The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area could be — for the first time — home to more than 8 million people, according to the latest Texas Demographic Center population estimates.
As of Jan. 1, D-FW had an estimated 8,060,528 inhabitants. The D-FW area was responsible for 36% of Texas’ population growth in the last three years by adding over 423,000 inhabitants in that period, according to data released this month.
“The four metropolitan areas that we call the Texas Triangle are now 20.5 [million] people,” said Cullum Clark, director of the Bush Institute-SMU Growth Initiative. “So it’s just over two-thirds of all the people in the state and clearly growing faster than the rest of the state.”
Much of the state’s booming growth — there are now about 30 million people living in Texas — comes as suburban communities expand. More than 14 million people live in suburban cities throughout Texas, making up about 44% of the state’s population, according to the report.
“The growth rates are kind of breathtaking,” Clark said, noting significant population gains in Collin and Denton counties to the north and Rockwall and Kaufman counties to the east.
Dallas County grew by only 0.9%. But Kaufman and Rockwall counties, northeast and southeast of Dallas, saw significant percentage population gains of 22.3% and 14.3%, respectively, from 2020 to 2023.
Collin County has been the epicenter of the state’s largest population boom in the last three years, according to the database. It added over 125,000 people from 2020 to January.
Denton was third in the state for attracting new residents, with over 89,000 new neighbors in the same period. Tarrant added over 56,000 inhabitants, ranking sixth in counties with the largest population growth from 2020 to 2023.
Dallas County is home to 2.6 million people, with a population gain of over 23,000 people in the last three years.
North Texas cities
In Collin County, Celina, now home to 33,000 residents, nearly doubled its population in three years; Princeton’s population during the same time grew by 55%, Anna’s grew by 52%, Van Alstyne by 51% and Melissa by 50.6%. Prosper has seen a nearly 35% increase in residents since 2020.
The city of Dallas’ 1.3 million residents as of January saw fewer new neighbors relative to its surrounding cities, with only a 0.4% increase since 2020. Fort Worth, with a population of 967,000, attracted a 5.3% increase over the same period.
A few cities saw a drop in population in the past three years, including the Park Cities.
Highland Park, home to more than 8,600 people as of January, lost about 2.6% of its population since 2020.
University Park, with a population of a little over 25,000, lost about 0.7% of its residents since 2020.
About the data
The new estimates are in line with previous reports from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Collin, Denton and Tarrant counties all experienced domestic and international migration. But Dallas County’s meager growth was mostly due to international migration.
While the census reports indicate that Hispanics have become the largest population in the state, with 40% of the total, the Texas Demographic Center still considers non-Hispanic white residents as the largest population group, with 41%, followed by Hispanics at 39.6%.
“Our estimates are different from those of the U.S. Census Bureau as we use slightly different data and different methods,” Texas Demographer Lloyd Potter said via email. “We also seek and receive feedback from local governments that either confirms or questions our estimates (and when questioned, we try to resolve the concerns).”
The TDC held a webinar this month to provide details on their methodology, which extrapolates population growth based on natural changes — births minus deaths — and net migration.
According to Dr. Helen You, associate director at the TDC, sources include surveys, administrative data, and the Census Bureau’s publicly available data.
Analyzed data includes building permits and voter registrations, and data from agencies such as the Census Bureau and the Texas Secretary of State’s Office.
School enrollment data allow the TDC to predict migration patterns for people younger than 64 years, while Medicare changes are used to estimate the same, but for people 65 and older.
“All these data are highly correlated with population, and instead of using them separately, we put them in a model and try to predict population [changes],” said Dr. You.
Both agencies estimated Texas’ population as of July 2022 to be about 30 million inhabitants, with a difference of around 19,000 more people in the Texas Demographic Center calculus. TDC’s latest estimation says there were more than 30.3 million people in Texas in January 2023.
“We are pretty comparable in terms of accuracy to the Census Bureau estimates,” You said.