We love retail therapy. It makes us happy. The only thing that makes us happier? When someone else is footing the bill.
So, here we are, happy to spend whatever Texas Rangers owner Ray Davis is willing to allot us to take his team back to contention. We understand the assignment: Get under the $241 million luxury tax threshold to prevent him from paying a 50% tax on every dollar above it. Davis has paid increasingly higher tax rates in both of the last two years on the Rangers’ payroll and, well, you can only look at that World Series trophy so many times without thinking about the costs.
If the Rangers can get under $241 million for the 2025 season, which includes payroll, performance bonuses, about $18 million in benefits and a contribution to the pre-arbitration bonus pool, then the tax bracket resets. The threshold goes up to $244 million in 2026 and, if the Rangers exceed that (no guarantees they will), the tax falls back to 20% on the overage.
There is a real practical reason for wanting to get below the threshold, too. The Rangers simply don’t know what to count on in terms of TV revenues for 2025 since they will be leaving the Diamond Sports regional sports network group and attempting to put together their own deal. They were supposed to get about $110 million annually from Diamond, which dropped to about $92 million after the outlet went bankrupt. The Rangers are optimistic about their long-term TV futures, but they aren’t likely to recoup everything in this first year of a transition.
Depending on the source, the Rangers have between $185-195 million already committed for 2025 and have a myriad of needs, including at least one starting pitcher, at least two relievers (maybe three), a second catcher capable of being more than just a backup and maybe another bat.
While neither Davis nor Chris Young has commented on how much payroll will decrease, it’s only clear that it is expected to fall. To account for potential performance bonuses being met and to allow for a potential trade deadline acquisition, it’s hard to see the Rangers going above $215-220 million for opening day.
So, with all that in mind, we’re going to attempt to spend what we believe is available and try to get the Rangers back to contention. The first decision is the hardest: Acknowledging what can’t be done. In short, there is no viable way, short of moving current players, to get a bat in free agency. So, we’ll cross that off the list before we start.
And with that out of the way, let’s spend. Judiciously.
Roki Sasaki
Given the Rangers’ limitations, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, and his 100 mph fastball, represents the closest thing to a potential miracle. If Chiba Lotte of Nippon Professional Baseball decides to post him. And if he somehow can be coaxed into not being the third spoke in the Dodgers’ attempt to build an all-Japanese rotation. It’s a lot of ifs. But the Rangers will invest a lot of time and energy, because that doesn’t come with a price tag. Sasaki has a 2.02 ERA in four seasons in Japan.
If Sasaki, who turns 23 in November, is to come to MLB next year, it will be via the posting system, which means the dollars allotted for a signing bonus would all come out of the pre-allotted international free agency signing pool. In other words, it wouldn’t cost the Rangers an extra dollar of payroll or toward the CBT threshold to sign a guy who would instantly go to the top of their rotation. It would be the biggest win of the offseason for them. Actually, it would be the biggest win anybody could have this offseason. Also, the chances of it happening are probably less than 20%.
Proposed payroll outlay: $760,000 (major league minimum)
Starting pitcher
If the Rangers were to land Sasaki, they’d probably only need one other starter. If they don’t, well, nothing changes because they wouldn’t be able to afford more than one established starting pitcher. And even that might be asking a lot.
For our purposes, we’d allocate the majority of our available money — somewhere between $15-18 million — on a pitcher. Here’s the issue: While it’s a huge investment of our dollars, the going rate for a middle-of-the-rotation starter is probably $18 million and up. For context, Nathan Eovaldi’s annual average value (AAV) for 2024 was $17 million and he earned another $3 million in performance bonuses. Andrew Heaney: A base of $13 million and he earned $5 million in performance bonuses.
Bottom line: To get either will require going to the land of deferred money in an effort to reduce the current-day value of the deal. For Eovaldi, here’s the proposal: A 2-year, $45 million offer ($22.5 million per year) with $20 of that deferred in four annual payments of $5 million from 2030-33. It would bring the competitive balance tax (CBT) hit down to about $18 million per year, essentially flat off his 2024 season. And to do it, it would require convincing Davis to make the free agent pool closer to $30 million than $25 million.
