The defeat of nine Texas House incumbents and the potential downfall of eight more in Tuesday’s GOP primary could be a watershed moment that redefines the state’s legislative politics.
In addition to discouraging lawmakers from crossing the Republican Party’s most powerful leaders, the result could be a significant step toward transforming the House from a moderating force to a body that embraces the hard-right conservatism of the Senate.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Attorney General Ken Paxton, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and former President Donald Trump were actively involved in numerous House races — each for various reasons. With primary victories against House incumbents, they all had reason to celebrate.
Abbott was the biggest winner, spending more than $6 million to target incumbents who last year blocked his school choice proposal. The governor’s advisers predicted Tuesday’s wins by nine pro-voucher candidates — and the potential for May runoff victories in two more — will give Abbott the support to coax a private school voucherlike plan through the House.
“He’s made it clear that if you cross him, you’re going to have to fight for your reelection,” Austin-based lobbyist and political consultant Bill Miller said. “For some people, that’s like, ‘Bring it on.’ For others, it means, ‘I quit.’”
Paxton’s political clout was not as pronounced but still significant. All three candidates he endorsed for the Court of Criminal Appeals won, though Trump’s support for the challengers likely carried more weight.
Paxton endorsed challengers to 35 House incumbents with mixed results, although his greatest revenge could be yet to come. House Speaker Dade Phelan is fighting for his political survival after being pushed to a runoff by David Covey, the Republican backed by Paxton, Patrick and Trump.
If Phelan loses the May 28 runoff, it would throw House leadership into disarray and potentially alter operations in the lower chamber, which has served as an obstacle against some policies favored by the more conservative Senate.
Phelan will have to face the runoff without support from Abbott, who endorsed his candidacy in 2022 but is expected to remain neutral.
“The winners from last night are the governor, who did better than people expected, and the attorney general, who did better than people will give him credit for doing so,” Miller said. “Those guys look pretty darn good today.”
As for Trump, he remains the dominant force in Texas politics.
“He’s an absolute factor,” Miller said. “In the speaker’s race, Trump made a difference. The speaker is an incumbent and his family has names on buildings, and he still couldn’t pull it off. That’s because of Trump and the outside interests that impacted the race.”
A perfect storm
The primary challenges to House incumbents were the result of a perfect storm of grievances from top Republican leaders.
When 21 House Republicans joined with 63 Democrats to block a school-choice proposal last year, Abbott vowed to take the issue to primary voters.
His pledge came after Paxton promised to strike back at House Republicans who last May voted to impeach him on charges of public corruption and misuse of power.
Other top GOP leaders joined the fray, including Patrick — long a critic of Phelan’s priorities — and Trump.
Of all the Republicans involved in House races, Abbott was the most visible and provided the most financial muscle.
After a $6 million donation from Republican megadonor Jeff Yass, the governor spent $6 million on challengers to 10 incumbents. He also backed candidates in six open seats and 15 like-minded incumbents.
His effort was effective. Based on the House vote that blocked school choice, Abbott needed to pick up 11 votes. He needs to win two seats in runoff elections to get to the 76 votes needed to approve his voucherlike plan, his aides say.
“We feel really good,” said Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political strategist. “We need to win two of the other six.”
Carney said Tuesday night’s results vindicated the governor’s decision to get involved in House races. Abbott staged 69 campaign events on behalf of House challengers and incumbents.
“The chattering class and the self-identified pundits actually were wrong,” Carney said. “When you have a good message and you have people willing to work hard and run good campaigns, the best message is going to win.”
Carney added: “If I was a member of the Legislature and in my primary 80% or more of my primary voters support school choice, I would think twice about voting against my district’s interests.”
Matt Mackowiak, an Austin-based Republican strategist, said the election arrived as Abbott’s popularity was at its apex within the GOP.
“From his perspective and from his team’s perspective, they have to look at last night as a smashing success,” Mackowiak said, adding that many insiders thought it would take two election cycles to move the needle enough to pass school vouchers. “It appears they’re now going to do it with one.”
Abbott’s prominence has been fueled by his defiance on immigration at the border. Last week, Abbott drew national attention by visiting the border with Trump, who praised the governor and said Abbott was on the short list for vice president. Abbott has said he was honored but not interested, saying he has already committed to seeking a fourth term in 2026.
“My commitment is to Texas, and I’m staying in Texas,” Abbott said.
Paxton’s crusade
Paxton’s most-lasting impact in Tuesday’s primaries could be the three candidates he endorsed for the all-Republican, nine-judge Court of Criminal Appeals, the state’s highest criminal court.
Paxton lashed out at three incumbents, Presiding Judge Sharon Keller and Judges Barbara Hervey and Michelle Slaughter, for a 2021 ruling that prohibited his office from unilaterally prosecuting voter fraud cases without input from local authorities. He mounted a sustained campaign against the judges that was financially backed by political allies.
