In a series with ‘razor-thin margins,’ where can Stars create distance from Vegas?

The Stars started their playoff campaign 0-2 at home, sacrificing home-ice advantage to the eighth-seeded Vegas Golden Knights before hitting the road where they’ll face the defending champions at T-Mobile Arena for the first time since they captured the Stanley Cup title in June.

It’s a bleak picture from the outside, but when diving deep into the numbers from Games 1 and 2, there’s plenty of opportunity for Dallas to gain some ground.

Stars coach Pete DeBoer said he’s been encouraged by some areas of his team’s game, especially in Game 2. On paper, the margins are razor thin in most categories, meaning a couple of bounces in Vegas’ favor have been the difference between a 2-0 and 0-2 start.

As Dallas seeks to climb out of the hole it created on Saturday and Monday, here is a look at three areas where the Stars could have an advantage.

Shot and quality scoring-chance advantage

Expected goals is a controversial stat that many like to ignore because, at the end of the day, only the goals that go in count. However, it can provide some context not reflected in the final score.

While Vegas has outscored Dallas 7-4 in the first two games of the series, the Stars have a 64.08 expected goals percentage so far in 5-on-5 situations, according to MoneyPuck, which leads all NHL playoff teams. For the only Western Conference team down 0-2 in a series, it’s indicative of how competitive Dallas has been.

It’s because Dallas has dominated the quality scoring chances, totaling 22 high-danger chances compared to 15 for Vegas. They even lead in shots on goal with a 50-41 advantage.

Even though the Stars just had five shots in each of the last two periods of Game 2, they only gave up 15 total in Game 1. Shots and quality scoring chances are harder to come by in the playoffs. But Dallas is getting opportunities, and if that continues, at a certain point the team will start to capitalize.

In addition to maintaining that offensive pressure, second-chance shots will be an area of focus, especially as Vegas goalie Logan Thompson started to show some holes in Game 2. Thompson ranks second-to-last among goalies right now in rebounds per save in the postseason (.085). Jake Oettinger, on the other hand, ranks fifth in the league (.051).

Dallas has had only 14 second-chance shots this series, but Vegas has had even fewer at just seven. That’s a difference where Dallas can find a goal or two each night.

“Some of it’s going to have to come from the o-zone in attacking areas, getting shots through from the point, supporting pucks, coming around corners with it, battling around the net and trying to find a second or third opportunity,” Stars forward Joe Pavelski said.

Rush chances

DeBoer and the Stars players all noted Friday how the rush has dried up and how challenging it’s been for both teams to move through the neutral zone through the first two games.

There hasn’t appeared to be much wiggle room in that area, which is why the Stars have relied on a dump-and-chase tactic more so than they did in the regular season. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy said that’s been a big part of their defensive strategy.

“We’re trying to limit their rush, so we have a certain game plan in that,” he said. “It works in spots. Other times, they had some. They beat us up the ice a couple of times, had some good looks.”

Even with Vegas’ strong sticks and defensive ability, Dallas still has the series advantage in rush attempts.

Dallas has nine attempts — with Jason Robertson accounting for three alone — compared to just three total for Vegas, according to Natural Stat Trick. One of those chances did lead to the critical first-period goal by Jonathan Marchessault in Game 2 on a stunning setup from Jack Eichel.

Throughout the regular season, Dallas was the better team on the rush, generating 22 more chances than Vegas. While it likely won’t be their primary focus given how well Vegas has shut it down, it’s another area that only takes a few opportunities per game to turn into goals.

“They’re not giving us a lot of clean rush, so it’s being satisfied going forecheck,” Pavelski said. “When the play’s there, you’ve got to make it. It’s been clogged up kind of both ways. There’s not been a lot of odd-numbered rushes. That’s what we’ve got to work through.”

Special teams

The Stars want to win this series in 5-on-5 play, and DeBoer said he thinks it will come down to that, but in games where offensive opportunities are harder to come by, special teams is an area they need to capitalize on.

In the regular season, Dallas and Vegas ranked first and second, respectively, in fewest penalty minutes taken. They were separated by a single minute.

But when they did find themselves on the man-advantage or penalty kill, the Stars were better in both.

Dallas ranked sixth in power-play percentage (24.2%) and eighth in penalty kill (82%) in the regular season while Vegas ranked 20th in power-play (20.2%) and 16th in penalty kill (79.3%).

In the playoffs, the Stars and Golden Knights have taken an even 10 penalty minutes each. Vegas is 2-for-3 on the power play, scoring both of its goals in Game 1, while the Stars are 1-for-3 after Robertson’s power-play goal in Game 2.

In a series with margins as thin as this one, the Stars will need to capitalize on even the smaller areas. Drawing more penalties and finding the net on a man advantage should be an easier way for Dallas to generate some offense.

“It comes down to someone sticking a puck in the net at the right time, a big save at the right time, the special teams battle,” DeBoer said. “When you get two teams that are really evenly matched in a lot of areas, that’s what decides it. We’ve got to get some guys to be those separators, so to speak, in those situations.”

On X/Twitter: @Lassimak

Find more Stars coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.