Though he was not on the ballot, Gov. Greg Abbott was a big winner in Tuesday’s Republican Party runoff elections.
Combined with results from the March 5 primaries, Abbott helped to unseat eight incumbent Texas House Republicans who last year voted to block his “school choice” proposal that would allow tax dollars to be used for some kids to attend private schools. Five of the incumbents lost in March, and three were defeated Tuesday.
His campaign aides calculated that Abbott needed two runoff victories over challenged incumbents to have the votes necessary to approve a school voucherlike plan when the Legislature convenes next year.
He got what he needed.
“The Texas Legislature now has enough votes to pass school choice,” Abbott said in a statement. “Opponents of school choice can no longer ignore the will of the people.”
Republican political consultant Vinny Minchillo said Abbott had a very successful primary season.
“He did a lot of campaigning. He worked really hard to get what he got on primary night, and he didn’t lift his foot off the gas in the runoff,” Minchillo said.
Abbott’s success in retaliating against lawmakers who blocked his school choice plan increases his political clout and will make it easier for him to push his 2025 agenda through the Legislature.
“The message that he’s sending lawmakers is that he’s in charge,” Minchillo said. “If you look on paper, the Texas governor is not very powerful, but I would say Greg Abbott is the most powerful governor in the country.”
Abbott weighed into the turbulent primary election waters at some risk. In the 2018 GOP primaries, he lost two of the three House races in which he backed candidates.
His performance in this year’s primaries redeemed his earlier forays into legislative politics and set the tone for the rest of his time as governor. Abbott says he intends to run for reelection in 2026.
In the March primary, Abbott helped defeat Republican House incumbents Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, Ernest Bailes of Shepherd, Hugh Shine of Temple, Glenn Rogers of Graford, and Steve Allison of San Antonio.
In Tuesday’s runoff, Abbott successfully targeted Reps. Justin Holland of Heath, DeWayne Burns of Cleburne, and John Kuempel of Seguin.
Abbott did have some setbacks.
Three anti-school voucher incumbents survived Abbott’s onslaught: Rep. Gary VanDeaver of New Boston, who won Tuesday, and Reps. Drew Darby of San Angelo and Stan Lambert of Abilene, who won in March.
Still, observers say the governor achieved his major goal.
“Gov. Abbott pushed all the cards in this primary and runoff election,” said Genevieve Collins, Texas director of Americans for Prosperity, which partnered with Abbott in to push school choice candidates. “This is really the first time he’s gone all in at scale across Texas for candidates to ensure that school choice legislation passes.”
The results are expected to give school-choice supporters a majority in the 150-seat House.
“The Texas House will be transformed and will certainly have more than 76 votes to pass this landmark policy in 2025,” she said.
Abbott’s success in the GOP primaries could boost his influence at the Texas Capitol, but it could also produce lingering resentment among House Republicans sore over the targeting of incumbents.
“He has a lot of people who support him doing this who are ideologically aligned, and then he has a bunch of people kind of on the fence who are just going to go wherever they feel like power and influence are,” said Brendan Steinhauser, an Austin-based political consultant. “That group is going to respond to incentives, and I think Abbott is creating incentives to follow his agenda.”
“For the most part, the Texas House is going to move in Abbott’s direction, whether publicly supporting him or begrudgingly supporting him,” Steinhauser added.
However that unfolds, Abbott is already working on a framework for his 2025 legislative priorities. Dave Carney, his chief campaign strategist, said Abbott will continue to develop and fund border security initiatives, bolster the state’s energy grid and fight against federal overreach, particularly if President Joe Biden is reelected.
Another top legislative priority will be an additional reduction in property taxes. Abbott wants to remove property taxes as a funding source for the maintenance and operating budgets for public schools, with the lost revenue to be made up elsewhere.
More dollars for public schools is expected to be part of a major public education overhaul that will include Abbott’s school choice plan.
“He’s now the power broker in the state of Texas,” Steinhauser said. “He has more influence in Texas politics than anybody else. He’s already working with the Legislature to pass a lot of conservative legislation and has a lot he can talk about, especially with the border and other things. … I think it’ll make him even more of a national figure.”
