If you’re TCU, take nothing for granted when it comes to the College Football Playoff.
By almost any standard, the Horned Frogs (12-0, 9-0 Big 12) should already be savoring their upcoming spot in the CFP – just like fellow unbeatens Georgia and Michigan.
But CFP selection has proven to be much more of an art than a science, where the 13-person committee can forego common sense, resumes and pretty much everything else at times. Remember when TCU went from No. 3 in the rankings to No. 6 in the span of five days in 2014 after a 55-3 win over Iowa State? Rest assured, the Horned Frogs remember.
Against that backdrop, TCU’s best playoff path is to do against Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game Saturday at AT&T Stadium what it has done in its previous dozen games.
In other words, leave nothing for granted.
Yes, TCU is the first Big 12 team in 13 years to go through the regular-season undefeated. The Horned Frogs went on a remarkable run in October with four consecutive wins against ranked teams, something that had happened just two times before.
Five times, TCU has rallied from second-half deficits to win. That includes an 18-point comeback against Kansas State and a 17-point rally against Oklahoma State.
TCU can also be dominant when it wants. It held potent Texas to 199 yards total offense in a road win.
And the offense was definitely on its game against Iowa State in a 62-14 win. Even if you take away the two defense touchdowns and another score after a bad punt snap, TCU scored 41 points on the Cyclones – 10 more points than any other opponent. And even with the lopsided loss, Iowa State ranks eighth nationally in total defense.
Noted sports numbers cruncher Jeff Sagarin has the Big 12 ranked just ahead of the SEC West and East as the toughest conference/division in college football.
“It’s a gauntlet. I think people that know, really study the game, know how good the league is,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said after the Iowa State win.
The Horned Frogs have Heisman candidate in gritty quarterback Max Duggan and running back Kendre Miller has run for 1,260 yards and 16 touchdowns. The defense was opportunistic and aggressive against Iowa State. Kicker Griffin Kell is a budding legend after the game-winning field goal at Baylor.
Except, what happens if TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game?
Imagine the discussion in the conference room at Grapevine between a once-beaten TCU, a once-beaten Ohio State and twice-beaten Alabama for one spot. Is there any belief that TCU would emerge in that debate with two of the bluest of blue bloods.
Already, Alabama coach Nick Saban and Ohio State coach Ryan Day have begun lobbying for a spot in the playoff.
Of course, beating Kansas State (9-3, 7-2) is hardly a given. TCU opened as a 2.5-point favorite. The Wildcats were dominating play before backup quarterback Will Howard was hurt and had to briefly leave the game.
In his last three games since becoming the unquestioned QB1, Howard has thrown seven touchdown passes and K-State is averaging 42 points a game.
Running back Deuce Vaughn ran for 147 yards and a touchdown in a 47-27 win over Kansas that put the Wildcats in the championship.
While Kansas State is headed to the Sugar Bowl whether it wins or loses, the Wildcats have incentive, too.
“The implications of us thrusting ourselves into the Big 12 championship, this is what we’ve been working for the last 11 months,” Vaughn said. “For it to come to fruition, it’s just another stepping stone because we have a lot of work to do in the upcoming week because we’ve got a good TCU team to play in Arlington.”
Twitter: @ChuckCarltonDMN
Takeaways and lookaheads from the past weekend in college football:
-- After not reaching the Big 12 title game, Texas’ bowl destination is becoming much clearer. The Longhorns are pretty much assured of a spot in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29 against a Pac-12 opponent. It would be Texas’ sixth Alamo appearance and third in the last five years.
-- After a stunning 38-23 win over LSU, one of the big questions at Texas A&M will be the overhaul of the coaching staff after a 5-7 season. Will coach Jimbo Fisher really hire an autonomous offensive coordinator to install new scheme?
-- Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire achieved a program first in his debut season in Lubbock. With the 51-48 overtime win over Oklahoma, Tech posted victories over Texas and OU in the same season for the first time. Both wins came in overtime on Trey Wolff field goals.
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