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Trade up, down or stay put? Our experts break down 3 possible scenarios for the Cowboys in the NFL draft

Is it in the Cowboys’ best interest to lock in with the 17th pick or move it?

As the NFL draft nears, the debate intensifies on whom the Cowboys should select in the first round.

The focus has been on which prospect the team will draft, but don’t ignore the strategy involved.

Do the Cowboys believe it’s in their best interest to lock in at No. 17 and take the best player available? Would they be better off targeting a player and moving up to get him, or sliding back in a two-for-one exchange that would net them a player in a later round?

Here are the cases for trading up, staying put or trading down during Thursday’s first round:

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Trade up

By Calvin Watkins

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Miami running back DeeJay Dallas (13) rushes for yardage as Florida defensive back CJ...
Miami running back DeeJay Dallas (13) rushes for yardage as Florida defensive back CJ Henderson (1) defends during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Aug. 24, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)(Phelan M. Ebenhack / AP)

There is a theory that if you move up in the NFL draft, it’s to get a player of need. If you stay put, you stay true to the board and draft the highest-ranked player on your list.

For the Cowboys, a team that needs defensive help and maybe a center for the future, moving up would be only to snag a player that fulfills the front office’s wants and the team’s needs.

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Drafting a player such as Alabama safety Xavier McKinney, Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson or LSU rush end K’Lavon Chaisson would fulfill a need.

Several players who might be available in the teens, such as Chaisson and McKinney, might be worth moving up one or two spots to get. But everybody has to be unanimous in selecting that player. You don’t move up in the first round to reach for a player.

The compensation also is a tricky part of moving up. If the Cowboys give up 2021 second- and sixth-round picks to move from No. 17 to, say, No. 12, is that worth it? Is it enough or too much?

The Cowboys are in an interesting position at 17 because several other teams near them seek defensive backs or defensive linemen. Denver, at No. 15, could easily become a trade partner because the Broncos seek a wide receiver. And with such a deep wide receiver class, the Broncos could trade down to get their man. Atlanta, picking at No. 16, is looking for defensive back help, so Dallas might have to jump ahead of the Falcons to snag its player.

The Las Vegas Raiders at No. 19 could also jump up or trade one of their two first-round picks to a team looking to move up. Could the Ravens at No. 28 or the 49ers, picking again at No. 31, be willing to move past the Cowboys to grab a pass rusher or defensive back?

The Cowboys should be cautious about giving up too much for the player they want, while making sure a team doesn’t surpass them to select that same player. The Cowboys have had success moving up in the past. So it’s not a bad thing, but only if it’s to land an impactful player.

Trade down

By Michael Gehlken

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Penn State defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos (99) fights off a block by Buffalo offensive...
Penn State defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos (99) fights off a block by Buffalo offensive lineman Evin Ksiezarczyk (67) in the third quarter of an NCAA college football game in State College, Pa., on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019.(Barry Reeger / AP)

This scenario is hardly far-fetched.

On Thursday evening, the Cowboys could find themselves on the clock at No. 17 overall, and neither ex-Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson nor former LSU defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson is available. These two are prospects at Dallas’ top defensive positions of need, and a talent dropoff is widely believed to follow them at cornerback and edge rusher.

If the Cowboys are intent on adding either position in the first round, No. 17 may no longer be the place to do it.

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“That could be a trade-back scenario,” said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah last week when presented with the possibility. “At 17, you’re not going to feel great about the corner or the edge rusher that you get. I think you can trade back and get who you want.”

A trade back, of course, requires an interested partner. But if the Cowboys can swing it, they could move back in the first round, grab an extra pick or two, and add a cornerback such as Utah’s Jaylon Johnson or a defensive end such as Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos at a draft slot that presents better value.

By adding picks from a trade-down, the Cowboys would enhance their ability to get creative and later secure talent they covet.

For example, if the team seeks to upgrade its No. 51 overall pick in Friday’s second round, it could complete a trade to that effect Friday or perhaps even move back into the first round Thursday.

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The San Francisco 49ers’ selection at No. 31 overall is open for business; a gaping hole currently exists between that pick and the Niners’ next one at No. 156 overall in the fifth round. Former Michigan center Cesar Ruiz or a second defensive starter might inspire a move.

Today, the Cowboys don’t have an abundance of ammo to attract a team such as San Francisco.

Trading down can change that.

Stay put

By David Moore

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Dallas Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones speaks during a press conference...
Dallas Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones speaks during a press conference announcing Dallas Cowboys new head coach Mike McCarthy in the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, on Wednesday, January 8, 2020.(Vernon Bryant / Staff Photographer)

Jerry Jones isn’t one to sit while others wheel and deal.

It’s not in his DNA.

That’s part of the reason my esteemed colleagues — OK, esteemed may be a bit strong — argue that the Cowboys will either move up or down in Thursday’s draft. Being content to stay at No. 17 simply doesn’t fit the image most have of the Cowboys owner.

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But here’s something most overlook. It’s been seven years since the Cowboys made a deal on the clock that altered the first round.

Seven.

Odds are that streak will be at eight this time next year.

Sure, it’s fun to speculate that the Cowboys will move up a few spots to grab the player they want instead of letting him slip away. It makes even more sense to argue that Dallas should move back, as it did in 2013, and add a third- or fourth-round pick in the process.

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A majority are likely to embrace this stance. It gains support if you operate under the assumption that defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson and cornerback C.J. Henderson are off the board at No. 17.

There’s a drop to the next plateau at both positions, one that would leave the Cowboys open to charges that they reached at No. 17 if those two were gone and they went with an edge rusher or a corner.

So what?

A team should be criticized if it doesn’t follow its board to take a player in the middle of the first that shouldn’t go until a comparable position in the second. That’s a poor use of resources. Tumbling back 15 spots or so because a team has its sights set on a certain position also is questionable management.

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But if you take a player five or six spots before most project he should be selected, if you can’t execute a deal to move back and assure the player you want will still be there, is moving back a handful of spots really a reach? No.

The Cowboys should stay put.

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