No matter the result of this regular season for the Stars, they can take solace in Jason Robertson’s breakout season as a rookie.
Now, what hardware Robertson might be able to take away is another topic all together.
Robertson, 21, has vaulted himself into the Calder Trophy conversation this season thanks to eight goals and 16 assists in 32 games, including a March outburst that featured 16 points in 17 games to lead all rookies.
Outside of Roope Hintz (when he’s playing), Robertson has been the team’s best offensive weapon at even strength. He’s been steady winning pucks along the walls, a constant in both overtime and shootouts, and a magician finding passing seams in the offensive zone.
For the third straight season — after Miro Heiskanen in 2018-19 and Denis Gurianov in 2019-20 — the Stars have one of the league’s top rookies. But does it mean Robertson has a chance in Calder Trophy voting?
“I don’t know why not,” Joe Pavelski said earlier this season. “There’s a lot of season left and when he stepped into our lineup, he’s kind of taken off. He’s gotten better and better. With a big second half, who knows? He’s been a big piece that’s helping us get some extra points.”
Minnesota forward Kirill Kaprizov has been the Calder frontrunner for almost the entire season. He has good reason to be in that position as he leads the playoff-bound Wild in goals (14) and points (31). Among Minnesota forwards, he plays the most by more than a minute. He’s electric holding on to pucks in the offensive zone and captivating with his skating.
His status as the favorite is well-earned.
While Kaprizov is the main target if Robertson is to track down the Calder Trophy, there are other candidates. The Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin, Chicago’s Kevin Lankinen and Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic have all been strong in net. New Jersey defenseman Ty Smith is averaging almost 20 minutes a night for the Devils. Ottawa’s pair of Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris have been productive, as has Eeli Tolvanan in Nashville.
Because of individual production and on-ice impact, Robertson should be ahead of many of those players, though it’s tough to truly compare skaters and goalies.
What are the holes in Kaprizov’s résumé?
Voters (the Calder is voted on by 100 members of the PHWA this season) might have an issue with Kaprizov’s age. The Russian winger will turn 24 on April 26, which would make him the second-oldest Calder winner in the last 20 years. The only older winner would have been Artemi Panarin, who turned 24 in October of the 2015-16 season.
Kaprizov was drafted two years before Robertson and played professionally for three years in the KHL before joining Minnesota this season. He was a point-per-game producer in the KHL while Robertson was leading the OHL in scoring.
There would be something poetic, though, about an older Russian winning the Calder over a Stars forward, just as 31-year-old Sergei Makarov beat out 19-year-old Mike Modano in 1989-90.
Both players rely mostly on 5 on 5 to produce instead of the power play (unlike Tolvanen) and Kaprizov owns slight edges in most categories per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick.
| Category | Kaprizov | Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per 60 | 1.18 | 0.88 |
| Assists per 60 | 1.77 | 1.75 |
| Points per 60 | 2.95 | 2.63 |
| Shots per 60 | 7.19 | 8.46 |
| Shot attempts per 60 | 12.97 | 12.26 |
| Scoring chances per 60 | 6.48 | 7.01 |
| High-danger chances per 60 | 3.42 | 2.92 |
| Expected goals per 60 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
That type of production from Kaprizov with almost 100 minutes more than Robertson is hard to ignore.
But the Stars are a much better team with Robertson on the ice than the Wild are with Kaprizov on the ice. Dallas is much better possessing the puck and generating quality looks with Robertson. Minnesota, meanwhile, chases the game more but has benefited from strong goaltending and an outlandish shooting percentage to outscore teams with Kaprizov on the ice.
Here are their team’s numbers with them on the ice at 5 on 5, according to Natural Stat Trick.
| Category | Kaprizov | Robertson |
|---|---|---|
| Shot attempts for | 46.40% | 54.72% |
| Shots for | 46.40% | 53.92% |
| Scoring chances for | 46.52% | 57.18% |
| High-danger chances for | 49.10% | 58.62% |
| Expected goals for | 47.01% | 54.98% |
| Goals for | 58.33% | 58.97% |
Kaprizov faces off against opponent’s top lines, as some of his most common on-ice opponents are Vegas and Colorado’s top lines, centered by William Karlsson and Nathan MacKinnon, respectively. He draws other team’s top defensemen as well, matching up with Cale Makar, Drew Doughty, Alex Martinez and Samuel Girard often. That could affect his possession numbers.
Robertson, meanwhile, typically draws third lines to play against (think Yanni Gourde, Jordan Staal and Calle Jarnkrok) but also goes head-to-head against top defensemen. Jaccob Slavin, Roman Josi and Victor Hedman are three of the four most common defensemen Robertson has played against this season.
In a twist of irony, the thing that has contributed to Robertson’s play may be a drawback to his Calder campaign: being healthy scratched five games in a row in February.
At the time, Robertson was a nonfactor in the Stars’ first two games, without a shot on goal. Coach Rick Bowness wanted Robertson to see the game differently and notice the space he had around him. Robertson re-watched his shifts while on the taxi squad and asked questions. When he returned, he took off.
But while Robertson was watching games, Kaprizov was racking up highlights and turning heads across the continent. He captured the national attention as he deserved, and hasn’t lost it since.
