SEATTLE — Texas Rangers GM Chris Young said Thursday was the start of a “fun weekend” for the organization.
It grows more intriguing by the moment.
Young, on hand to watch Kumar Rocker’s major league debut Thursday at T-Mobile Park, won’t make it to Jacob deGrom’s return from elbow surgery on Friday. He will be flying across the International Date Line to scout the next coming Japanese pitching phenom: 22-year-old right-hander Rōki Sasaki. Sasaki, who will start Sunday for Chiba Lotte, has a 2.02 ERA in 392 2/3 innings over five professional seasons.
Now, for the next question: Will Sasaki even attempt to come to MLB for 2025? Since he’s under the age of 25, he’d have to go through the International Free Agency rules, which cap his signing bonus to whatever a signing club has available in its international pool. The Rangers entered the year with $6.261 million available. It is in the middle tier of bonus pools, which range from $5.146 million to $7.55 million. That money is usually used to sign teenage talent out of Latin America.
If Sasaki waits until the age of 25, however, he can sign via true free agency and reap a much bigger financial windfall (as could his Japanese club, which would receive a cut of the contract he signs as a posting fee). When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto this past offseason, he received a $325 million contract as a true free agent.
There has been a significant amount of mystery about Sasaki’s future as the season has developed. Though he has continued to dominate Japanese hitters, there have been marked declines in his strikeout-to-walk rate, which currently sits at 3.39, down from his previous career line of 6.69. In a recent article examining his season and situation, Fangraphs noted his average fastball velocity has fallen more than 2 mph to 96.7 mph this season and his miss rate on the pitch has been halved from 24% to 12%. Sasaki missed two months this season with an undisclosed arm injury.
Still, Sasaki is considered the next big thing to come out of Japan. His age makes him an attractive option to team up with the group of young pitchers the Rangers have matriculating up into the rotation from Rocker to Jack Leiter to Cody Bradford and down to Alejandro Rosario, Emiliano Teodo and Winston Santos in the minors.
“The potential of a fully operational Sasaki is astronomical — at peak, he is in Paul Skenes territory, better in terms of pure stuff but not in terms of command,” Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote. “Even if there are some initial struggles or he suffers a severe injury early during his MLB tenure and requires surgery, at some point while Sasaki is in the majors he will probably be one of the nastiest handful of pitchers in the league. His 2024 struggles and injury history are notable, but none of this recent dip will impact the money Sasaki gets from an MLB team this offseason (if indeed he chooses to come over).”
There is another obstacle to landing Sasaki: The Dodgers. Having scooped up Shohei Ohtani in free agency this past winter and adding Yamamoto, the Dodgers have invested heavily in Japanese pitchers, have the money to continue to do so (thanks in part to Ohtani’s club favorable deal and huge marketing partnerships in Japan) and are rumored to be Sasaki’s first choice.
The Rangers, however, remain a formidable force in Japan. They did, after all, surprise baseball by landing Yu Darvish more than a decade ago and assistant GM Josh Boyd has spent more than a decade forming strong relationships within Nippon Professional Baseball and the Japanese baseball industry as a whole.
It just makes for a little more intrigue.
Find more Rangers coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
