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Evan Help Us: Chris Young extension, pending free agency and Texas Rangers silver linings

Rangers insider Evan Grant offers up a few reasons to still be excited about the remainder of the Rangers’ 2024 season.

It’s been a month since we’ve chatted. Sorry. A lot was going on. Let’s see what’s happened here on our front: Covered the All-Star Game and all the hoopla that now goes along with it, a Hall of Fame ceremony for my mentor (Gerry Fraley) and for Adrián Beltré at the end of that week, squeezed in a brief bout of COVID, got one kid married, went through a somewhat confusing trade deadline, moved the other kid and went to the White House.

And in that same time, the Rangers went from likely sellers to cautious buyers and then on into what appears to be a collapse of any chance to repeat as world champs. Since the All-Star break, the Rangers have won exactly one series (that vs. the dreadful Chicago White Sox) and seen themselves plummet to a point where a top-five draft pick is far more likely than a playoff berth.

So, let’s catch our breath and handle a bunch of the issues that have arisen and that are on your minds. There is probably more to get into and in more detail and you can bet that over the next few weeks, we will. For now, though, here are your most pressing questions and my attempt to make sense of what has happened in 2024 and how it impacts 2025 and beyond.

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ME: It’s a great question, because the real possibility is that the Rangers won’t have anything to play for except for the old trite and true: pride.

Does trying to get to a winning record matter? Is there any value in that? A) Probably not. B) Even that would take a huge lift. They’d essentially have to play .667 baseball over the last quarter of the season just to get to 82 wins. They haven’t played better than .550 baseball (22-18) for any stretch of 40 games this season. So, make of that what you wish. Here are three things I’d be “excited” to see from a fan perspective whether you classify yourself as casual or hardcore:

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Jacob deGrom’s return: deGrom could begin a rehab assignment next week, which would likely put him in play for the final 10 days or two weeks of the regular season. Maybe two starts. Maybe three. Maybe just one. It’s not going to have an impact on a playoff race, but I do think that getting back on a mound in a game would represent being able to put the rehab portion officially behind him. It would give him a sense of accomplishment heading into the offseason. Maybe something like facing Seattle in the final home series of the year and then the Angels in the final series of the year. It would put this long ordeal behind him and give both him and the Rangers a sense of moving from rehab to simply preparing to pitch.

Jack Leiter’s runway: The Rangers need some starting pitching for 2025 and they need to develop some of their own. There has been progress for several pitchers in the minors this year, notably the return of Kumar Rocker, Emiliano Teodo, Winston Santos and Alejandro Rosario. But Leiter is the flagship for pitching development. His three starts early in the year were more out of emergency than anything else. He’s had the last three months to process what he learned from that and show it off over a stretch. It doesn’t matter if it’s as a multi-inning reliever with regularly scheduled outings or as a starter. It’s important for his development and the Rangers’ vision.

Wyatt Langford’s progress: Hindsight is a hell of a thing. It can tell us now that maybe putting Wyatt Langford on the opening-day roster was probably too aggressive a placement, and it wasn’t helped by the injuries all around him that forced him into higher-pressure spots in the order.

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OK, that’s in the past. It’s all about moving forward. Langford has been going through the late-season doldrums many rookies experience in August. Might even make sense to give him a few days off now, let him get mentally and physically refreshed and then let him rip in September. Kind of a reset. Though you might say that his ninth-inning game-tying homer on Wednesday was a really good-sign. The first five months of the season have been, in hindsight, about learning through a lot of failure. Now, he needs to put that to use for results in September to give him some positive reinforcement for the winter.

ME: It is troubling that is still an issue. Young probably should have gotten a new contract when he moved into Jon Daniels’ chair in August of 2022. He definitely should have gotten an extension after the Rangers won the World Series last year. But it’s not how owner Ray Davis seems to conduct business. He negotiates at a deliberate pace. I think that only ends up costing him more money in the long run. The market for GMs has risen to about $5 million per year in the last two years. Ultimately, I think Davis still gets there, and I believe Young still wants to stay. I put the chances of Young remaining at greater than 50%, but it slips a little bit more each day as more clubs get closer to making decisions about their own GMs and word spreads of potential openings.

