When the cataclysmic World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees ends, no later than Nov. 2, baseball’s free agency bonanza begins. If last year is any indication, it will last right through spring training. Since the Rangers don’t have to worry any longer about defending their World Series title, they can at least begin the process of sorting through their wants and needs.
With payroll expected to fall from $260 million to below the competitive balance tax threshold of $241 million, they may have to focus on needs more than wants. But with that said, let’s continue looking at potential fits.
Today: The infield.
Overview: Save for improved health, there really shouldn’t be much to do on the infield. It should be status quo. But, given the potential payroll pinch, the Rangers face a difficult decision on Nathaniel Lowe.
He’s going into his third season of arbitration and will see his salary rise from $7.5 million to above $10 million. Perhaps, given glaring needs in the rotation and bullpen, the bulk of that money could be used to more significantly improve pitching. Maybe the Rangers could deal Lowe to help address one of their needs, essentially reallocating money from the infield to the pitching staff.
Lowe’s production should not be overlooked. There are few upgrades available on the free agent market and those upgrades would come at a significantly high cost. Lowe’s .769 OPS at first base ranked 10th among the 20 players with at least 350 plate appearances at the position. The only free agents who ranked ahead of him, Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, would cost significantly more.
This is the Rangers’ predicament: They have a good first base option, but the resources might be more needed elsewhere. Here’s a look at what’s available.
The big fish: Pete Alonso, who will play at age 30 next year, is second to Aaron Judge in home runs hit since his debut in 2019. Even though he posted a career-low .788 OPS in 2024, he’s going to get a big rise off his $20.5 million salary in free agency. The Polar Bear has star power, but there is no way for the Rangers to carry a third $25 million infielder to go with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.
Arizona’s Christian Walker, 34, is in line to win his third consecutive Gold Glove to go with his third straight season with at least 25 homers. It’s a nice combo that helps on both sides of the ball. But Walker is going to probably double his $10.9 million salary. The Rangers simply can’t afford to look at this level. Either they stick with what they have, which isn’t a bad option, or they go cheaper.
The middle tier: Eugenio Suarez would be an intriguing possibility who could also offer the Rangers some protection at third base in case Josh Jung suffers another injury. He’s hit 30 or more homers five times, but the tradeoff is a high strikeout rate (27.5% for his career). And, he’s likely going to cost more than $10 million also, coming off an annual salary of $9.4 million.
It’s the same situation: Even the middle of the market is going to cost more than Lowe, so if the Rangers are going to change it up here, they are going to have to set expectations lower.
Mark Canha, who will be 36 next season, had one of the slowest average bat speeds in the majors during a disappointing 2024, but he walks a lot. Maybe as a supplemental candidate who could fill in at a corner outfield spot, DH more regularly and spot start at first base, Canha might make some sense. As an everyday first baseman? He’s never started even 60 games at the position in a season.
Veteran presences: Carlos Santana, 39, and Justin Turner, about to turn 40, are still plugging along and are likely to fetch less than wherever Lowe’s arbitration figure falls. Both are considered strong clubhouse presences, which is an area the Rangers could use some reinforcement. The downside is that you wouldn’t expect either to play 150 games in the field as Lowe has done regularly. Turner started only 40 games at first base in 2024.
Bargain hunting: Not sure a player as decorated as former MVP Paul Goldschmidt would ever be considered a bargain, but after two consecutive years of a 100-point drop in OPS from the previous season, he’s going to get a fraction of the $26 million he made annually on his last contract. Goldschmidt, 37, had a career-worst 26.5% strikeout rate and struggled against the fastball like never before. But his bat speed was still above average and his hard-hit rate in the 92nd percentile. In theory, a team might be able to get much more bang for the buck with him, based on previous track record, but the risk is a steep dropoff as he gets later into his 30s.
Others on the bottom tier might have some value as utility men, but not as everyday first basemen. Switch-hitting Abraham Toro, 27, has some versatility and could come on a minor league deal, but the Rangers already have somebody similar in Ezequiel Duran (albeit he’s only a right-handed hitter). And, no, a reunion with Joey Gallo, who will be free and inexpensive, isn’t happening.
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