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SMU prediction: Can Mustangs knock off TCU as Iron Skillet rivalry nears pause?

SMU will host TCU at 4 p.m. Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium for the annual Iron Skillet Rivalry game.

The Iron Skillet Rivalry resumes this weekend when SMU hosts TCU for the 103rd meeting all-time between the two D-FW programs.

Both teams are coming off losses to Big 12 teams, as SMU fell narrowly to BYU two weeks ago before its bye and TCU lost by one point to UCF last weekend.

Given the history of the rivalry and that it’s set to end after next season, both teams are eager to knock off the other.

Here is what to know about this week’s matchup:

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SMU vs. TCU

When: 4 p.m. Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park

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Records: SMU (2-1); TCU (2-1)

Last meeting: TCU beat SMU 34-17 on Sept. 23, 2023.

What’s at stake?

A lot is at stake for SMU this weekend, both in terms of its rivalry with TCU and its season ahead.

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Saturday’s contest is the final time the Iron Skillet Rivalry will come to Ford Stadium for the foreseeable future, as TCU is pausing the rivalry following the 2025 season.

The Mustangs have not beaten TCU since 2021 and have only won two of the last 10 meetings. With just two remaining, they’re eager to prove themselves as a power-conference opponent when facing their top rival.

Beyond the implications of bringing the Iron Skillet home to University Park, Saturday’s game is SMU’s final non-conference game before playing an eight-game ACC slate for the first time in program history.

Throughout the first three games, the Mustangs have shown some promise, especially defensively, but some inconsistencies on offense and will seek to find some stability under quarterback Kevin Jennings in his first start of the year.

When SMU has the ball

Two Mustangs will be at the center of SMU’s efforts against TCU this week.

All eyes will be on Jennings, who is starting for the third time in his college career for SMU after earning the QB1 job over Preston Stone during the bye week.

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Jennings could provide a spark as a dual-threat quarterback and challenge TCU’s defense on the ground.

The same could be true for running back Brashard Smith, a player TCU head coach Sonny Dykes pointed to as one he’s planning for.

The Horned Frogs have struggled against skilled run games this year, giving up 289 yards and two touchdowns to UCF last week.

With running back Jaylan Knighton out, Smith and LJ Johnson Jr. will take most of the snaps and could be a key advantage for SMU.

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When TCU has the ball

SMU’s defense has been strong to start the year, giving the team a chance to win each week.

But against TCU and sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover, it faces its toughest challenge yet.

Over the last two games, the Mustangs have forced three turnovers each, and those takeaways have been critical to their success. However, Hoover has been near-flawless this year, completing 70% of his passes for 1,022 yards and eight touchdowns without an interception.

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He also has a talented receiving room led by receivers Jack Bech and Savion Williams, who have combined for over 500 yards and five touchdowns so far this season.

Safeties Ahmaad Moses and Isaiah Nwokobia are tied for the team lead in tackles this year (18 each). They and the rest of the secondary will have to expect a lot of action this weekend.

Prediction

SMU and TCU are both hungry in a rivalry week coming off losses, so expect a close and hard-fought battle between both teams.

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But amid the quarterback switch and after the start to the year that Smith has had, TCU will struggle against SMU’s run game — and SMU’s secondary will challenge Hoover and the TCU receivers in ways he hasn’t seen this year.

The game is always a toss up, but SMU will get the edge in front of a home crowd.

Prediction: SMU 20, TCU 17

On X/Twitter: @Lassimak

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