AUSTIN — Texas has set a new record for how many of its residents are in the hospital because of coronavirus, with 11,351 as of Monday.
The previous high of 10,893 was set on July 22. Twelve of Texas’ 22 trauma regions now have high hospitalization rates, triggering an automatic dial-back of restaurants and businesses to half-capacity, from 75%.
“It’s almost universal across the state,” former state health commissioner David Lakey said of the current wave.
Hospitalizations because of COVID-19 have been steadily growing since about a week after Thanksgiving, he noted.
“Obviously, when we hit a new record it is alarming and you have to take that very cautiously and thoughtfully,” said Lakey, now vice chancellor for health affairs and chief medical officer at the University of Texas System.
Because it takes about 10 days for newly infected patients to develop symptoms and show up in hospitals, the effects of family gatherings at Christmas probably still haven’t shown up in the numbers, he said.
Lakey urged increased vigilance and social distancing as another holiday weekend approaches -- New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
“Eliminating those extracurricular activities right now, that’s really important,” Lakey said.
He said he’s hearing fewer cries of anguish from frontline medical personnel than he did during July’s surge in hospitalizations.
“When I talked to our health care providers, they’re busy but they don’t seem to be under the same stress as they were in July,” Lakey said. The July spikes were more pronounced but felt in fewer regions that the current increase, he noted.
Also, “we now have more health care providers from other states and staffing agencies that are providing them some support,” Lakey explained.
North Texas, though, now has “a public health crisis,” warned Steve Love, president and chief executive of the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council.
“This is very serious!” he said in an email. “We are going to see a surge in January on an already existing surge. Many people go to malls, go to restaurants and are quite mobile and seem to think COVID-19 is going away because we have vaccines.”
While hospitals and their employees are grateful for vaccines, Love said it will be six to eight months before they are distributed widely enough for people to begin relaxing current precautions safely.
Asked if Gov. Greg Abbott should impose more restrictions before Friday night’s New Year’s revelry begins, Love did not directly respond.
“With the religious holiday season just over, we will not see hospitalizations for eight to 12 days,” he said. “And add New Year celebrations on that and January will be a deadly month in Texas. People need to heed the warning and wear masks, social distance and stay out of crowds immediately! … If you want to give the gift of life-WEAR A MASK!”
Nearly 3,600 COVID-19 patients are in the hospital in the trade group’s territory -- up by almost 350 from Sunday’s mark, Love said.
ICU beds for adults that have enough hospital staff are in short supply, he said – down to 56 for 19 counties. That includes 18 in Dallas County, 14 in Collin, seven in Denton, six in Tarrant, three in Wise, two in Kaufman and six in the remaining counties, he said.
Spokesmen for Abbott, who has vowed there will be no more shutdowns, did not respond to a request for comment.
As of Monday, 15 of 22 trauma service areas reported 15% or more of their hospital beds were taken up by COVID patients -- the mark that is Abbott’s trigger for closing bars, halting elective surgeries and rolling back earlier relaxations of capacity limits on retail stores, restaurants and other businesses.
The Dallas area’s 23.4% was fourth highest in Texas, behind those of Laredo (37.6%), Lubbock (24%) and Waco (23.8%).
Between Sunday and Monday, the percentages of hospital patients with COVID-19 increased in 14 of the 15 most-stressed trauma regions, according to data compiled by the Department of State Health Services. The only region where there was a decrease was Lufkin.
On Monday, Houston’s trauma region went above 15% for the first time in more than a week – to 15.2%.
Under Abbott’s October executive order, a trauma service area must remain at or above 15% for seven consecutive days for the restrictions to kick in.
Though new cases confirmed by laboratory tests in Texas took a dip on Sunday, to 6,105, they more than doubled on Monday, to 12,841.
That’s not a record. The daily record for new confirmed cases was set last Wednesday, when the department reported 19,185. The seven-day average of new cases declined over the weekend. That and Monday’s rebound may have reflected glitches in testing results that occur around holidays.
Lakey, the former state health commissioner, said predictive models that have “been helpful” in forecasting when peaks will occur in new infections are predicting Texas’ COVID-19 cases will peak during the first week of January.
Speaking of Sunday’s decline in reported new cases, he said, “I’m always a little wary about these data following a big holiday weekend. People want to be home and they don’t want to go get tested. It’s a little harder to get tested. I’d be cautious of over-interpreting these numbers over the holiday.”
