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Who could Texas Rangers play first in the MLB playoffs? Here’s a breakdown

The Rangers can still clinch the AL West title on Sunday.

The Texas Rangers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Now that the hard part is out of the way: who could the Rangers play once the postseason begins?

A brief reminder on the MLB playoff format: if the Rangers win the AL West on Sunday, they’d be the No. 2 seed in the postseason and play the winner of the No. 3/6 Wild Card matchup in the divisional series. As of Saturday, that’d be either the Minnesota Twins or the Houston Astros/Toronto Blue Jays. If the Astros and Blue Jays finish the regular season with the same record, Toronto would the No. 5 seed and Houston would be the No. 6 seed by way of tiebreakers.

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If the Rangers don’t win their division, they’d be the No. 5 seed; they cannot catch Tampa Bay for the No. 4 seed, and they hold the tiebreaker over the sixth-seeded Toronto Blue Jays. In that scenario, the Rangers would play the Rays in the Wild Card series.

For now, here’s a look at the Rangers’ possible first-round playoff opponents, either in the ALDS or in the Wild Card series.

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Houston Astros

Rangers record against this season: 4-8

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The important number: .669. That’s the Astros’ winning percentage (79-39) against the Rangers since the start of the 2017 season. Effectively: Houston plays like a 108-win team against Texas. If the Rangers square up with the Astros at any stage of the postseason, they’d need to overcome some demons — and a team that’s won two World Series titles in the last six seasons — to advance.

The difference maker: Chas McCormick. In a lineup that includes Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, McCormick did as much damage as any against the Rangers. He slashed .438/.500/.938 with 15 RBIs in 10 games against Texas this season.

How the Rangers win: Attack the starters. Houston’s starting rotation has a 4.24 ERA this season, the 17th-best in MLB. Their bullpen? 3.61, the sixth-best. In Texas’ four wins against Houston this season, it was Astros starters who took the loss in each. In Houston’s eight wins, a relief pitcher recorded the win in five of them. The best way to advance past the reigning World Series champions: don’t wait around to make a move, because the opportunity to do so may not be there late.

Minnesota Twins

Rangers record against this season: 2-5

The important number: 6.03. That’s the Rangers’ team ERA against the Twins this season. For reference, the Rockies have the worst team ERA in MLB this season at 5.66. Texas starting pitchers posted a 5.35 ERA against Minnesota and yielded a WHIP of 1.50; the bullpen had an ERA of 6.82, and the Twins slugged .530 off of Rangers relievers. The Rangers allowed seven or more runs in four of the seven games the two teams played against each other.

The difference maker: Royce Lewis. This much we know of Lewis: he thrives in clutch moments. Of his first 16 career home runs, five were grand slams, a MLB record. He hit four in an 18-game span — including one against the Rangers on Aug. 24 — and drilled another three-run shot against Texas on Sep. 3. A Grade 1 hamstring strain has kept Lewis off the field since Sep. 19, and his postseason availability is still to be determined. If he is healthy in time for the playoffs, he’s a game-breaking threat.

How the Rangers win: Capitalize on scoring opportunities. Texas certainly didn’t do much of that against Minnesota in the regular season. The Rangers hit just .134 (9 for 67) with runners in scoring position in their seven second-half games against the Twins this season; three of their five losses to Minnesota were decided by two runs or less. You do the math.

Toronto Blue Jays

Rangers record against this season: 6-1

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The important number: .533. That’s Corey Seager’s batting average in seven games against the Blue Jays this season. The All-Star shortstop posted a team-best 1.542 OPS against Toronto this season with nine extra base hits in 30 at bats. When Seager goes, the Texas offense tends to follow.

The difference maker: Bo Bichette. Here’s why: he’s hit .307 with 20 home runs this season, but against the Rangers, slashed .185/.241/.333 with two runs scored and two driven in. The back-to-back AL hits leader in 2021 and 2022, Bichette can spark Toronto’s offense; he hasn’t yet this season against the Rangers, and the Blue Jays have struggled in part because of that.

How the Rangers win: Ditto to the Astros note; handle business early. The Blue Jay’s starting rotation has yielded an AL-best 3.80 ERA this season; their bullpen, with a 3.76 ERA, is a top-10 group in baseball, too. The Rangers didn’t need to stress much about the latter in their four-game September sweep, as Toronto starters took the loss in each game. It’s a pick-your-poison type of situation with Toronto’s pitchers; if you’re going to pick one, let it be the one that puts less onus on Texas’ shaky bullpen to keep things afloat.

Tampa Bay Rays

Rangers record against this season: 4-2

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The important number: 2.00. That was the Rangers’ team ERA in their three-game sweep of Tampa Bay in July. Two of the three games were won by bullpen arms — Aroldis Chapman and Brock Burke — and the other by All-Star Nathan Eovaldi.

The difference maker: Tyler Glasnow. In his one start vs. the Rangers this season, Glasnow pitched six one-hit innings in an 8-3 Tampa Bay win in June. The way in which he manages his two most used pitches — fastball and slider — will be key in a potential playoff start. Glasnow throws his fastball 43.6% of the time and his slider 34.8% of the time; Texas has shown struggles against high heat in the last month-and-a-half, but have posted an MLB-best 36.4 runs above average against sliders this season.

How the Rangers win: Hope the bullpen does what it did against the Rays all season. The Rangers’ relievers posted a 3.60 ERA in their six games against Tampa Bay this season; for reference, that mark would be tied with Baltimore for the fifth-best bullpen ERA in baseball this season. Point being: Texas relievers, believe it or not, pitched like a top-five group against the Rays this season.

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On Twitter/X: @McFarland_Shawn

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