This year’s race for Texas governor is a rare contest in which both political parties are offering their most formidable candidates.
Republican Greg Abbott is seeking his third term as governor. A former Texas Supreme Court justice and state attorney general, he’s one of the most successful statewide candidates in history. In 2014 he crushed Democrat Wendy Davis by 20 points to become governor, the highest percentage of victory for a gubernatorial candidate since 2000, when George W. Bush routed Garry Mauro with 69% of the vote.
Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke is challenging Abbott. The El Paso Democrat stormed onto the statewide scene in 2018, raising over $80 million, but lost a Senate race to Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. That’s the best performance by a Democrat since 1998, when Republican Agricultural Commissioner Rick Perry beat Democratic Comptroller John Sharp by 2.2 percentage points for lieutenant governor.
Both men have had obstacles.
O’Rourke hasn’t won a general election since being elected to Congress. His ill-fated 2020 presidential bid erased some of the mystique of his Senate run. And Republican critics have dubbed him too liberal for Texas.
Abbott is presiding over one of the most tumultuous terms in Texas history. His handling of the pandemic drew critics from both parties. And he was roundly criticized by Democrats for the failure of the state’s electric grid that left millions of Texans without power or water in 2021.
With both candidates expected to raise significant campaign cash, the race for governor is Texas’ marquee contest.
Here are three strategies I expect each candidate to push.
Greg Abbott
Rally conservatives
There are more Republicans in the Texas electorate, so Abbott’s primary task is to get conservative voters to the polls. Though he had mild opposition in this year’s Republican primary, the GOP is united in its disdain for O’Rourke. That means Abbott won’t have trouble unifying the party. In both his campaigns for governor Abbott claimed over 90% of the conservative vote.
Cast O’Rourke as wrong for Texas
Abbott was calling O’Rourke a socialist even before the Democrat became a candidate.
Defining O’Rourke to conservative and moderate voters as out of sync gives Abbott the chance to avoid criticism tossed in his direction.
The governor’s campaign has promised to have a rapid response team traveling across the state to unravel O’Rourke. The decorated ambulance that will be used to follow O’Rourke was unveiled at this month’s Texas Republican Party convention.
Outwork rival on the ground
Unlike most Texas Republicans, Abbott has a stout campaign operation that excels in grassroots politics. While O’Rourke may have the bigger crowds, Abbott has proved adept at the blocking and tackling needed to move voters to the polls. The governor will also make a push for Hispanic voters in South Texas.
Beto O’Rourke
Develop clear message
Since launching his campaign O’Rourke has focused on several themes, including handling of the winter storm, the need for gun safety and the fight for abortion rights. He’s also stressed core issues like education, jobs and health care.
O’Rourke has to boil it down to a snappy, coherent message and hammer it at his rallies.
A terrific orator, O’Rourke can still mix in soaring speeches at larger rallies, but he’s made an effort in this race to stay on message.
Portray Abbott as a failed leader
O’Rourke has promised his supporters that he will aggressively prosecute the case against Abbott. That will likely involve casting the governor as a leader who can’t manage the power grid, made controversial public health decisions during the pandemic and hasn’t done enough to help average Texans.
In criticizing Abbott, O’Rourke will also have to deal with perceptions pushed by Abbott that he’s too liberal to lead Texas. O’Rourke will counter that Abbott is the one pushing policies that are too extreme for most Texans.
Expand Democratic Party base
While appealing to persuadable voters is an honorable goal, the best way to pile up votes is to maximize the support from base Democratic Party voters.
That means running up the score in blue areas such as Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio, and mining areas such as East Texas, where there are significant pockets of Democratic voters.
In 2018, O’Rourke left some Black and Hispanic votes on the sofa. He’ll need those votes to beat Abbott in November.
