Evan Help Us: Texas Rangers’ chances to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi and biggest offseason needs

The expiration date on the Texas Rangers’ World Series title is less than weeks away. Instead, as the Dodgers and Yankees prepare for their mega-power World Series clash, the Rangers are deep into offseason preparations.

Not that they’ve let us in on any of what they are preparing.

This much, however, appears clear: They want to reduce payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $241 million for 2025. It means they’ll have precious little to spend on filling a bunch of holes on the roster. All of which leads to lots of questions for you. Well, that’s why I’m here. To try to answer some of them. So let’s go:

ME: Hard to see it at the moment. Of the 129 qualifiers (players with at least 502 plate appearances), García ranked 125th in WAR. He had a 150-point drop in OPS. His struggles with fastballs are well-documented. He had the 14th highest strikeout rate in baseball. He didn’t move as well in the outfield or on the bases. And he ended the season with a knee injury that will take a significant portion of the offseason to mend (though it didn’t require surgery). And his salary is going to more than $9 million for 2025.

It’s hard to find trade value in that. Would somebody take him off your hands? Gladly. But only for nothing in return and if you (the Rangers) agree to pay down his salary a bit. It’s the definition of dumping a perceived bad contract.

If the Rangers were going to trade García, the right time, from a value standpoint, would have been after last season. But, c’mon, are you really going to deal the ALCS MVP and the emotional heart and soul of a world champion? The Rangers couldn’t deal him then either. He was too valuable to the club and it would have looked like you were carving out the team’s heart. No, the Rangers will take García into next year. They will hope the changes he applied late in the year to his setup will stick and they will probably meter out his playing time a little more. When the Rangers face right-handers with plus velocity (95 mph) on their four-seamer, I’d expect the Rangers will think hard about giving García the day off. He hit .119 with a 42% whiff rate against them in 2024. Also, with as hard as he plays, a little less García might actually mean a little fresher García and a bit more relative production.

ME: Well, I don’t think Smith will be a typical backup next year. I think the plan would be for him to get around 400 plate appearances (that number is purely a guess on my part), but something significantly more than traditional backup infielder and a bit less than the workload of a bigger, everyday player. Smith was the biggest pleasant surprise on the roster in 2024, but he still wore down in September after more than doubling his workload from the previous year.

I expect the Rangers to more often rotate Corey Seager through the DH spot to preserve his health and to give Marcus Semien a bit of rest. I’d expect there would be, about 40 starts at short and second if both players avoid the IL entirely. Add another 30 at third base for Josh Jung, again if he stays healthy. And 30 more between DH and perhaps some outfield days. That gets you to about 100 starts and about 350 plate appearances. Now, we all know the chances of everybody staying healthy is slim, so I’d expect Smith’s playing time to go up above that. I’d say 105-110 starts is the sweet spot to extract the most production from him.

You may have noticed the above paragraph does not mention Duran. After a .609 OPS in 2024, his actual value has been diminished, but he’s only 25 and super versatile. Don’t think he’s the headliner in a deal, but somebody might have use for him in the same role I just described as Smith’s sweet spot with the Rangers. Maybe he helps the Rangers address a bullpen need. But, yeah, it does seem like having two of those guys is a bit redundant.

ME: The Rangers would like Eovaldi back. Here’s the problem. They have about $25 million to spend on free agents this winter, in my estimation. They have at least four spots to fill on the roster: One (two would be better) in the rotation, two in the bullpen (both of the highest leverage spots) and a platoon-type catcher. Eovaldi is going to cost over $20 million per year, probably for two years, maybe a third. If you sign him at that price, there are only pennies to spread around to fill out other high priorities. Unless you move another salary. Could the Rangers move Jon Gray, who will make $13 million in 2025, to create more money to allocate for Eovaldi. Maybe. Probably would have to eat some of the salary. If they could do it, I think the Rangers would make every effort.

Common sense says it’s going to be hard to do both of those things and fill all the other holes. All that taken into consideration, I’d put the chances under 50%, probably significantly below that. But I will say this: I think the Rangers are committed to trying to see if they can make it happen. One possibility might be to defer some money, which would devalue the present-day dollars and what gets applied towards the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold. Ray Davis has been against deferring money, but did defer a bit to sign David Robertson for 2024, so maybe there is a creative avenue to explore.

ME: Is the “bullpen” a single position? To me, it’s a single organism. But the Rangers need multiple pieces there - a closer, an eighth-inning guy and maybe somebody for the seventh, too (depending on the status of Josh Sborz). That’s before you get into multi-inning roles, which every team needs every offseason. The Rangers hit home runs with the signings of Kirby Yates and David Robertson last year. They’ve got to do the same with no more - and perhaps less - than the $9 million they spent on Yates and Robertson last season. It’s a puzzle and a challenge.

ME: See the answer about Eovaldi. If they intend to put together a contending team and Ray Davis isn’t willing to write personal checks to make up for the TV shortfall, I think they at least have to consider deferrals. I get that it is a slippery slope and it was part of the downfall of Tom Hicks’ ownership (though getting over-leveraged in other areas was a bigger issue). But I also think the Rangers have started to think optimistically about their long-term TV future. There may need to be some kind of temporary creative bridge and one year of going heavy on deferred money might help. It should be noted that deferred money is still calculated in the CBT computation, but at the rate of present day value, so the assessed contract value comes down some, but not dollar for dollar. In other words, if you defer $10 million from a $20 million deal, the value is assessed at more like $16 or 17 million rather than $10 million. And getting into explaining economics is WAY above my pay grade.

ME: Carter had an ablation procedure done early in the offseason to burn off an area that was causing some inflammation/irritation in his back. It was considered a very minor, non-invasive procedure. And he has since been cleared to begin doing some baseball activities. The belief is that this will allow him to finally get his rehab back on track.

I do offer some skepticism here only because of this: Carter is 22 and has had two of the last three seasons significantly shortened by what is essentially the same back injury. That’s worrisome. Rangers officials have maintained going back to the frustrating part of his recovery during the summer that Carter will basically grow out of this issue. Well, I guess that remains to be determined. For me, Carter’s back, given that it’s been a chronic injury, is more of a concern than all of Josh Jung’s different injuries. Jung’s injuries were the result of individual “catastrophic” events, not the recurrence of a previous issue.

ME: It’s not something that’s been discussed publicly, mostly because I think the assumption is they would. The more viable expansion or relocation spots appear to be Charlotte, Nashville, Portland or even Salt Lake City. Clearly, Austin/San Antonio would be attractive to MLB because of their exponential growth, but I think having a third team in Texas would give the league some pause. There are more “underserved” communities, where revenue might be more easily mined without any existing owner having to make a painful sacrifice.

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