The Republican race for Texas attorney general is said to be the marquee contest of the primary season, but incumbent Ken Paxton is shying away from contact.
It’s a safe bet that the embattled Paxton will finish first on March 1, so he’s employing a so-called Rose Garden strategy that has him skipping forums and debates, while hoarding critical campaign cash until the primary runoff. Even then, don’t expect Paxton to be a regular on the debate circuit.
Standing on the same stage with his opponents not only elevates them, but provides the chance for Paxton to be politically wounded by a barrage of criticism.
It’s a familiar approach, one that’s also being used by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in his primary contest against former state Sen. Donald Huffines and former Texas GOP Chairman Allen West. Abbott doesn’t have Paxton’s type of political baggage, but he still doesn’t want to acknowledge opponents that he believes don’t belong on the stage with him.
So the attorney general primary is like one of chef Bobby Flay’s Food Network cooking competitions. Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert must test their recipes against each other before mixing it up with Paxton. The primary is essentially a race for second place, and no candidate has gained sufficient traction.
Maybe it’s election fatigue. Perhaps the candidates haven’t found a message that fires up voters. Whatever the case, the March primaries appear to still be in the holiday season slumber. The new year hasn’t brought any intensity, and it has helped Paxton keep his lead, according to several insiders and consultants interviewed for this column.
“It’s such a sleepy race that hasn’t seemed to get going,” said Republican political consultant Matthew Langston, who last year thought Paxton would be in trouble. “The race is so flat. There’s a chance — and I wouldn’t have said this months ago — that Paxton could win without a runoff.”
Republican consultant and lobbyist Bill Miller agreed.
“They are fighting for a way-back second place,” Miller said. “And for the winner, it could be worse in the runoff.”
Paxton has been dogged with legal problems. He still has a 2015 indictment on securities fraud that hasn’t been settled. That situation hasn’t hurt his political standing. He was reelected in 2018 amid the controversy. His 2022 reelection bid is in question because he’s under federal investigation on allegations of corruption and bribery.
But with only a few weeks before early voting, analysts don’t believe allegations of public corruption will wreck Paxton, who has denied any wrongdoing.
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton for another term. That may dampen arguments from the AG’s rivals that the legal problems facing Paxton could lead to an indictment and help a Democrat win in November.
“If he pulls this off, Paxton may be the smartest political operative we’ve seen in recent Texas history,” Langston said.
Last week two of the contenders — Bush and Guzman — stepped up their outreach with television ads that focused on border security.
Guzman’s ad is a talker. It starts out telling viewers that her father was killed by an illegal immigrant.
Bush’s “Defend Texas” ad says he’ll finish the border wall started by Trump.
The focus on border security and other issues reflect the complexities of the contest, which involves a trio of contenders trying to cast Paxton as too saddled with legal problems to be the GOP nominee, while addressing issues important to the state’s most conservative voters.
Gohmert is perhaps the wild card in the race. He has strong credentials with the state’s most conservative voters. Those voters are very instrumental in Republican primaries.
The congressman known for making controversial statements has yet to do enough to raise his name recognition outside of East Texas, and it’s unclear whether he’ll have the resources to make a charge.
Gohmert had said he would get into the attorney general’s race only if he raised $1 million in 10 days for a campaign, but he didn’t officially hit that mark until weeks after his self-imposed deadline. In contrast, Guzman led the field for the most recent campaign fundraising period with $3.7 million. She’s backed by the powerful political action committee called Texans for Lawsuit Reform. Bush hauled in $2 million, while reports filed last week revealed Paxton raised $2.8 million.
The March 1 race for second is wide open, and much like Paxton, Gohmert speaks the language of the state’s most conservative voters.
The other contenders have been trying to break through for months.
There are Republicans in Texas that are familiar with and like Bush, though his family’s name doesn’t have the relevance it used to in today’s GOP.
Guzman has won statewide elections in the past.
Both candidates have the resources they need to mount a legitimate campaign. The challenge is to create a messages that cast them as a worthy alternative to Paxton.
The candidate that finishes second will get a boost and probably pump new life into the GOP race for attorney general.
The term “Rose Garden campaign” was used by Jimmy Carter in 1976 to describe how President Gerald Ford stayed on White House grounds instead of campaigning outside Washington. Carter, who rose from an unknown peanut farmer and former Georgia governor, went on to win the presidency.
In Texas, then Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst avoided most debates and forums in the 2012 crowded U.S. Senate primary. But Ted Cruz campaigned everywhere, gained tea party support and upset Dewhurst in the midsummer runoff.
Paxton believes he’s better connected to the base of the GOP than Dewhurst was at the time and he doesn’t worry about his opponents becoming darlings of a movement.
Until that dynamic changes, Paxton will remain out of sight, but not out of the minds of his supporters.
