An ESPN straw poll of a hundred media voters projects Nikola Jokic, a point guard in a sumo suit, as the overwhelming MVP favorite with a month left in the regular season.
And what about Luka Doncic, the preseason betting favorite?
Ninth place, 941 points behind Jokic.
Five spots back of Damian Lillard.
Two questions: Is this some sort of payback for Lillard’s All-Star snub, and would voters like a do-over after Luka’s 3-point scoop at the buzzer in Memphis?
Because I think you’d get an argument from LeBron James, who uses an awful lot of exclamation points on Luka tweets these days.
Don’t get me wrong, Jokic is the game’s most artistic big man and deserves to be MVP, especially if he keeps Denver from cratering with Jamal Murray out. And I get how MVP voting works. The better your team, the better your odds. The Mavs stubbornly remain the seventh seed in the West after refusing to take advantage of Oklahoma City, Houston and San Antonio. It’s just that they were also the seventh seed last season, and Luka finished fourth in MVP voting then, joining Dirk Nowitzki as the only Mavs to finish in the top five.
Also, Portland is just a game ahead of Dallas in the West, yet Lillard has 283 points to Luka’s 28 in the straw poll.
Couldn’t be because Luka made the All-Star first team based on the fan vote, and Lillard didn’t, could it? Or maybe it’s just the national perception that Lillard has carried the Blazers while CJ McCollum has missed nearly half their games.
Dame deserves credit for keeping Portland upright, but McCollum has missed just six more games than Kristaps Porzingis, who’s in and out more than your 8-year-old. Luka’s done just as much heavy lifting as Lillard. The Mavs missed half their rotation during their COVID crisis, and Josh Richardson and Maxi Kleber really haven’t seemed themselves ever since.
And then there’s this: The Mavs are 1-4 without Luka. The Blazers sans Dame? 2-0.
The purpose here isn’t to make snarky remarks about Lillard apparently getting so much more respect than Luka does. Well, that’s part of the purpose. The real story is what the straw poll indicates about expectations, how the Mavs have failed to meet them and how much of that is Luka’s fault.
Let’s start with Luka. The numbers, both traditional and those you need a degree from MIT to interpret, are down nearly across the board. Not by much, and in some cases hardly at all. Even at that, much of it could be attributed to his slow start after a short offseason. He’s probably not going to lead the league in triple-doubles like he did last season.
The biggest difference in his favor: His 3-point percentage — far below average last season at 31.6% — is up to 36.4%, and that’s after going 2 for 21 in December.
Maybe MVP voters expect Luka, at 22, to show improvement in more areas than just from beyond the arc. Probably figured, if he’s really the MVP favorite, the Mavs ought to do better than another seventh seed.
Without question, the Mavs’ season has been a disappointment to date. Even if they can make legitimate excuses because of their unparalleled pandemic problems, it doesn’t change the fact that SportsDay’s panel of so-called experts unanimously predicted the Mavs to finish fourth in the West. We weren’t alone making claims that seem outlandish now. Luka didn’t get to be the MVP favorite because Vegas figured the Mavs would be a play-in candidate. The way it works when choosing MVP favorites, you pick the best teams, determine their best players and throw in LeBron.
You can pile up the Mavs’ mitigating factors: Besides COVID problems and the fact that Richardson, the off-season’s biggest addition, took a step backward this season, Dwight Powell and Trey Burke, the latter a revelation in the bubble, practically disappeared.
And then there’s the continuing question of what’s up with the chemistry between Luka and Porzingis.
On several occasions, notably the loss to Houston, Porzingis hasn’t gotten the ball in critical situations. Porzingis is keeping score, in case you were wondering. Rick Carlisle said he explained to the Unicorn after the Rockets game that because opponents put such good defenders on him, the Mavs look for guys guarded by easier marks. Which sounds reasonable, except that’s not how the NBA works. In crunch time, you put the ball in the hands of your best offensive players, and unless they are double- or triple-teamed, you want them taking crucial shots.
Now, it’s possible that Carlisle explained it in such a fashion to cover for the fact that Luka wasn’t looking for Porzingis when he should have been. No sense throwing your superstar under the bus.
Porzingis may be frustrating at times, but when he wants the ball, he’s the second option the Mavs have so desperately needed.
Frankly, I have to tell you, the fact that Luka and Porzingis have yet to smooth out the rough spots is my biggest whiff since the time I took three cuts on the first tee at Memorial Park in Houston. Luka and KP are both highly skilled players from team-first European backgrounds, and I figured they’d click immediately. What I didn’t consider was the possibility that Porzingis would miss so many games. That and the fact that they’re both alpha males.
Of course, there’s still time for the pair to get on the same page to fuel a run and maybe even clamber up out of seventh, then stick for a couple rounds in the playoffs. Luka and Porzingis were magnificent in the bubble. They can be that again. Then maybe Luka looks a little more like the MVP everyone figured.
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