The result was a decisive victory for the Paxton-backed challengers in all three races.
“We’ll look back on the Court of Criminal Appeals race as perhaps an inflection point where our judicial system went from being partisan to hyper-partisan,” Rice political scientist Mark Jones said. “That sends a signal to the other six that if their goal is to run for reelection, they need to be careful about how they think about the decisions they make, and whether or not those decisions can be used against them in a future primary.”
Paxton’s influence on House races was uneven. Of the 35 incumbents he campaigned against for voting to impeach him, he won only three without the aid of Abbott. Four others are in a runoff.
Abbott and Paxton endorsed opposing candidates in 24 races. The governor won 19 of those contests, Paxton won two and the rest are in runoffs.
Paxton also targeted five House Republicans whose districts include Collin County, where he lives and represented for 10 years in the Texas House and two years in the state Senate.
Two incumbents are heading to a runoff and three won their races over Paxton’s favored candidates — particularly Rep. Jeff Leach of Allen, who easily defeated Dare Meis, a former Allen City Council member whose campaign kickoff event included Paxton.
Two other Collin County incumbents — Reps. Matt Shaheen of Plano and Candy Noble of Lucas — won their primaries.
Rep. Justin Holland, R-Rockwall, is in a runoff against former Trump campaign national spokesperson Katrina Pierson. Rep. Frederick Frazier, R-McKinney, is headed into a runoff against Keresa Richardson.
Paxton also backed a challenger against Rep. Morgan Meyer, R-University Park, who holds one of two Dallas County House seats held by Republicans. A top lieutenant of Phelan, Meyer beat Paxton and Trump-backed lawyer Barry Wernick 52% to 48%.
On Dallas radio station AM 660 Wednesday, Paxton framed his attacks on House Republicans who backed impeachment as a “redemption tour” as opposed to vengeance against those who threatened his political power.
Paxton said he “absolutely” would campaign in the runoffs, including against Phelan and other incumbents.
Phelan in trouble
Perhaps the biggest political loser in Tuesday’s election was Speaker Phelan, who is facing a runoff election against Covey, a political newcomer.
Paxton, Patrick and Trump threw their weight behind Covey, leading to a near loss for Phelan, who came in second with 43% of the vote to Covey’s 46%.
“The expiration date on Dade Phelan’s speakership is plainly written on the bottle,” Patrick said, blaming his rival’s lackluster election performance on a failure to pass conservative legislation, including the school voucher plan.
“Last night was a referendum on his leadership and Republican voters, the conservative majority, spoke with great clarity,” Patrick said in a statement.
Mackowiak, the Austin Republican consultant, predicted millions will be spent in the runoff election for the East Texas district that lines a portion of the Louisiana border.
If Phelan can survive what is likely to be a runoff with a dismal turnout, he will need to begin rebuilding a coalition of support among House members to remain speaker, Mackowiak said. However, if the runoffs are a clean sweep for challengers, nearly one-third of the Republican caucus could contain new faces when lawmakers return to the Capitol in 2025.
Patrick said the new House members won’t be kind to Phelan, but Mackowiak said the acrimony could backfire, leading Republican incumbents to become more entrenched against the pugilistic lieutenant governor.
“The single biggest question in Texas politics — and not one we can answer for a while — is, ‘How in the hell are these people going to have a successful legislative session in 10 months?’” Mackowiak said.
Trump’s influence
Trump won and lost state legislative contests.
He won with Mike Olcott over incumbent Rep. Glenn Rogers, R-Graford, and Wes Virdell in the open House District 53 seat. Three other House Trump-endorsed races are in runoffs, including the Phelan-Covey matchup. Trump-backed Brent Hagenbuch is also in a runoff for the open seat being vacated by state Sen, Drew Springer, R-Muenster.
Trump-endorsed Liz Case lost to incumbent Rep. Stan Lambert, R-Abilene, and Wernick fell to Meyer.
The power of the Trump-aligned “America First” wing of the Republican Party showed up Tuesday in several of the state’s U.S. House races, most sharply in the 26th Congressional District that includes parts of Denton County, Wise County and Cooke County.
Gill founded the DC Enquirer, a conservative news site, and worked with father-in-law Dinesh D’Souza on the film 2000 Mules that featured allegations of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.
A distant second place, with about 15% of the vote, went to former Denton County Judge Scott Armey, son of Dick Armey, the former House majority leader who held the seat before Burgess.
In the 12th Congressional District that includes parts of Tarrant and Parker counties, state Rep. Craig Goldman of Fort Worth raised far more money than his Republican rivals in the race to succeed the retiring U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth.
Goldman, who has represented Tarrant County’s District 97 since 2013, also secured endorsements from Abbott and a host of other key Texas Republicans. Even so, he was unable to clear the 50% threshold and will compete in a runoff with Fort Worth businessman John O’Shea, who was backed by Paxton.
Staff writers Joseph Morton and Aarón Torres contributed to this report.
