Mathematically, the Stars can still make the playoffs on their own. Realistically, they’ll need help from some of their Central Division brethren.
With 18 games remaining, they are seven points behind Nashville for fourth place in the Central Division with three games in hand on the Predators. The Stars play the Preds two more times, and with two wins over Nashville, plus wins in their three surplus games, Dallas would set itself up for a postseason berth.
But if this season has taught the Stars anything, it’s to not count on anything.
The coronavirus has disrupted the season, both in postponing the first four games then forcing Anton Khudobin and Rick Bowness to miss games with false positive test results. There was the winter storm in Dallas two months ago. Injuries have ravaged the roster. The schedule has aggravated the climb up the standings.
Dallas has won just 14 of 38 games. It has won consecutive games just once in the last 10 weeks. It’s 2-10 in overtimes and shootouts. It’s 5-11-10 in games decided by one or two goals. So, while possible to make a run on their own, the Stars will have to rely on dips from Nashville or Chicago.
So how does the final month of the season shape up for the three teams? What each team has remaining on its schedule, with games remaining, home games, opponent points percentage and back to backs:
| Team | Games | Home games | Opponent points percentage | Back-to-backs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville | 15 | 9 | .609 | 2 |
| Chicago | 15 | 7 | .572 | 2 |
| Dallas | 18 | 8 | .562 | 4 |
The Stars benefit greatly from playing Detroit four more times this season, twice as many games against the Red Wings as the Blackhawks (two) while Nashville has already exhausted its supply against Detroit. Dallas does have the issue of playing its final seven games of the season on the road, and they have four sets of back-to-backs, which likely limits Roope Hintz’s availability down the stretch.
Nashville, despite playing more than half of its games (eight) against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Florida, only has six road games left this season and has multiple games with two-plus days of rest.
The Predators are on pace to finish the season with 61 points, so how would Dallas and Chicago need to perform in order to catch them? Each team’s point total, 56-game pace and record needed to reach 61 points:
| Team | Total points | Current 56-game pace | Record needed to reach 61 points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville | 45 | 61 | 8-7-0 |
| Chicago | 41 | 56 | 10-5-0 |
| Dallas | 38 | 56 | 11-6-1 |
Asking the Stars to win 11 more games in a season when they’ve won just 14 sounds like a bit much, of course, but injuries in Nashville and Dallas will greatly dictate what happens down the stretch.
The Predators announced Thursday that rookie standout Eeli Tolvanen (lower body) and top-four defenseman Dante Fabbro (upper body) were week to week, while fourth-line winger Mathieu Olivier is out 4-6 weeks with a lower-body injury. Nashville is already without stalwarts Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene and Ryan Ellis, though general manager David Poile said recently they could return soon after Monday’s trade deadline.
Nashville is also without depth players Brad Richards, Mark Borowiecki and Luca Sbisa. Plus it missed Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Luke Kunin and Juuse Saros earlier this season.
The only team that might be more injured than the Stars is the team they’re trying to chase down.
On Saturday, injured Stars Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov and Ben Bishop will take a step forward by skating with the taxi squad, setting them up for a return soon after. The team has been hesitant to set a target date before the trio practices with Dallas.
The Stars are also without Jason Dickinson, Joel Kiviranta and Joel Hanley, while Hintz fights through a nagging injury to play the majority of games this season.
The healthiest team in the next month could determine who has the privilege of playing Carolina, Tampa Bay or Florida in the first round of the playoffs.