If the Rangers don’t get a deal done with Young, it is really going to raise eyebrows around the industry. A homegrown GM, who played for the team, who chose to live in Dallas over New York when working for the Commissioner’s office and who already has a World Series title to his resumé? If you lose that guy, what exactly is it that you are seeking in the position? It would create a lot of troubling questions about the franchise’s vision for the future and put Davis in a spot where he does not like to be: front and center as the voice, albeit temporary, of the organization.

ME: I don’t. He doesn’t need to be protected on the 40-man roster until December of 2025, so there is no roster-based incentive. The only reason to pitch him in the majors would be if you thought he could help you win a World Series, probably in a relief role. That appears to now be a moot point.

In addition, Rocker, coming back from elbow surgery, is on a pretty restrictive innings list. The Rangers probably want him to work less than 50 innings this year. He was at 28 going into Wednesday’s start for Frisco. I think he will work regular starts until he gets to whatever the innings limit is, shut it down and go into the offseason with a lot of positive energy. All that said, I also don’t expect Rocker to open the 2025 season on the opening day roster. That would either be a product of not adding pitching in the offseason or relying way too much on spring training performance as pertinent or some combination of both. In a best-case scenario, I’d see Rocker breaking into the bigs around Memorial Day of 2025.

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ME: That the Rangers could have a rotation fronted by a historically great and finally healthy starter. That Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford and Josh Jung could form a potent trio of young, core hitters. That Kumar Rocker could be on the verge of finally giving the Rangers’ pitching development program a major leaguer to be proud of. That the team, one year removed from a World Series win, might draft in the top five. And that, hey, Corey Seager is still one of the best half-dozen players in the league. For starters.

There are a lot of potential silver linings. There are plenty of potential storm fronts to weather, yes. But this is not an organization bereft of talent or potential.

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ME: I asked the Google Machine and was told fatty fish was good for potentially lowering stress. Fatty fish seems to be the answer to every question about health, anyway. So, eat more salmon and tuna. Personally, we cook a lot of salmon at home. We like the sustainably farmed salmon of Wester Ross and Verlasso brands, which are a bit less expensive than the wild-caught. I will either pan-sear it or stick it in the oven for about 18 minutes at 400. Plenty of simple easy ways to add some flavor. We have been using a lot of this Peruvian Ahi Verde (green sauce), this lemon dill sauce or some Harissa paste with honey. And if all else fails: Brisket.

As always, all the disclaimers apply. I am not a licensed physician or dietician. Please eat (and drink) responsibly.

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ME: I think the Rangers would consider offers for García. There might be a taker, too. But if you explore this possibility, you explore it mostly with the idea that the priority would be to move García’s $9.25 million salary for next year and use the savings elsewhere. You would not get a return commensurate with that of a guy who won the ALCS MVP in 2023 or the guy who had consecutive 30-homer/100-RBI seasons. You would be moving him because you think his skills, especially his ability to hit a fastball, have fallen off a cliff and that whatever money you’d save would be better applied elsewhere.

If the Rangers had wanted to get the most value for him, they should have explored trading him last winter. That would have brought real value. But it also would have meant trading the most popular player from a World Series winner. It would have been a hard pill for a lot of fans to swallow.

ME: Your questions are so good, let’s answer two. I don’t know if “on the verge” is the best terminology here. They are still shopping for the best possible TV situation. There is still uncertainty if Bally Sports, or however Diamond Sports would try to brand it, would even exist. If it doesn’t, using MLB’s production and distribution abilities would always be an option, though not the most lucrative. If the Rangers want to get the best return, the best possibility is to form their own RSN/Streaming option. But there are significant startup costs associated with that and it would require carriage deals with cable providers. Short-term, it probably wouldn’t create the revenue they’ve had in recent years, but in the long-term, it would be getting ahead of the situation.

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It might also have an ancillary effect. If, in the short-term, the Rangers don’t think they will recoup all the revenue, then they should prioritize getting games in front of fans. That’s part of the “vision,” I keep talking about this week. It’s three hours of advertising and promotion every night. I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve been out to restaurants on my off nights this year and strolled through to see the Rangers not on TV. If you can’t be seen, probably you won’t be talked about. And if you aren’t talked about, it’s hard to get people interested in coming to games.

