A top public health expert in Dallas on Thursday said officials’ early actions to implement stay-at-home orders were “extremely successful” in dampening what could have been a quick spread of the coronavirus.
Dr. Trish Perl, chief of infectious diseases at UT Southwestern Medical Center, told council members in a committee meeting that cases of the coronavirus doubled every two days when it first began spreading in Dallas.
Regulations helped quickly slow that number down. In North Texas, the coronavirus is now doubling roughly every 20 days, she said. The orders prevented many residents from getting sick “who probably in fact would not have been able to be cared for in the health care system.”
”It wasn’t that we didn’t have the big event," Perl said. “It was that we prevented New York City from happening in Dallas.”
Perl said the coronavirus is about as infectious as the Spanish flu with a mortality rate of anywhere from 0.5 to 3%.
When the coronavirus first began to spread in Dallas, someone infected with COVID-19 transmitted the virus to an average of four people. The goal is to get the number down to less than one, which would mean the epidemic “will eventually burn out,” Perl said.
Dallas County on Thursday reported 183 more known cases of the coronavirus, bringing the total to 8,273. The county has had 203 deaths. The use of ICU beds, ventilators and beds in 25 city hospitals have slowly crept up, according to the mayor’s office.
Perl said she expects numbers to steadily rise, and warned city officials that infections could spike in the next two to three months if they don’t effectively use mitigation strategies. A model developed by a Philadelphia-based research team showed that cities reopening their economies, including Dallas, are at risk of a second wave in the next four weeks, The Washington Post reported.
“This is wave one of this,” Perl said. “Do I think it could come back? Yes, absolutely. I’m not sure when.”
Perl urged council members to continue to help send the message that Dallas residents need to take the virus seriously, practice social distancing, wash their hands and wear masks.
She said messages from the governor and federal officials have confused residents. She encouraged elected officials to emphasize that Dallas is different than other parts of Texas.
“It is uncomfortable to wear masks. We’re not going to say it’s not a pain in the neck,” Perl said. “But it makes a difference, and it is important, and you need to do it.”
“It’s not about your rights,” Perl added. “It’s about protecting everyone around you. It’s about protecting your grandmother.”
Council member Jennifer Gates said the mixed messages from public officials has left residents skeptical of what they’re hearing from government officials.
“It erodes the public trust. The same people that are telling them to put a mask on two months ago were telling them, ‘Don’t put a mask on,’” Gates said. “The information is constantly changing.”
Dallas County is still in the “red zone” on the threat level of the coronavirus since it hasn’t seen the 14-day decrease of cases recommended by health experts before businesses begin to reopen, said Dr. Philip Huang, the county’s health and human services director. The red zone is the highest threat level for community transmission.
The state’s order to allow businesses to reopen has also made it challenging for Dallas staffers to enforce regulations and slow the spread of the virus, said Assistant City Manager Jon Fortune.
The city has issued just 35 violations out of more than 19,000 calls about emergency regulation violations, according to the city.
Park director John Jenkins on Wednesday announced the city will reopen dog parks, disc golf and skate parks Friday before Memorial Day weekend.
Fortune advised people to continue to avoid gatherings and maintain distance from others. He said health experts have made it clear “we’re not out of the woodwork yet.”
“I don’t think it’s any more complicated than that,” Fortune said. “I think the challenge is when you have stores that are opening and they’re allowing people in the stores, you get a false sense of security that everything is fine.”
