The fate of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s push for private school vouchers hinges on the Nov. 5 election, with Republicans and Democrats fighting over a small number of state House seats that will determine if school choice passes or fails.

Abbott poured millions of dollars into this year’s GOP primaries to defeat House incumbents who helped block his plan to spend state money on private schools.

Victories by most of the Abbott-endorsed candidates left the governor’s priority with a two-vote advantage when the Texas House convenes in January for the 2025 session – if there are no surprises in the November election.

Hoping to extend that edge, Abbott has been campaigning with Republican candidates while working to defeat a targeted group of four Democrats on Nov. 5.

“Not only are we going to hold that coalition, we’re going to add to it,” Abbott told The Dallas Morning News this summer. “I feel very confident this November there will be some Democrats’ seats to switch to Republican, so however many school choice votes we have, I’m counting even more as we go into the session.”

Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political strategist, said he also felt confident, “but we have to execute in November.”

“We’ve got to raise the money. We’ve got to do our ground game to turn out our voters and persuade some of the people in the middle,” Carney said.

The fight over whether to provide taxpayer money to help some families pay for private school tuition and related expenses roiled the Legislature in 2023, with Abbott designating school choice as an emergency item and calling multiple special sessions in a futile bid to force passage. The Senate backed Abbott, the House balked and the governor retaliated by campaigning aggressively against fellow Republicans in hope of a different outcome in the House.

For Democrats and public school advocates who oppose vouchers, the November election is a line in the sand, but defeating the Abbott priority will likely require flipping several Republican House seats. That’s not an easy task in a state where most legislative districts are drawn to protect incumbents and Republicans hold an 86-63 majority in the House, with one seat vacant.

“Our strategy to succeed is to make up for the loss that moderate Republicans experienced in their primary, when Abbott went after them,” said Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party. “We estimate that we need to flip maybe three seats in order to be able to have enough votes to stop the voucher plan that the governor is trying to force upon the people in the state of Texas.”

“It’s not an easy task,” Hinojosa added. “We believe we can possibly win.”

Democrats are swimming upstream against a tide of money to Republican candidates from multiple sources, including school choice supporters.

“We’re out talking to people,” said Zeph Capo, president of the Texas American Federation of Teachers, which opposes voucher plans as a drain on public education funding. “We’re doing what we can and what their money can’t, like having conversations with people and working at a grassroots level to make sure everyone understands what’s at stake.”

Abbott insists a school choice plan will not harm public education.

“We’ll provide more funding for public education and we’ll provide more money for teacher pay raises,” he said. “We will provide more to make our public schools among the very best in the country. At the same time we’ll provide universal school choice for the parents of Texas so they can ensure their child is going to the school that’s best for them.”

A coalition of Democrats and rural Republicans in the House has served for years as a firewall blocking a variety of school voucher plans, but Abbott’s success in this year’s primaries has flipped the script. Opponents, bracing for passage, are looking for ways to mitigate a school choice plan’s impact on public schools.

According to the Longview News-Journal, Rep. Jay Dean, R-Longview and an opponent of vouchers, told Pine Tree ISD board trustees last month that the “train on school vouchers is going to leave the station.”

“I’ve been working really hard the last several months on how we minimize the impact of that on our great rural public schools,” Dean said.

Dean did not return three telephone calls.

Past proposals to limit the reach of school choice initiatives, and perhaps gain support from Republican lawmakers, included allowing rural counties to opt out, but voucher advocates believe they have the votes to pass a more substantial plan.

With the odds against voucher opponents, Capo said he expects November’s election fight to extend into the legislative session that begins in January.

“We will go down swinging,” Capo said. “Somebody has to stand up for schools, kids, teachers, and the people that are actually there on the ground. The profiteers, the business folks, the well heeled, they’ve got plenty of people standing up for them in Austin.”

Scott Jensen, senior strategist for the pro-voucher group American Federation for Children, said school choice would give parents needed options for their children’s education.

“We recognized coming out of COVID that there are a lot of kids who are struggling and that it’s not possible for one type of school to meet every kid’s needs,” he said.

This isn’t a new fight

Abbott and many Republicans have long sought to allow Texas students to use public money to attend private schools.

One of the final proposals advanced in the 2023 regular and special legislative sessions, developed by Republican Rep. Brad Buckley of Salado, would have developed education savings accounts to provide up to $10,500 a year per student for private school tuition or other private education expenses. Home-schooled students could receive $1,000. The limited proposal would have been available to about 47,000 of Texas’ more than 6 million school-age children.

The plan failed, as Abbott was unable to break a coalition of urban Democrats and rural Republicans in the House who oppose vouchers.

Taking the issue to voters in the March primary, Abbott spent roughly $6 million to support incumbents who backed his voucherlike plan and challengers to Republican incumbents who didn’t. His spending matched a $6 million campaign donation – the largest in Texas history – from Pennsylvania TikTok investor Jeff Yass.

Yass, a megadonor to Republican candidates who has made school choice his top issue, gave Abbott’s campaign another $4 million in April to use in runoff elections.

