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Film room: 3 Cowboys left out of this year’s NFL Top 100 who could make it in 2021, including a potential first-timer

Dallas put six players on the list this year, but two Cowboys who made the 2019 ranking were left off.

The NFL Top 100 distinguishes itself as a definitive ranking of the best players in the league as voted on by the players, but really, the list is nothing more than a popularity contest.

There are too many issues with the list each year for it not to be considered as such.

How else can it be explained that Todd Gurley (No. 51), who averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry and finished with a career-low rushing total (857 yards) last season, is ranked higher than Zack Martin (No. 55), who was as dominant as ever and had his sixth straight season as an All-Pro?

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Or how about Jimmy Garoppolo (No. 43), who finished 12th in QBR (55.8) and 10th in EPA per play (0.18), ranking three spots ahead of Dak Prescott (No. 46), who finished fourth in QBR (70.2) and fifth in EPA per play (0.22)?

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What about Jaylon Smith (No. 88) ranking ahead of Lavonte David (No. 100), despite the latter being one of the most effective linebackers in the league?

The reality is that skill, consistency and effectiveness take a back seat to popularity on a list like this. Honestly, that makes some sense. Players are so busy during the season that if they don’t play against a certain team, it’s hard for them to accurately gauge how certain players are faring outside of the stat lines and highlights they see on social media.

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Because the Cowboys are the most visible team in the NFL, they’re usually well represented on this list, even if there are big issues with where some of them were slotted. This year was no different. Six Cowboys made the list: Jaylon Smith (No. 88), Tyron Smith (No. 78), Martin (No. 55), Amari Cooper (No. 49), Prescott (No. 46) and Ezekiel Elliott (No. 24). That’s one fewer than both the Ravens and Saints, who tied for the league lead with seven players voted into this year’s top 100.

To take the top spot next year, the Cowboys will need a couple of more players to earn their way onto the list. With that in mind, let’s take a look at three Cowboys who were left out this year who have the best chance of making it in 2021.

DeMarcus Lawrence, DE

I would argue DeMarcus Lawrence is already one of the league’s top 100 players (he’s better than Jadeveon Clowney and Frank Clark), but it’s not a surprise he was left out of the NFL Top 100 after a five-sack season.

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If Lawrence bounces back and crosses the double-digit sacks mark in 2020 as I predict he will, he will undoubtedly find himself on the list like he did in 2018 (No. 34) and 2019 (No. 45).

Lawrence is one of the most well-rounded defensive ends in football, equally potent against the run and pass.

He sets a strong edge and gets off of blocks well as a point-of-attack defender in the run game, and he’s elite at chasing down plays from the backside. He also does an excellent job of knifing through the protection to create disruption and tackles for loss in the backfield. Lawrence finished third among starting edge defenders in run stop percentage in 2019 (9.8% ... behind only Joey Bosa and Trey Flowers), according to Pro Football Focus.

Despite what his sacks total may tell you, Lawrence was still one of the most effective and consistent pass rushers in the league while dealing with adverse circumstances. While battling through shoulder, knee and neck issues and being double-teamed at the fifth-highest rate among edge defenders, Lawrence finished third in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric, which measures how often a pass rusher beats a blocker in 2.5 seconds.

Lawrence commanded the attention of opponent pass protections, creating advantageous rush opportunities for his teammates.

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Lawrence is neither the best athlete nor a physical marvel (6-3, 265 pounds with 33 3/4-inch arms), but his consistency comes from incredible body control, high-level football intelligence and masterful technique.

As long as Lawrence is healthy enough to play a full season, it’s a wise bet that he’ll accumulate 10-plus sacks while continuing to be a high-impact player against the run, which should lead to a return to the NFL Top 100.

La’el Collins, OT

The improvement La’el Collins displayed in 2019 is nothing short of incredible. He went from an inconsistent tackle in 2018 to one of the NFL’s best in 2019.

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The biggest improvement came in pass protection. He allowed the fifth-most pressures (46) among tackles and finished 51st among starters in pass-blocking efficiency (95.6) in 2018, then finished the 2019 season ranked 14th in pass-blocking efficiency (97.5) while nearly cutting his pressures allowed (26) in half.

Collins was more balanced in his pass sets and made sure to not lunge with his punches, resulting in more consistency from snap to snap. Collins also did an excellent job of mixing up his strikes, including the bait technique shown above, to keep the opposition guessing.

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In the run-blocking department, Collins has been effective dating back to his rookie season. At 6-4, 320 pounds, Collins is so powerful that he can create some serious movement laterally and vertically off the line of scrimmage. Double teams featuring Collins and Zack Martin have been exceedingly effective since Collins made the switch to tackle a few years ago.

After being snubbed from a Pro Bowl berth and All-Pro nomination despite playing at that level, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Collins was also left out of the NFL Top 100.

Still, it takes more than one exceptional season for an offensive lineman to make it. After being snubbed from a Pro Bowl berth and All-Pro nomination despite outplaying some of the players who got those honors last season, Collins will have to prove that 2019 wasn’t a fluke before he gets the recognition he deserves.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB

Unlike his teammates mentioned above, Leighton Vander Esch didn’t play anywhere near the caliber of a top-100 player last season.

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After a stellar rookie year, a problematic neck turned Vander Esch into a lesser version of himself. Vander Esch couldn’t reliably tackle because of the neck injury, and because of that, he tried to play more urgently to compensate, compounding the issue and turning him into a shell of his former self.

And his former self was a stud. In 2018, Vander Esch was not only among the best rookies in his class, but he was one of the best linebackers in the entire league. He made it to the Pro Bowl and was voted a second-team All-Pro.

At 6-4, 255 pounds with 33 7/8-inch arms and a 4.65 40, Vander Esch is a freaky athlete. At the NFL combine, Vander Esch tested into at least the 80th percentile among linebackers in every metric except hand size, bench press and the 60-yard shuttle (three of the least important and predictive pre-draft metrics). In fact, Vander Esch tested into the 95th percentile or better in height, weight, wingspan, arm length and the vertical and broad jumps. There is not a linebacker in the league who can match the force that Vander Esch can create on impact.

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When you add in Vander Esch’s patience, football intelligence, pursuit angles, coverage ability and tackling technique, then it’s easy to see why he was so effective as a rookie and why the Cowboys’ defense struggled at times without him.

If Vander Esch is fully recovered from offseason neck surgery and can play at a level similar to his rookie season (which landed him at No. 74 in 2019), he’ll find his way back into the NFL Top 100 without a doubt.

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