The Mavericks return to action Friday night against the Houston Rockets inside the NBA’s bubble on the Disney World campus. Can Dallas, currently the seventh seed in the Western Conference, improve its playoff positioning in the eight seeding games to close the regular season? Can the Mavs go on a magical postseason run in the Magic Kingdom? Who is the favorite to win it all? SportsDay’s columnists Tim Cowlishaw and Kevin Sherrington, plus Mavs beat writers Brad Townsend and Callie Caplan, offer their predictions for the NBA’s long-awaited restart.
Who will the Mavericks play in the first round of the postseason, and how far do you see Dallas advancing?
Tim Cowlishaw: The Mavs go 5-3 and are able to climb past Oklahoma City to claim the No. 6 seed. They play Denver in the first round and win the series, 4-3. So they avoid the Clippers in the first round but can’t get away from them in the next. In a competitive series, Kawhi Leonard leads his team to a 4-2 series win over Dallas. The first playoffs for Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are largely viewed as a success and Dallas becomes a trendy pick to get to the Western Conference finals — wherever those games might be played — in 2021.
Kevin Sherrington: The Mavs will play the Clippers in the first round, and this is just about as bad of a matchup as they could get. The Clips’ strength is a deep and versatile roster, which is hardly the Mavs’ strong point now. Make it Los Angeles in five. The good news is, it was a pretty good season for Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Now it’s up to Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson to build something around them. They could use more rebounding and defense. Then we’ll see what the dynamic duo can do once they grow up a little.
Brad Townsend: I believe the Mavericks have a strong chance of catching Oklahoma City and, more likely, Houston, during the eight seeding games. Obviously their ability to do so will be greatly impacted by Friday’s opener against the Rockets. Remaining seventh in the Western Conference most likely would result in the Mavericks facing the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, a doomsday scenario regardless of how well Dallas plays. A sixth-, fifth- or fourth-place finish likely would earn the Mavericks a first-round matchup against Denver, Utah, Oklahoma City or Houston. I like the Mavericks’ chances of beating the Jazz, Thunder and Rockets — not so much against Denver, but certainly not impossible. My straight-up prediction is that the Mavericks will win their first playoff series since the 2011 NBA Finals and that their still-successful run will end with a competitive second-round series.
Callie Caplan: I predict the Mavericks will face the Clippers — either because Los Angeles holds onto the No. 2 seed and Dallas, currently No. 7, can’t catch up to Oklahoma City and Houston at Nos. 5 and 6, or because the Clippers drop below the Nuggets to No. 3 and the Mavericks close the gap with the ailing Rockets. The Clippers are built to win a title this year, while the Mavericks’ championship potential is likely a few years away, so Dallas will likely still be aiming for a first playoff series win since 2011 after this summer.
Beyond Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, which Mavs player will be the most important to the team’s success?
Tim Cowlishaw: Tim Hardaway Jr. continues to put some of his struggles in New York and Atlanta behind him as he shoots 38% from 3-point range in the playoffs, hits the series-winning shot against Denver and firmly establishes his place as more than just a salary dump throw-in in the Porzingis trade. Dorian Finney-Smith wins praise for his defense against Leonard and his solid all-around play throughout the playoffs.
Kevin Sherrington: Since the acquisition of Porzingis, the question has been, “Who’s the third wheel?” Tim Hardaway Jr. did a pretty good job of answering that question, at least for now, but he’ll have to take it to another level in the postseason. Not only that, he’ll have to answer defensively as well as offensively, given the Mavs’ poor defense overall. Rick Carlisle won’t have time to find another remedy on his bench, and there’s not enough there to piecemeal a solution, either.
Brad Townsend: I’ll cop out and give you two names: Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry. In any given game, the Mavericks need at least one of those players -- preferably for Dallas, both -- to be efficient from the perimeter and creative in driving to the basket. If both players go cold, it hinders the Mavericks’ spacing and limits Doncic’s pathways to the paint. Fortunately for Dallas, it’s extremely rare when at least one of those two players isn’t productive.
Callie Caplan: Seth Curry’s hot shooting throughout the three scrimmages in the last week is a sign that his dominant rhythm before the hiatus, and the team’s historic offensive efficiency throughout the season, haven’t disappeared. With the Mavericks likely to often use smaller lineups to mask their limited options in the frontcourt, Curry’s productivity, and good health, will be even more crucial to Dallas’ push for improved seeding and playoff success.
Which player, either injured or not with the team, will be missed the most?
Tim Cowlishaw: The absence of Dwight Powell leaves the Mavericks with some difficult physical matchups in both series but particularly against Denver’s size that costs the team a couple of games. The club gets more out of Boban Marjanovic than anyone might have guessed when this season began, and that helps, but Powell’s strength and solid play at both ends of the floor is missed.
Kevin Sherrington: Dwight Powell. Is there really another answer? No question, Porzingis has played better since Powell’s injury because he gets to play center, a position he likes on offense and defense. But he also tends to get in foul trouble. If Porzingis is forced to sit out long stretches, the Mavs are forced to give more time to Boban Marjanovic. Bobi can accommodate them in short stretches, but not much more than that.
Brad Townsend: The obvious answer is Powell, but since he’s been out for the season since January, the Mavericks have a full grasp of life without him. The player they’ll miss next-most here is Willie Cauley-Stein, especially if Porzingis gets into foul trouble, as happened in both the scrimmage games he played.
Callie Caplan: Similar to the reason Curry’s contributions will be magnified, Dwight Powell’s absence will be most notable. That’s been the case since he tore his right Achilles tendon Jan. 21, as coach Rick Carlisle has lauded Powell’s position on the team and on-court chemistry with Kristaps Porzingis. With Willie Cauley-Stein sitting out the restart, Porzingis, Boban Marjanovic and Maxi Kleber are the team’s main three options in the frontcourt. Powell won’t be available to add depth, but his insight as one of two current Mavericks to have played a postseason series for the franchise is one of the reasons he was eager to be with the team at Disney World.
What is your NBA Finals matchup, and who will prevail?
Tim Cowlishaw: The Lakers and Clippers stage the Western Conference finals that everyone has been waiting for, but the fact it’s played before virtual fans in Orlando plays into the hands of the Clippers, who would have been faced with pro-Laker crowds in all games at Staples Center. The Clippers win in seven while the Milwaukee Bucks knock off Boston in five to reach the Finals. While Giannis Antetokounmpo’s time is coming, Kawhi Leonard grabs his beloved title trophy one more time with a lot of help from Paul George as the Clippers win in six games.
Kevin Sherrington: Nothing like going with the chalk, which is the Lakers and Bucks and the two best players in the game. LeBron James was having a great season before it was shut down, and now he should be well-rested for the grind of the playoffs. The combination of Anthony Davis and LeBron is the best any opponent can muster to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo. They won’t stop him, but they’ll do enough to keep him from dominating. Lakers in seven.
Brad Townsend: Bucks against one of the LA teams, most likely the Clippers. I think the Lakers will sorely miss Avery Bradley’s defense and playmaking and to a lesser extent Rajon Rondo’s contributions in both of those areas. Milwaukee is the best defensive team in the NBA, one of the top three offensive teams in the NBA and has the best player in the NBA. Bucks win their first championship since Oscar Robertson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar led them to the 1971 title.
Callie Caplan: Lakers over Bucks. LeBron James having four extra months to rest and prepare, while perhaps gaining some extra motivation while the greater NBA world watched 10 hours of Michael Jordan highlights in The Last Dance, seems like a combination primed to net him a fourth title.
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