Many expect the Mavericks will try to trade their No. 10 overall pick in next month’s NBA draft in hopes of acquiring veteran, win-now talent to upgrade the roster around Luka Doncic.
But should they?
Two ESPN draft experts say the rarity of landing a top-10 pick and the new team-building challenges set to take effect under the league’s new collective bargaining agreement add value to the Mavericks’ slot entering the June 22 draft.
Perhaps value Dallas shouldn’t give up.
“Especially if the intent is to bring back Kyrie [Irving],” ESPN front-office insider Bobby Marks said, “there’s a focus with the new rules as far as the draft is a major focus here because of the players that are on rookie contracts with the low salary cost here.
“When you have two players [in Doncic and Irving] who can be making close to $100 million, it’s harder to build your roster outside of your own players. I mean, that’s kind of the message that the league has sent as far as messages to kind of retain your own.”
The second luxury-tax apron makes that message most pronounced in the new CBA that starts this summer.
Under current rules, teams that surpass the salary cap threshold must pay an extra tax on all contracts above the limit. Top-spending contenders, such as the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers, have paid hundreds of millions in extra tax to maintain their superstar-laden rosters.
The NBA wants that to change.
Under the new CBA, a second apron line of $17.5 million over the luxury tax line will prompt additional restrictions on roster building maneuvers, such as the elimination of the taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency, prohibition from signing buyout players mid-season and blocks on taking back extra salary in trades.
The Mavericks played this last season nearly $23 million over the luxury tax threshold, so owner Mark Cuban had to pay an extra $56.2 million for a roster that failed to make the postseason after losing free-agent Jalen Brunson and making minor free-agency upgrades in Summer 2022.
If Dallas succeeds at retaining Irving this summer — what executives have multiple times declared their No. 1 priority — the Mavericks will not have flexibility beyond contract-swapping trades to revamp the rotation and, they hope, return to deep playoff-contending status.
Aside from draft-night trade acquisition Doncic, the Mavericks employ just two players — Jaden Hardy and Josh Green — they drafted themselves.
“The rules moving forward are just going to be harder to make a trade or maybe even re-sign a player that maybe you acquired in a trade that’s going to cost you 25, 30 million,” Marks said. “Where their roster is [outside of] Green and Hardy, the draft and Dallas aren’t kind of hand-in-hand as of late here. It is important to build that next layer of foundation players here with young talent.”
Good thing ESPN scouting expert Jonathan Givony views the Mavericks’ No. 10 slot as “right in that sweet spot” before all high-level prospects are off the board.
He highlighted Arkansas freshman guard Anthony Black and Central Florida freshman forward Taylor Hendricks as two lottery options who would enhance Dallas’ rotation.
Black, a Las Colinas native who played at Coppell and Duncanville, has shined as a play-maker in the pick-and-roll and as a stout on-ball defender — two areas the Mavericks lacked consistent production last season.
Dallas also lacks frontcourt depth with Dwight Powell and Christian Wood entering free agency with uncertain returns, and Hendricks could offer an instant upgrade in athleticism and interior defense while still helping to space the offense on the perimeter.
“I’m sure if there’s a great trade for them, a guy that’s available to help them win significantly more games next year, they’ll look at that” for the No. 10 pick, Givony said. “But history says that’s not really the case. I think you’re better off drafting because a top-10 pick doesn’t come around every year.
“Anthony Black, I think, would be a phenomenal fit on their roster just with the way he defends and how unselfish he is, does so many different things on the floor. I think that he’d be a great pairing with Luka Donicc and Kyrie Irving. “I think Taylor Hendricks is very interesting for them. They don’t have a lot of size there at that forward spot, so having a versatile player like Taylor Hendricks who can guard all over the floor, can make an open three, plays with great energy — I think they’re missing that right now.
“There is players for them if they want to stay in this draft, [if] they want to keep that pick. There is a guy there that could help them as soon as next year.”
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