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Debunking trade rumors: Why it doesn’t make sense for Cowboys to make deals for Stefon Diggs or Darius Slay

Even if Dallas can’t keep Amari Cooper or Byron Jones, there are better ways to find replacements.

Roses are red, violets are blue, the NFL combine is almost here, so the crazy trade rumors will find you.

It doesn’t take a poet to figure out that it’s rumor season in the NFL, as media and fans speculate as to how teams are going to attack free agency, the draft and trade market once the new league year begins in March.

The Dallas Cowboys are the most popular franchise in football, and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why they’re constantly involved in the rumor mill. They move eyeballs, and one of the easiest ways to generate traffic is to include the NFL’s most popular team in any rumor — it happens every year.

This year, with Amari Cooper and Byron Jones scheduled to become unrestricted free agents, many have suggested that the Cowboys should be interested in trading for Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs and/or Lions cornerback Darius Slay.

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It’s understandable why some would connect these dots because it follows this logic: If the Cowboys lose Cooper and/or Jones, then it would be wise for them to look for a replacement with similar skill levels. Moreover, Diggs’ and Slay’s current contracts will likely be cheaper than whatever deals Jones and Cooper will agree to this offseason.

The biggest reason it wouldn’t work is because the potential cap savings of this type of move are nullified by the likely loss of draft capital. The Cowboys would essentially be losing two players (Cooper/Jones, plus the draft pick) to gain one in return.

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This type of trade could make sense if Diggs or Slay provided an upgrade over their Cowboys counterpart -- the problem is neither player would be that for Dallas.

Let’s begin with Diggs and Cooper. They are a similar caliber of receiver, but further investigation reveals that Cooper deserves the edge.

Amari CooperStefon Diggs
Size6-1, 211 pounds with 31 1/2-inch arms6 feet, 191 pounds with 31 1/4-inch arms
Athleticism120.9 pSPARQ (67.6 percentile among NFL WRs)113.4 pSPARQ (42 percentile)
Production (career)372 catches for 5,279 yards and 34 TDs387 catches for 4,934 yards and 32 TDs
Production (2019)79 catches for 1,189 yards and 8 TDs67 catches for 1,208 yards and 7 TDs
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First off, Cooper is just bigger and more athletic than Diggs, which makes him a tough matchup for most cornerbacks. Cooper not only has the speed to run away from defensive backs, but he also has the size and strength to win with physicality as well. Diggs obviously has figured out how to produce at a high level, but when you’re splitting hairs between two great players, stuff like that matters.

On top of that, Cooper is the better and more diverse route runner right now. In 2019, Cooper was targeted at least 12 times on six different types of routes (curl, slant, out, go, comeback and post) and his quarterback posted at least a 99 passer rating when targeting him on each route, according to The Quant Edge. Diggs was targeted 12 times on just three different routes (go, curl and out), two of which (go and curl) resulted in a passer rating greater than 99 for his quarterback.

Both players are legitimate No. 1 receivers for their teams and top-10 receivers in the league, but Cooper’s advantages in size, athleticism and route running give him the slight edge over Diggs.

Some have brought up the idea of tagging and trading Cooper (if Dak Prescott has already re-signed) to gain the draft asset needed to trade for Diggs, which makes more sense on paper but brings together a whole host of other complications, such as Cooper not signing his franchise tag in an effort to control where he’s traded to (teams can’t trade a franchise-tagged player until he signs his tender), thus making everything more difficult and less likely to happen.

So again, why would you trade a draft pick for a No. 1 receiver when you can just re-sign a slightly better receiver without having to give away a valuable draft asset?

It just doesn’t make much sense from a team-building perspective, but you know what makes even less sense? Trading for Slay.

Note: Because we don’t have SPARQ data going back to 2013 -- Slay’s draft class -- the athleticism row in the below table replaces SPARQ with a Relative Athletic Score, or RAS. Here’s an explainer if you’re unfamiliar with the methodology. It should also be noted that Jones spent two of his five seasons as a full-time safety, which distorts some of his career production when compared to Slay.

Byron JonesDarius Slay
Size6 feet, 205 pounds with 32-inch arms6 feet, 192 pounds with 32 1/4-inch arms
Athleticism9.96 RAS8.36 RAS
Production (career)Allowed 218 catches on 361 targets for 2,466 yards and 20 TDs to go with 2 INTs and 35 PBUsAllowed 329 catches on 569 targets for 4,184 yards and 28 TDs to go with 19 INTs and 66 PBUs
Production (2019)Allowed 30 catches on 53 targets for 331 yards and 3 TDs to go with 0 INTs and 4 PBUsAllowed 49 catches on 84 targets for 689 yards and 3 TDs to go with 2 INTs and 8 PBUs
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While Slay has been one of the better corners in the NFL for the past half-decade, he took a considerable step back in terms of his production and play-to-play consistency in 2019. Jones, on the other hand, has been one of the most consistent corners for the past two years. Considering Slay is two years older than Jones and about to hit 30, it does bring into question whether his best days are behind him.

In 2019, Slay allowed at least 60 passing yards in six different games while Jones allowed 60 yards just once. And when you look at how each performed against the best receivers, Jones comes out as the clear winner.

Last season, Jones had five games in which he faced receivers who are either definitely or arguably in the top 25 at the position (Michael Thomas, Diggs, Robby Anderson, Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay), and in those games, Jones allowed just nine total receptions on 17 targets for 69 yards.

Slay had six games in which he faced receivers who are either definitely or arguably in the top 25 at the position (Diggs twice, Robinson twice, Cooper and Keenan Allen), allowing 33 receptions on 53 targets for 494 yards.

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When they were pitted against the best, Jones proved to be more consistently effective, which should be enough to overcome Slay’s history of ball production.

Trading for Slay makes even less sense when you take his current contract into account. He is entering the last year of his four-year, $48 million extension he signed in 2016, meaning he’s scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2021. So instead of just paying Jones now, the Cowboys would be trading a valuable draft asset for Slay, who would need to be re-signed or extended in one year anyway.

That’s just not smart business, which is why you can forget about the Cowboys trading for either Diggs or Slay.

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