Abbott helped unseat eight incumbent House Republicans who last year voted to block his school choice proposal. He figures he has at least 76 votes in the 150-member House, just enough to approve his plan.

“Opponents of school choice can no longer ignore the will of the people,” Abbott said after the May primary runoffs.

Carney concedes that “you can’t take anything for granted” in Texas legislative politics, so school choice advocates are working to protect supportive incumbents and target potentially vulnerable Democrats to pad their advantage.

Abbott and other Republicans see an opportunity to gain seats in South Texas. They are backing Republican Don McLaughlin against Democrat Cecilia Castellano in the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Rep. Tracy King. That district includes Uvalde, where a gunman killed 21 elementary school children and teachers in 2022. It is one of the few swing areas in Texas.

Abbott and Republicans also covet the seat now held by retiring Democrat Abel Herrero of Robstown. The governor is supporting Denise Villalobos over Democrat Solomon Ortiz.

Two other Democratic incumbents are on Abbott’s radar – Rep. Eddie Morales Jr. of Eagle Pass, who is opposed by Republican Robert Garza, and Rep. Mihaela Plesa in Collin County against Steve Kinard.

Democrats are also on the offensive

In an effort to block vouchers, Democrats are targeting Republican Reps. Morgan Meyer of University Park, who’s in a rematch against Dallas Democrat Elizabeth Ginsberg, and Angie Chen Button, R-Richardson, who is opposed by Democrat Averie Bishop.

Button and Meyer are Dallas County’s lone Republicans in the Texas House. Both support Abbott’s school choice plan.

Bishop told The News that Button’s support for vouchers and Texas abortion restrictions are top reasons she should be rejected by voters.

“I volunteer substitute taught in many of the schools that are now shut down due to underfunding in the district,” Bishop said. “The basic allotment hasn’t increased in six years, and families here in North Texas believe that the school voucher scam is giving them the freedom of choice, but true freedom is getting to send your child to a high quality, free public school education without the stress of having to finance a private education.”

Button said she’s always been a strong proponent of public education.

“Bottom line, we’ve got to give more money to public schools, but we also have to give parents choices,” Button said. “I believe education savings accounts give parents more choices.”

During a Dallas campaign stop Tuesday, Abbott told a crowd in the Escondido TexMex restaurant that Meyer, particularly as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, had been a strong partner in reducing property taxes, securing the border and keeping Texans safe.

“We’ve got to have him back in Austin,” Abbott said. “We’ve got to have him there to lead Austin the way you want things led back home, because it’s you and your family values on the ballot on Election Day.”

Abbott, who earlier in the day campaigned in Universal City for Rep. John Lujan, R-San Antonio, did not mention his push for school choice. Meyer didn’t mention it either but said it was important to fully fund public education.

A spokesman for Abbott’s campaign said he’s expected to campaign in Dallas County next week for Button.

Plesa, the only House Democrat who hails from Collin County, could be a tough target for Republicans.

Plesa, an opponent of Abbott’s school plan, is seeking a second term after defeating Republican Jamee Jolly 50% to 49% in 2022. Plesa’s district, won by President Joe Biden in 2020, is trending toward Democrats, analysts say.

Abbott and his allies are working to protect targeted GOP incumbents, including Reps. Ben Bumgarner of Flower Mound, John Lujan of San Antonio, Janie Lopez of San Benito and Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock.

Warning against overconfidence

While school choice played a pivotal role in many GOP primary contests, it is competing for attention with several issues in the general election, including border security, abortion and the presidential race.

“I am very bullish on that,” said Genevieve Collins, state director of Americans for Prosperity, which promotes voucherlike proposals. “School choice was on the ballot in the primary season. It’s less so during the general election. However, there’s certainly a lot of areas in the state that are focused on it, and it’s at least a top-three issue.”

Carney, Abbott’s political strategist, said the governor plans to spend “between $2 and $3 million dollars” from his campaign fund to boost Republican House candidates.

Abbott has given Meyer more than $50,000 and has sent $43,370 to Button and $17,800 to Kinard, Plesa’s Republican opponent in Collin County, according to financial disclosures.

Most Republican candidates, particularly incumbents, enjoy a strong fundraising advantage over Democrats, with groups like Texans for Lawsuit Reform directing money to the GOP ticket. Earlier this month, billionaire Elon Musk contributed $1 million to Texans for Lawsuit Reform, which has pushed tort reform and other issues involving civil and criminal justice.

Democrats are left at a disadvantage, said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.

“They have no real counterbalance to Greg Abbott and Texans for Lawsuit Reform,” he said.

Though Republicans were at odds in the primary, their unity now helps Abbott get his voucher plan.

“The big issue is can we grow the caucus?” Carney said. “That’s what we’re hoping to do.”

Carney said it helps that House Speaker Dade Phelan has made school choice a priority for next year’s legislative session, but he warned against overconfidence.

“Predicting what the Legislature is going to do is cray-cray,” he said.