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Opinion

Cautious optimism for Venezuelan elections

Polls point to an opposition victory, but a transition is not guaranteed.

Last year, the United States took a diplomatic gamble by lifting oil sanctions on the Venezuelan government in exchange for free elections. This Sunday, the gamble may pay off.

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic. There is also enough evidence to be doubtful. Venezuela has been ruled by Nicolás Maduro since 2013 and his 2018 reelection was widely seen as fraudulent. Even with a landslide victory for the opposition, there are no guarantees.

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Will the elections take place? If they do, how will the votes be counted? What will happen on Monday if the deeply unpopular president refuses to concede? These are questions Venezuelans are asking themselves. About 20% believe Maduro will stay in power, even if the opposition wins.

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Americans, and Texans in particular, should pay close attention to this Sunday’s presidential elections since more than half a million Venezuelans have crossed the southern border in the last four years. Corruption, crime, political turmoil and a ravaged economy are the reasons why more than 8 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014. Authoritarian regimes and corruption are directly linked with immigration surges, as our series The Unraveling of Latin America showed. This is a unique opportunity to turn the tide for the better in this South American nation.

A unified opposition led by presidential candidate Edmundo González, a former diplomat, is leading by double-digit margins against Maduro, and tens of thousands of Venezuelans are walking the streets in support in different parts of the country. Last year’s Barbados accords, an agreement between the Maduro regime and opposition leaders, allowed the U.S. to lift oil sanctions but also called for international monitors during the election process.

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What could go wrong? A lot. If the election results confirm a Maduro defeat, he might not concede that easily. He already has a history of undermining the opposition, including preventing the candidacy of María Corina Machado, the opposition’s most popular figure. Maduro may pull a page from the Guatemala playbook where the political establishment, up to the last minute, tried to stop the democratic transition earlier this year.

Maduro has already promised a “bloodbath” if he loses the election.

A key player who may tilt the scales is Brazilian President Lula da Silva. The leftist leader has supported Maduro in the past but has urged Maduro to stick to the Barbados accords and recently showed concern about Maduro’s choice of words, prompting a toned-down response from the Venezuelan president.

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Opposition leaders have also signaled that they would support an agreement that would allow Maduro to cede power if he loses the election. Such deals are not unusual in Latin American politics and have allowed democratic transitions, like Argentina in the 1980s and Chile in the ‘90s. However, a deal would likely shield Maduro from future prosecution for a long list of alleged abuses, including human rights violations and corruption.

Free elections are not necessarily a reflection of a healthy democracy, but to have a democracy you need elections, and this upcoming Sunday, Venezuela has its best opportunity this century.

If there is a transition, this could be a huge victory for international diplomacy.

Part of our series The Unraveling of Latin America. This editorial examines the Venezuelan presidential election and the possible outcomes.

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