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Stars’ first round options aren’t appealing, but could improve slightly with strong final push

Despite a winning record against Colorado, Dallas has been badly outplayed in their three matchups.

EDMONTON, Alberta — The Stars are technically still fighting to qualify for the playoffs, but the greater conversation surrounding the team should be about who they’ll face in the first round.

Will it be the league-leading Avalanche? Or are they destined to meet the Flames?

Entering Tuesday, the Stars were tied with Nashville in the Western Conference standings, as each team had 91 points through 76 games. The Predators owned the first Wild Card spot because of their 35-29 edge in regulation wins, pushing the Stars down to the second Wild Card spot.

If the Stars can finish with more points than Nashville, they’ll face Calgary. If they remain in the second Wild Card spot, they’ll draw Colorado.

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“We want to get as high as we can with the few amount of games we have left here,” Stars captain Jamie Benn said Monday morning.

The Stars could have taken a massive step towards playoff qualification on Monday night in Vancouver, but instead were trounced 6-2 by the Canucks. Still, many models (including MoneyPuck, HockeyViz and Hockey-Reference) place the Stars’ probability of making the playoffs above 90%.

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They can boost that number with points in their final two road games of the season in Edmonton on Wednesday and in Calgary on Thursday. Dallas finishes its season with a four-game home stand with all four games against teams not currently in the playoffs.

“We’ve got to keep winning to stay where we are and we’ve got to keep winning to keep those teams chasing us away from us,” Stars coach Rick Bowness said. “A little bit of both.”

The Avalanche have been the league’s best team this season, as their .763 points percentage barely edging out Florida’s .760 mark. Colorado may finish with 125 points, and that’s with notable absences from Gabriel Landeskog (25 games), Valeri Nichushkin (19 games) Nathan MacKinnon (16 games) and Nazem Kadri (11 games) this season.

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They are third in the league in goals per game, and their starting goaltender boasts a .924 save percentage. Colorado’s quality is convincing.

Dallas went 2-1-0 against the Avalanche, but that record can be misleading. The first win in November came against a Colorado team without MacKinnon. The second win in February was on the backs of a 46-save performance from Jake Oettinger in Denver.

In total, the Stars have been badly outplayed by the Avalanche, controlling just 40.7% of shot attempts, 36.0% of shots on goal and 35.9% of expected goals at 5 on 5 during the three games against Colorado. Somehow, Dallas was only outscored 4-3 at 5 on 5 in those games.

Calgary is only slightly less threatening. The Stars have gone 1-1-0 against the Flames this season, and the loss before the All-Star break included a blown two-goal lead in the third period. The series finale between the teams is later this week.

While you may argue that the Stars should be 2-0-0 against the Flames this season, they’ve also been badly outplayed by Calgary at 5 on 5 in the first two games. The Stars have controlled just 38.3% of shot attempts, 39.2% of shots on goal and 44.4% of expected goals vs. the Flames.

Goaltender Jacob Markstrom leads the league with nine shutouts but has also played 61 games, the third-most in the NHL. Johnny Gaudreau has 107 points this season, and the Flames boast a top line that might even be better than the Stars’ top trio.

Neither Colorado nor Calgary are appetizing options for the Stars, but if given the chance, they should want to play the team with 15 fewer points in the standings.

They should also want to stay away from the Central Division side of the Western Conference bracket. The Central will likely place five teams into the playoffs this season, and the Pacific Division is weak enough that Dallas would currently be in third place in it.

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If the Stars drew Colorado, they would be looking at a potential second-round matchup with either St. Louis (102 points) or Minnesota (101). Out in the Pacific, the second round could be against Edmonton (94) or Los Angeles (90), assuming Vegas (87) or Vancouver (86) don’t sneak into third place.

The Stars don’t have good options in the playoffs. It’s part of the deal when you finish as a Wild Card team. But they can marginally improve their chances of an improbable run with a strong finish in the season’s last six games.

“Of course we want to get the best spot we can and win every game down the road,” Stars forward Roope Hintz said. “That’s our main thing.”

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