ME: I think whatever meaningful games Scherzer pitches for the Rangers are in the past. If he does come back this year, it will likely be after any semblance of trying to win has been abandoned. And he’s a 40-year-old free agent. The Rangers will prioritize durability or upside with any free-agent dollars they spend. Scherzer is a Hall of Famer. But it’s hard to see durability or upside being part of his resumé for 2025. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed seeing the competitor Scherzer is, but it just appears that he has reached the end of the line.

As for deGrom, I know he turns 36 next year. But he’s a physical freak with very little mileage on his arm the last few years. All reports are that he’s pitching in the high 90s as he prepares for a rehab assignment. I don’t doubt that deGrom has the ability to spin a couple more special years.

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ME: By “front office,” you mean “ownership,” correct? For the baseball operations folks, it’s never a question of willingness, but rather available funds. They’ve had a lot in that regard the last two years, but I do not think Ray Davis will pay the CBT tax for a third straight year. As a third-time payor, it would mean a 50% tax on every dollar over $241 million in CBT payroll costs. And if you get below the CBT for a year, then your status resets. If the Rangers, for example, get below the threshold for 2025, they return to first-time payor status if they go over the threshold in 2026. That drops the tax bracket from 50% for overage to 20%.

So, my guess is the top tier is going to be somewhere around $235 million (which includes benefits) to afford them some in-season flexibility. The Rangers have about $150 million in salary and benefits commitments to six veterans and their pre-arbitration players. There are going to be some key arbitration decisions to make, which could impact how much money there is to spend, but, my guess is if the Rangers want to stay within $230-235 million range, they will have the ability to add about $50-55 million in payroll and will need to add, at the minimum: A starting pitcher (or two), two bullpen arms and at least one bat. And, well, $50 million doesn’t go as far these days as it used to.

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ME: Don’t have specific numbers for all teams, but, let’s face it, the Rangers knew going in they were going to have guys miss significant time due to injuries with deGrom and Mahle (elbow surgery recovery) and Scherzer (back surgery) all out for most of the first half. That said, through Wednesday, the group of DeGrom (121), Mahle (113), Cody Bradford (94), Scherzer (89), Jon Gray (26), Nathan Eovaldi (22) and Michael Lorenzen (16) missed a composite total of 389 games due to IL placements. If you simply divided that by five to account for a five-man rotation, that’s essentially going without a rotation (and a pretty good one at that) for 78 games. So, whether it ranks first or not, the time missed has been substantial.

ME: I’ve been fortunate to have attended two Hall of Fame induction weekends in the last seven years, including Ivan Rodríguez in 2017 and Beltré this year. All I can say about Hall of Fame weekend is this: I believe it is physically impossible for the baseball fan to go to Cooperstown and not be happy. Which is saying a lot, considering it can be crowded and hot. But the environment is so homey, so full of appreciation and history, that it just way outweighs any inconveniences. It is a special, special weekend. Wish I could come up with a better way to describe it. But, literally, every person there is just perpetually happy all weekend. It’s awesome.

For Adrián to mention me (and Emily Jones) in addition to the media in general, was a really nice moment. It’s always a nice feeling to think that you covered a player fairly and that he appreciated it. I’ve been very fortunate in that regard. I had several reporters come up to me and mention how nice it must have felt to get that little shoutout. I was beaming inside. Now, I’m embarrassed for talking about myself so much. What I can add is this: One thing Beltré was worried about throughout the writing of his speech was that he wouldn’t get to thank all of the people he wanted to. I thought he did a great job during his speech of recognizing people who touched his career along the way, weaving in the story of his career, his sense of humor and joy and his sense of pride in his Dominican heritage. It was a wonderful afternoon all the way around.

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Former Texas Rangers third baseman Adrián Beltré pictured with Dallas Morning News Rangers...
Former Texas Rangers third baseman Adrián Beltré pictured with Dallas Morning News Rangers insider Evan Grant during the Rangers reception honoring Beltré’s induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame at The Farmer’s Museum, Saturday, July 20, 2024 in Cooperstown, NY.(Elías Valverde II / Staff Photographer)

Twitter/X: @Evan_P_Grant

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