If not Eovaldi, then the focus would be on re-signing Heaney, hoping to keep that CBT hit to $15 million, which would likely require a base of $18 million for two years with a similar deferral plan to the Eovaldi proposal.
One way of creating more financial flexibility would be to move a contract. Jon Gray, who has had seven IL stints in three years with the Rangers, pitched only 102 innings in 2024. His CBT value will be $14 million. A thought: Consider moving Gray while swallowing some of the salary to move some of the savings toward an Eovaldi or Heaney deal. It becomes more attractive if you could move him for a potential platoon bat that could provide insurance in the outfield or at DH. It still, however, would create another hole in the rotation that would have to be filled somehow.
Another thought, if all else fails, consider phoning the Diamondbacks about a swap of Gray for Jordan Montgomery, whose contract the Diamondbacks would like to be rid of. This wouldn’t save the Rangers money, but say the Rangers and Diamondbacks agreed to swap the pitchers and split the salaries? It would mean adding Montgomery for a net addition of about $5 million. A risk based off last season, but the Rangers love Montgomery and he wanted to be back in Texas.
Proposed payroll outlay: $15-18 million AAV
Bullpen
It’s hard to do a better job than the Rangers did in getting value and production from a pair of free-agent signings than they did with Kirby Yates and David Robertson. It cost them $16 million in CBT value — $11 million in actual dollars since $5 million of Robertson’s money was deferred. It was almost like it was too easy. So let’s up the degree of difficulty. The challenge: Do it again with about half as much money. In other words: Find the next Yates and Robertson for $8 million.
It would seemingly require more deferrals. You can see why the practice gets fiscally dangerous. So, here’s the pitch to Yates: Two years, $14 million with $5 million deferred in $1 million payments from 2028-32. Gets the CBT hit to about $6 million per year. To make it happen might be all the Rangers could do there.
But Davis’ history is that with a persuasive argument — and an affordable option — he’ll make a little extra room. He was always willing to do that to bring Highland Park’s Clayton Kershaw back to Dallas.
OK, what about another local kid made good? Arlington’s Chris Martin, now 38, just like Robertson when the Rangers signed him last winter. Martin has rejuvenated his career after a 2022 trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a 1.82 ERA in 121 innings with a 10.8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate since the trade. Martin did miss some time with anxiety issues last summer, but came back effectively for the final two months of the season. Would $5 million land him? Might at least open up some conversations.
If they can land Yates and Martin for a total of $12 million, it would be an outlay Davis would have to consider.
Others who might fit at fewer dollars are Andrew Kittredge and lefty A.J. Minter, who will be in his second year back from Tommy John surgery. Minter, 30, is also an East Texas guy, for whatever that’s worth. And let’s be clear here: Texans love Texas, but it’s an unwise strategy to think anybody is going to give up dollars for Texas. The Rangers have too often bet on that. The issue with just going to Kittredge and Minter as the top priority to save money: Neither has much closing experience. That’s valuable.
Proposed payroll outlay: $8-12 million AAV
Catcher
The budget here is going to be scraps — basically anything that might be left over, if there is anything. Hard to find a way to allot more than $2 million for a guy you think can be capable of catching 70-ish games and maybe even pushing Jonah Heim for more.
Carson Kelly, now a free agent, made $3 million in 2024. He’s averaged 71 starts over the last four years. To get him, you probably have to stretch the $2 million figure a little. Kelly got to $3 million based on playing time and service time under the arbitration system. It may be hard to get more than that in free agency.
To get Kyle Higashioka, coming off a 17-homer season with San Diego, you’d have to stretch a bit more. Stretching $2 million to $3 million or so isn’t a lot, but with more austerity in the free agency budget, all dollars matter.
Proposed payroll outlay: $2-3 million
Proposed total free agency expenditures: Approximately $26-33 million.
Proposed total opening day payroll (for CBT rolls): Approximately $216-223 million
Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant
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