When the cataclysmic World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees ends, no later than Nov. 2, baseball’s free agency bonanza begins. If last year is any indication, it will last right through spring training. Since the Rangers don’t have to worry any longer about defending their World Series title, they can at least begin the process of sorting through their wants and needs.
With payroll expected to fall from $260 million to below the competitive balance tax threshold of $241 million, they may have to focus on needs more than wants. But with that said, let’s continue looking at potential fits.
Today: The outfield.
Overview: The outfield is the one position player group that could see — and, might need — the most attention this offseason. Rookie Wyatt Langford was the Rangers’ most productive outfielder this season and played at an All-Star level in September, but his positional teammates carry more question marks:
- Evan Carter missed three quarters of the season with the second serious back injury of his professional career and has taken just 206 at bats in the major leagues. The 22-year-old was a lead candidate to win the American League Rookie of the Year award but hit just .188 in 45 games before his shutdown.
- Leody Taveras failed to build upon a career-best year in 2023 and was benched vs. left-handed pitchers toward the end of this season. His .641 on base plus slugging was a near-hundred point drop from the year prior, and with nearly 1,600 career major league at bats, there’s a significant sample size to suggest he shouldn’t be an everyday player.
- Adolis García regressed both offensively and defensively, had the fifth-worst WAR (-0.2) of all qualified big leaguers, hit .179 from May-to-July and began the offseason with a knee injury to nurse. Point: He’s only one year removed from an All-Star, ALCS MVP season. Counterpoint: He’ll be 32 years old on opening day and showed significant signs of aging this season.
Sure, there’s a chance that Carter stays healthy and makes good on his hype, that Taveras finally breaks out and that García proves his down season was just a blip. That’s an awful lot to bank on, though, if Texas is serious about contending again.
The big fish: Juan Soto is the biggest fish. He’s the best available player in this year’s free agency class and could command a Shohei Ohtani-esque contract north of $600 million. He’s worth it, too. Soto, 25, is a four-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger and could win his second World Series this fall with the New York Yankees. He ranked top-five leaguewide this season in home runs (41), WAR (8.1) and on base plus slugging percentage (.989).
He’d fit nicely behind Corey Seager in the three-hole and give Texas possibly the AL’s singular best 1-2 punch, but his average annual salary (which could be anywhere from $50-60 million per year) is simply not feasible given the Rangers’ needs.
There aren’t any other impending outfielder free agents who can sniff Soto’s value, but both Teoscar Hernandez (who won the Home Run Derby at Globe Life Field this July) and Anthony Santander (whose 44 home runs were second in the AL this season) could both land nine-figure deals if the market agrees.
The middle tier: Jurickson Profar reunion, anyone? The Rangers’ former top prospect had a breakout season for the San Diego Padres, slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs and made his first All-Star team. He was a full-time left fielder in San Diego and could allow the Rangers to shift Langford into center on a more-permanent basis, and was one of baseball’s better fastball hitters in 2024, too. The Rangers need someone who can handle four-seamers at an above-average level given their struggles with that pitch this season.
The 31-year-old is due a raise in the $10 million range. If he’s a 4.3 WAR, .838 OPS player on an annual basis, it’s good money. If 2024 was a flash in the pan and his career .726 OPS is the norm, it’s a slightly different story.
In this tier also lies Tyler O’Neill. The Rangers sorely missed consistent slugging (their team .380 slugging percentage ranked 23rd in baseball this season) in the middle of the lineup. O’Neill, 29, slugs. He’s hit 30-plus home runs twice since 2021 and had an .847 on base plus slugging percentage for the Boston Red Sox this season. Bonus: He played 18 games at designated hitter for Boston, and Texas still doesn’t have a player who can fill that role on a regular basis. His market value is somewhere between $10-15 million per year.
Veteran presences: Jesse Winker, at 31, isn’t the oldest man in the room, but he’s become a well-traveled option who helped the New York Mets into the NLCS. He played both corner outfield spots and designated hitter for the Washington Nationals and Mets this season and had a .765 on base plus slugging percentage in 145 games. He’s a fourth outfielder in a perfect world, and Carter/Taveras insurance in another.
Mark Canha and Kevin Pillar, both 35, are flawed and aging but could be had for cheap.
Bargain hunting: Harrison Bader hasn’t replicated his early-career success with the St. Louis Cardinals in any of his three stops since with the Mets, Yankees or Cincinnati Reds. He’s had on again, off again success with fastballs and doesn’t walk a ton. He is, however, a plus outfield defender and won’t cost more than $5-7 million. In a similar price range: Hunter Renfroe, a 32-year-old who hit 20 or more home runs in five-straight full seasons before this year with the Kansas City Royals. He regressed offensively in Kansas City, but may be a bounce-back candidate on a shorter-term deal.
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