The Republican power struggle for control of the Texas House casts a bright light on the upcoming overtime period for the 2024 primaries.

Some of the state’s top leaders, including Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, will continue efforts to influence House elections, albeit for different reasons, in contests heading to May 28 runoff elections.

For the other candidates in last week’s primary, it’s on to the November general election, where the U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, will be Texas’ most watched contest.

There’s a critical local runoff for Dallas County sheriff, where incumbent Marian Brown is trying to hold off former Sheriff Lupe Valdez for the Democratic nomination. Because Democrats are firmly in control of Dallas County politics, winning that primary is tantamount to winning the position.

Here are some things to consider as the 2024 election season unfolds.

Allred versus Cruz among the country’s biggest races

The Cruz-Allred Senate race is expected to be one of the costliest contests in the nation and the most competitive up-ballot race in Texas.

Tactical maneuvers between the candidates have been underway since last summer, when Cruz anticipated Allred would ultimately be his Democratic challenger.

Allred emerged from a nine-candidate field to win the nomination without a runoff. He did so by establishing support early in the campaign and raising enough money to stop his primary rivals from gaining traction.

To beat Cruz, Allred must appeal to independents and soft Republicans voters. He has cast himself as a practitioner of bipartisanship. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed him in prior elections, and Allred was able to attract some Republican voters for those elections in a district that was once a GOP stronghold.

Though Cruz is the favorite to win reelection by turning out his conservative base in a state dominated by Republican voters, he’s also reaching for independents and others who in the past voted for Democrats.

Last week he launched Democrats for Cruz, a coalition that includes business leaders, elected officials and students. Former Laredo Mayor Pete Saenz and Presidio County Sheriff Danny Dominguez, both Democrats, endorsed Cruz as part of that effort.

It’s not uncommon for high-level candidates to form alliance groups outside of their typical support bases. Whether the groups have an impact depends on whether those supporters are actually working or just carrying signs at rallies.

In Texas it’s difficult for most statewide candidates to appeal beyond their established political strongholds, so it will be interesting to see which Senate candidate is best at siphoning off the other’s natural support base.

Texas House at war, round 2

Abbott was the biggest winner in the primary fight to control the Texas House.

After primary victories by incumbents and challengers he supported with campaign events and $6 million from his campaign fund, the governor needs only two more victories in six May runoffs to gain enough support to get a private school voucher program through the House — if no incumbents change their position in the 2025 legislative session.

Paxton, who is striking back at House Republicans who last May voted to impeach him, also had a good primary night. Though only eight of his 35 endorsed candidates won last week, it was enough to send a message about the way many GOP voters feel about Paxton’s impeachment.

Perhaps more impactful, the three challengers Paxton endorsed for the all-Republican, nine-judge Court of Criminal Appeals were victorious. The attorney general is angry at the court for a 2021 ruling that prohibits him from prosecuting voter fraud cases without permission from local prosecutors.

The critical runoff race is House Speaker Dade Phelan’s fight for survival in House District 21. The Beaumont Republican ended the March 5 primary 3 percentage points and 1,032 votes behind David Covey, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Paxton.

If Covey defeats Phelan, it will dramatically change Texas politics by forcing a House vote on a new speaker and potentially move the chamber closer to the hard-right policies supported by Patrick and the Senate.

Another key race to watch is Rockwall Republican Rep. Justin Holland’s runoff against Katrina Pierson, the national spokesperson for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Abbott endorsed Pierson two days after the primary. Before then he hadn’t been officially involved in the contest, even though Holland was one of the House Republicans who blocked his school choice proposal.

Paxton is also backing Pierson. Thus far, Trump has not been involved in the race.

Pierson and Holland both got about 39% of the primary vote, setting up what will be a hard-fought contest.

Ally turned rival in Dallas County sheriff race

Lupe Valdez resigned as Dallas County sheriff in 2018 for an unsuccessful challenge to Abbott. She supported Marion Brown as her successor.

Now Valdez, who was sheriff from 2005 to 2017, is trying to wrestle the sheriff’s office away from Brown.

The runoff is expected to be rough and tumble. Valdez has to provide a clear reason why she’s running against a former ally. Brown will likely strike back.

Beating an incumbent is tough, though Valdez is familiar to many Dallas County voters.