance.

Abbott, who’s up for reelection in 2022, is certainly studying what’s happening in this year’s dramatic contests.

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The current situation faced by the GOP was crystallized last week by Trump’s Pennsylvania plea.

“Suburban women, will you please like me?” he asked during a rally there. “I saved your damn neighborhood, OK.”

But polls show he’s destroying suburban, down-ballot Republican candidates.