Each week SMU walks away with a win puts the Mustangs one step closer to a goal no one thought was possible when the season kicked off.
As a new team joining a power conference for the first time in decades, expectations were high for what SMU could do in the ACC, but the program was given a ceiling in the preseason to what its goals could be.
Many college football experts said even though SMU was picked to finish seventh in the conference, having a winning record would be challenging. The teams that moved to the Big 12 last year struggled to do so. A bowl game was seen as the ultimate goal.
But now after securing bowl eligibility during its seventh game of the year, the Mustangs have a chance to play for more.
“I think our guys do know we’ve just put ourselves in a position to play for stuff continually down the stretch,” SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee said after Saturday’s 40-10 win at Stanford.
The Mustangs (6-1, 3-0) are still in the running for the ACC title and even a spot in the new expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. ESPN’s playoff predictor gives SMU a 31% chance to make the CFP, while The Athletic’s model has them as a bubble team with a 33% chance.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Mustangs with a 23.4% chance to win the ACC in their first year and a 14% chance to win their final five games of the season.
While the numbers say the Mustangs’ playoff hopes are higher than their chances to win the conference, reaching the playoff seems like an uphill battle without a conference championship on their resume.
Unless SMU can secure an automatic bid as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, it will only get in if it’s awarded an at-large bid. That could force the selection committee to make a challenging decision between putting in a two-loss conference runner-up and a one-loss ACC team that didn’t make the conference championship game. With the talent in other conferences like the SEC and Big Ten, there may not be room for three ACC teams.
SMU wouldn’t be able to control its own destiny in that situation, but it can in the road to the conference championship game, for the most part. The Mustangs are undefeated in ACC play (3-0) and are favored in the remainder of their games, according to ESPN.
But even if SMU wins out and finishes 8-0 in the ACC, Miami and Clemson could do the same. The three conference frontrunners do not play each other this year.
That would force the ACC into a complicated tiebreaker situation. Head-to-head and winning percentage against common opponents would not differentiate the three teams. Instead, it would likely come down to combined win percentage of conference opponents.
As it currently stands, SMU and Miami would earn the two spots based on the record of their conference opponents thus far, but that is subject to change throughout the last five weeks of conference play.
Of course, if any of those three teams lose, which is likely still with nearly half the season to go, it could clear a path for the others. If multiple teams lose, it may open the door for one-loss conference teams like Duke, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.
Pitt is still in the conversation with Clemson, Miami and SMU, as the Panthers are 6-0 and 2-0 in ACC play. SMU will host Pitt on Nov. 2 (with the Mustangs entering as favorites), and that game will make one team’s chances of getting to Charlotte in December much more challenging.
Pitt also still has to play Clemson on Nov. 16.
SMU’s next two games against Duke (6-1, 2-1) and Pitt are the two most important remaining on its schedule. If SMU can maintain its perfect ACC record through that stretch, it’ll take on three final opponents with a combined 3-8 conference record so far.
“I do not think we’ve gotten by our toughest game,” Lashlee said. “Yes, preseason hype, we got by our toughest games on paper, but now you look, and I think five of our last six opponents have winning records. All the teams left on our schedule are playing good football.”
SMU controls its own destiny as it currently stands. It’s in a position most teams would do anything to be in this time of year.
On X/Twitter: @Lassimak
