Advertisement
This is member-exclusive content
icon/ui/info filled

sportsRangers

5 offseason questions for Rangers as they look to maintain World Series contender status

Fresh off winning the franchise’s first World Series, the Rangers shift to what will be a busy offseason.

ARLINGTON — On Friday afternoon, they cranked up Creed one last time. The general manager urged a crowd, at times a half-million strong, to chant “Let’s go Rangers.” The World Series’ most valuable player mic-dropped on the team’s most bitter and beaten rival. And then a final champagne spray soaked into the pave stones of the plaza in front of Globe Life Field, matting the celebratory confetti as it floated back down to earth.

It was a wonderful day, more than 50 years in the making, for Arlington and its adopted team.

And then: back to work.

No sooner had the confetti been swept up than the Rangers were back to work — at least the front office is — on figuring out a way to make sure the Miracle Rangers of 2023 are not a one-and-done contender. These are the new compressed logistics of winning a World Series. Work on the next season almost has to start before the celebration is over.

Rangers

Be the smartest Rangers fan. Get the latest news.

Or with:

Yes, free agency is already upon us. There are player options to be determined and club options to be rendered. There is a mother of all free agents on the horizon, a lingering weakness of the 2023 team to be addressed, the future of the organization assessed and the cost of doing business. Most teams have already started to form these plans. The Rangers have been a little, um, preoccupied.

It began Saturday with two quick decisions around players with options. Starter-turned-postseason reliever Andrew Heaney exercised his option for 2024 and the Rangers picked up the 2024 option on reliever José Leclerc.

Advertisement

Heaney, who earned $12 million in base pay and another $3.5 million in performance bonuses, fell five outs shy of 150 innings, which would have pushed the player option for 2024 to $20 million. Instead, he will make $13 million. Leclerc will receive $6.25 million in base pay for 2024.

Those were the easiest calls. Once general manager Chris Young gets to the GM meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., on Tuesday, an offseason strategy must be firmly in place. Consider that two years ago, the last time the meetings were in Scottsdale, the Rangers had already put into motion the plan of pursuing not either Corey Seager or Marcus Semien, but both of them.

Advertisement

Here are things the Rangers must consider as the offseason begins:

Are they willing to pay the CBT payroll tax a second year?

For the first time ever, the Rangers will pay the luxury tax for the 2023 roster. The threshold for the tax was $233 million this season. According to Baseball Prospectus’ database, the Rangers’ payroll for Competitive Balance Tax, or CBT, purposes finished at $242 million. They will pay a 20% tax on the overage, about $1.8 million in fees.

A drop in the bucket, all things considered for a world champion. For 2024, the threshold jumps to $237 million. But, if the Rangers eclipse that, they’d be a second-time payer, meaning their tax rate would also rise. It would be 30% if they exceed the threshold by less than $20 million, 42% if they exceed it by between $20 million to $40 million, 75% for exceeding it by $40 million to $60 million, and 90% for anything above $60 million.

With the Rangers’ moves Saturday, they have roughly $175 million already committed for 2024 for eight players, according to Baseball Propsectus. The CBT uses the 40-man payroll compensation plus benefits. That accounted for almost $50 million on top of the 26-man opening day payroll. Do the math and you are looking at a team at about $225 million already committed with potentially eight arbitration cases pending and perhaps some long-term extensions to consider. Then again, the power of 500,000 people showing up in Arlington for a championship parade and what they might be willing to spend for tickets and merch in the future is a powerful temptation.

Is Shohei Ohtani an option?

Shohei Ohtani is the biggest free agent on the market, even if he will only be a designated hitter in 2024. The Rangers were on his short list the first time around, when he came to Major League Baseball after 2017. According to a New York Post report, the Rangers are on the top of his list of preferred destinations for 2024, which is part of the spoils of winning the World Series. Great players, especially those who have never won, want to play for you.

Is it realistic?

Advertisement

Before reports of his elbow injury surfaced, the guess was Ohtani would get $50 million or more per year for at least a decade. The elbow injury makes it possible he might take lower dollars up front. By “lower” we mean in the $25 million to $30 million range for a year or two before making that up in the middle of the contract. Either way, if the Rangers add him, they are going to have to be willing to pay a big chunk in luxury tax in 2024 and more going forward.

To add Ohtani and finish out the roster probably would carry the Rangers into the $275 million to $300 million range in CBT payroll. If they go that high, you are looking at a total bill for the team in the $300 million to $325 million range.

It’s a hard question to answer, especially since there remains uncertainty about the long-term viability of the parent company of Bally Sports Southwest and whether it will meet its obligations for the broadcast rights fees.

Do they pursue re-signing Jordan Montgomery?

No player on the 2023 team did more to increase his long-term value than Jordan Montgomery, who was acquired as a deadline rental. Montgomery, who went 7-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 98 innings after being acquired, made $10 million in 2023. That’s likely to more than double for 2024 and beyond.

Advertisement

With Max Scherzer (even with the Mets paying a hefty chunk of his salary), rehabbing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Heaney, the Rangers already have more than $100 million committed to the rotation.

It’s true what Young says, “you can never have enough starting pitching,” but the Rangers may have other higher priorities to address. Namely the bullpen and DH.

Do they pursue a closer?

Conventional wisdom suggests that worst use of long-term free agent dollars is for a closer. The Rangers have done this twice in the last 30 years — for John Wetteland and Joe Nathan. Neither ever even had a postseason save opportunity for the club. So consider that a disclosure warning.

Advertisement

The best closer on the free agent market is Josh Hader, who converted 33 of 38 saves in 2023 and made $14.1 million. The market, though, is more likely what the New York Mets paid for Edwin Diaz ahead of 2023: $108 million over five years, an average of $21.6 million per season. Then Diaz didn’t pitch due to a knee injury. Actually, Diaz might be the better value. He is expected to be healthy for 2024 and the rebuilding Mets aren’t likely to contend. Would they be willing to eat a chunk of Diaz’s salary to acquire young talent? Before you say it’s preposterous, consider what they did with both Scherzer and Justin Verlander this past summer.

Do they try to get an extension done with a young player?

With all these dollars being thrown around, might it make sense to get some cost certainty on some of their young players with a club-friendly extension?

The Rangers have nine potential salary arbitration cases: Adolis García, Jonah Heim, Dane Dunning, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Sborz, Brock Burke, Jonathan Hernández, Brett Martin and Leody Taveras. The first two on that list, both All-Stars in 2023, might be worth considering for extensions. García turns 31 in March and might want to get some long-term security for his family because he might pass his window for maximizing his value before he gets to free agency. The same could be said of Heim. Catchers are one home plate collision away from a drastic change in effectiveness.

Advertisement

And beyond that, there are the first-year stars, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter. Is there an opportunity to lock them up at more club-friendly prices now?

It’s a lot to consider.

It costs a lot to win a World Series. It may cost even more to pursue a second.

Related Stories
View More
Advertisement

Find more Rangers coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.

Click or tap here to sign up for our Rangers newsletter.