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Last MVP candidate still standing this postseason? Mavericks’ Luka Doncic vs. Minnesota

Minnesota has all the buzz after knocking off the defending champs. But don’t count out Dallas just yet.

There is no shortage of love being directed towards the Minnesota Timberwolves today. Given that they just knocked off the defending NBA champions in a Game 7 at Denver and that they won three times in the Mile High City, it’s understandable.

On TNT late Sunday night, former Maverick Vince Carter picked Minnesota to beat Dallas in the conference finals. Charles Barkley, riding high after picking a T-Wolves upset in Game 7, stayed with Minnesota for this round, too. Kenny Smith at least equivocated, saying that Minnesota will be favored (he is correct) but that he reserved the right to change his mind before Wednesday night.

A defensive-minded team with the rebounding power that Minnesota possesses will surely be a sizable challenge for the Mavericks. But Dallas has a few cards to play that just might matter in the determination of the outcome as well.

The NBA remains a superstar’s league, and the last I checked, the only top-five finisher in the league’s Most Valuable Player award chase is Luka Doncic. Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Oklahoma City’s Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, who finished first and second, just got eliminated by the T-Wolves and Mavs, respectively. Two-time winner Giannis Antetokounmpo never got on the court during Milwaukee’s first-round loss to Indiana. And former Mav Jalen Brunson finally wore down, even broke his hand, in in Sunday’s Game 7 loss to the Pacers.

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Now maybe we are splitting hairs here to point out that third-place finisher Doncic is still standing. Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, capable of occasional brilliance on his own, finished seventh. But Doncic is the only player to receive first-place votes who is still alive in the postseason, and I honestly think this round will be easier for him, even if the games are going to be difficult to win.

Minnesota’s best defensive players are the ones with size. Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid aren’t going to cause any difficulties for Doncic or Kyrie Irving. We can expect P.J. Washington to have a lot more trouble scoring in the high 20s this round if Jalen McDaniels is guarding him. If Minnesota puts the bigger McDaniels on Luka, that will be a heck of a battle, but he’s going to have trouble defending out past the 3-point line.

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Regardless, Oklahoma City was almost built to handle Luka and Kyrie with its depth at guard, and it’s what the Thunder did best. Irving averaged just 15.7 points per game and was held below 10 twice. Luka averaged 24.7 points, far below his league-leading 33.9 of the regular season.

After barely scoring 40 per game in the second round, expect Luka and Kyrie to get back over 50 in this one. I don’t pretend that that will solve all of Dallas’ issues with Minnesota. In Game 7, Jokic and Jamal Murray scored 69 points but the rest of the Nuggets managed only 21 in defeat. Dallas is deeper than Denver, and what Dereck Lively II is able to do against Minnesota’s bigs will be intriguing to watch. Surely he won’t have the freedom to attack the offensive glass that he had against the undersized Thunder, but the penetration of Luka and Kyrie frees up Lively and Daniel Gafford for the explosive dunks that tend to ignite the AAC crowds as much as the long ball does.

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If Luka’s standing in the MVP race doesn’t prove the difference in the conference finals, maybe it will be championship experience. Across the four teams remaining, that experience is almost missing entirely. Only two regular starters have won rings — Boston’s Jrue Holiday with the Bucks three years ago and Irving with Cleveland back in 2016. Along those lines, Jason Kidd coached a very different Dallas team to the conference finals just two years ago. This is the first trip for Chris Finch with the Wolves, who have not been in 20 years.

Getting to that first NBA Finals is hard. It took the Mavericks a quarter of a century before they finally made it in 2006, eventually winning it all in 2011. Minnesota, which has never reached the Finals in 34 seasons, has removed many of its doubters and won some advocates with its play against Denver. That doesn’t mean the Mavericks, with their two elite scorers outside, don’t pose a more credible challenge.

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