The next two weeks may be the most important stretch of games SMU has left on its schedule if it hopes to keep its ACC Championship and College Football Playoff hopes alive.
To maintain a perfect conference record, the Mustangs (6-1, 3-0) will travel to Durham to face a Duke team (6-1, 2-1) that has only lost one home game in the last two seasons.
SMU and Duke have not played since 1956, but there is a lot of history between the two coaching staffs, as SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee served as offensive coordinator under Duke head coach Manny Diaz at Miami from 2020-21. Duke offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer also served as SMU’s offensive co-coordinator last season.
Here’s what to know about this week’s matchup.
SMU vs. Duke
When: 7 p.m. CT Saturday at Wallace Wade Stadium
Records: SMU (6-1, 3-0); Duke (6-1, 2-1)
Last meeting: Duke beat SMU 14-6 on Oct. 13, 1956.
What’s at stake?
SMU has put itself in a position where every game matters for the rest of its season.
Both Duke and SMU are in the running for the ACC Championship game, with the Mustangs having a clearer path as long as they can continue to win.
If SMU beats Duke, the Blue Devils will have two conference losses, effectively eliminating them from contention for the ACC title.
If SMU loses, it no longer controls its own destiny and can only make the conference title game if other teams lose.
The Mustangs are also playing to extend their road win streak, which is tied for the longest in FBS now at eight games.
When SMU has the ball
SMU will face one of the most complete defenses on its schedule this year when it takes on Duke.
The Blue Devils lead the ACC in sacks (24) and fumble recoveries (eight) while ranking second in total defense and forced fumbles (eight). They also lead the nation in tackles for loss.
Duke hasn’t given up more than 24 points in a game this season.
SMU will also play its first game this season without tight end RJ Maryland, who was ruled out for the year earlier this week, as he will need season-ending knee surgery. That means more responsibility will fall on SMU’s wide receivers and tight end Matthew Hibner.
The Mustangs are averaging 45.5 points in their last four games, but Kevin Jennings and the offense may have to work a little harder against Duke’s defense.
When Duke has the ball
Duke is led by Texas transfer Maalik Murphy at quarterback, who is having a standout season so far with 1,501 yards passing and 14 touchdowns.
SMU’s secondary will be challenged to step up again after handling significant tests against TCU and Louisville.
But the Mustangs will again put an emphasis on stopping the run, as they have all year. Duke running back Star Thomas has 616 yards rushing and four touchdowns this season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee said he feels if his team can stop the run and keep Duke behind the chains that Murphy will be forced into some challenging throws, and both the pass rush and secondary will step up.
SMU’s defense is coming off a standout performance against Stanford where it totaled six sacks, 11 tackles for loss and allowed just 33 yards rushing.
Prediction
Diaz said earlier this week that Lashlee has always been among the best at generating explosive plays. With players like Brashard Smith and Jennings, the Duke defense will have their hands full.
SMU’s offense is the best that Duke has faced this year. Based on its last four games, it should be able to exceed that 24-point mark that Duke has held its opponents to this year, even without Maryland in the lineup.
Even though Duke’s defense has been one of the conference’s best this year, SMU’s has, too, in many categories and has shown improvements each week.
It may not be as easy of a win as last week’s, but SMU has the tools to take down the Blue Devils on their home turf.
Score: SMU 35, Duke 24
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