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5 factors that could determine the strength of Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for governor

The former congressman must keep elements of his 2018 campaign against Sen. Ted Cruz, while fixing mess made in 2020 presidential effort.

Beto O’Rourke has had several major political campaigns, including a successful run for Congress that was followed by losing bids for Senate and president of the United States.

His campaign for the seat held by Republican incumbent Greg Abbott comes with political risk. Another loss could end his career as a legitimate candidate for major office in Texas. He also has the challenge of winning in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990. A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race since 1994.

But O’Rourke is the best-known choice for Democrats, since he has a knack for organizing volunteers, raising historic amounts of campaign cash and making emotional connections with voters.

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DeSoto City Manager Brandon Wright (Left) and DeSoto Mayor Rachel L. Proctor (Right)...
DeSoto City Manager Brandon Wright (Left) and DeSoto Mayor Rachel L. Proctor (Right) welcomed former Congressman Beto O’Rourke at Hickory Manor on Monday and thanked him for arranging a $25,000 grant to offset emergency housing costs for the residents at Hickory Manor who were displaced during February’s Winter Storm.(City of DeSoto)

His race against Abbott, who must get by primary challenges from former state Sen. Donald Huffines of Dallas and former Texas Republican Party Chairman Allen West of Garland, has to build on his close but unsuccessful 2018 race against Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz.

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Here are five areas where O’Rourke must excel to be successful against Abbott.

Let Beto be Beto

Largely unknown in Texas before his 2018 contest against Cruz, O’Rourke is now one of the most polarizing figures in Texas politics. He has a strong Democratic Party base, but conservatives consider him a public enemy.

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His standing with Republicans shouldn’t stop him from doing the things that made him a strong candidate. That means he must continue crisscrossing the state for support, staging large rallies that feature his oratory skills and organizing loyal volunteers for his ground game. Of course, he’ll need to continue to be a fundraising dynamo.

Yes, O’Rourke should add additional structure to his campaign to keep him disciplined, but that doesn’t mean he should load up on consultants and pay for meaningless polls.

His chances to win involve his ability to inspire voters and compel them to the polls.

Develop an answer to the gun control question

Texas is a strong gun rights state and O’Rourke’s 2020 debate pledge, “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15″ is not helpful to his campaign for governor.

But he has to stick with his position that such weapons should be banned, or risk being one of those candidates who bends to political pressure. He’s already criticizing Abbott for signing a law that allows Texans to carry guns without a permit.

That won’t help much with Second Amendment advocates, but his Democratic base will understand.

Former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke, left, looked on as former federal Housing and Urban...
Former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke, left, looked on as former federal Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro challenged former Vice President Joe Biden on health care during Thursday night's Democratic Presidential Debate at Texas Southern University in Houston.(Win McNamee / Getty Images)

Get tough with Abbott

In his 2018 race against Cruz, O’Rourke seemed to avoid criticizing Cruz until the end of the campaign, and his lack of toughness could have hurt him for at least one debate.

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For his race for governor, O’Rourke has to constantly make the contrast with Abbott. That will inspire his Democratic base and educate persuadable voters on the difference between the candidates.

The governor’s race is one of the grittiest on the ballot, and O’Rourke should channel his inner Richards, one of the most fierce Democratic Party candidates in history.

Make early appeals to voters of color

Black and Hispanic voters are critical to the success of Democratic candidates, but they are often taken for granted or ignored.

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O’Rourke has done a better job than most in engaging with Black, Hispanic and Asian voters, but there is room for improvement. A stronger turnout among voters of color would have given O’Rourke a victory over Cruz.

He can’t beat Abbott without a strong turnout from nonwhite voters not only in urban areas but places like East Texas, where Black voters aren’t the focus of most political campaigns.

Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke (center) speaks with state Rep. Rafael Anchia...
Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke (center) speaks with state Rep. Rafael Anchia (right) as they stand on the corner of Madison Avenue and Jefferson Boulevard on their way to a town hall meeting at the Texas Theatre in Oak Cliff on Feb. 23.(Ben Torres / Special Contributor)

Craft a clear message

The easy part of running for governor will be pointing out the recent failings of Texas leadership, including the winter storm that left millions without power or water. But as he claims that Texas is headed in the wrong direction, O’Rourke must craft a message that goes farther than rhetoric about unity. He must show Texans how he’ll lead and what policies make the most sense. Health care and education are a good start.

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