Ever since Brad Pitt agreed to put a pinch between his cheek and gum and play Billy Beane, everybody in baseball has sought to create a “competitive advantage” that will get them to multiple World Series and maybe get Glen Powell cast as them in the next Moneyball.
We’ve been through WAR, predictive stats, biomechanics and general witchery. Most help, though the jury is still out on witchery. But it’s mostly on the margins. Every team now has a fleet of data analysts and a warehouse full of biomechanical tools.
You want to create the biggest edge in baseball? Or pro sports? Then, lean in close.
It’s ownership.
Oh, and by the way, Stanley Tucci can play us in the film.
The World Series begins Friday with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the New York Yankees. Or put another way: The second highest payroll team in baseball hosting the third. The Dodgers knocked out No. 1 in the NL Championship Series. The six highest payrolls in baseball this season all had one thing in common: They made the postseason.
But, you are saying: The Dodgers haven’t won a “real” World Series since 1988, the lone championship coming in the middle of the COVID bubble in 2020. Clayton Kershaw didn’t even get a parade in Highland Park, much less on Rodeo Drive. The Yankees? Haven’t sniffed the World Series since 2009. Money doesn’t buy what it used to.
In the same time, the Royals won one. So did the Washington Nationals. The Texas Rangers ended 50-plus years of futility. The Cubs said hold Harry Caray’s Budweiser and ended a 100-year drought. To win a championship, get yourself to the tournament. Anything can happen.
True enough. If the goal is to win a World Series. But if you want to take out the article and win World Series, then money still talks louder than any other formula. By all means, invest in development. The Dodgers have. Invest in scouting. The Yankees still do. Invest in research. Both teams do. But, above all else, invest in payroll.
No, it hasn’t won back-to-back World Series for any of them. But if the most important thing is to get to the tournament, well, the Dodgers have done it 12 straight years since emerging from the disastrous McCourt ownership era and bankruptcy. They’ve gone at least as far as the League Championship Series seven times. This is their fourth World Series run. The Yankees? Since they last won a World Series, they’ve been to the postseason 11 times in 15 years and to the LCS seven times. Yes, winning a championship is hard. Yeah, the playoffs have become more like a lottery with expansion. But to win the lottery, you still have to start with buying a ticket.
We bring all this up because as the Rangers prepare to turn in their World Series trophy (don’t worry, kids, it’s a figure of speech; you’ll be able to take pictures with it for years), they face the conundrum: Do they want to be forever known as the 2023 champions? Or as a championship organization? There is a difference. Ask those post-2019 Washington Nationals.
As free agency is about to begin, the Rangers seem determined to get under the competitive balance tax threshold, which will go to $241 million in 2025. Ray Davis does not want to pay luxury tax for a third straight year, when his tax bracket would jump to 50% for anything above that. Davis is the sixth primary owner in Rangers history and based on spending, the best. He’s taken the payroll where it’s never gone. The first three guys were most remembered for off-the-field foibles. Ever since Tom Schieffer, George W. Bush and the late Rusty Rose walked through the doors, ownership became an asset for the team. And, as far as spending goes, it’s only gotten better over time.
Davis’ top priority this winter appears to be getting below the luxury tax threshold to “reset” penalties. That’s priority No. 1. Getting back to the playoffs is a close second, but it’s second, nonetheless. There are other reasons for his desire - mainly the headwinds caused by uncertainty over TV revenues. That’s real.
Nevertheless, if the Rangers are to accomplish both trimming payroll back $20-30 million and getting back to the playoffs, it’s going to require some financial gymnastics.
Let’s assume the Rangers would like to get the opening day payroll to about $220 million (including projected benefits, which is part of the CBT computation). That would leave them some room to make an in-season addition, if needed.
Well, they already have $140 million committed to six players and another $25 million projected for five potential arbitration-eligible players. Even if you filled out the other 15 roster spots with players making the minimum and adding the approximate $18 million benefits hit, it takes the Rangers to the $195 million area. And, trust us, the Detroit Tigers’ amazing run this year aside, chances are you aren’t gonna win with 15 rookies.
It leaves the Rangers about $25 million - if $220 million is the target - to fill out a rotation with another arm or two, to rebuild a bullpen and to maybe deepen a disappointing offense. Shoot, $25 million might be the asking price for Nathan Eovaldi alone.
It’s a quandary.
Doesn’t mean the Rangers can’t do it. They’ve got a sharp GM, a Hall of Fame manager and a blend of some superstar players and young talent. But there are holes. And right now, short of getting a lot of things to simply fall right, it’s going to be a challenge to fill them all. It requires some hope. Last we checked, hope didn’t qualify as a competitive advantage.
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