Texas A&M prediction: Plenty on the line as No. 14 Aggies host No. 8 LSU

No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M

When: 6:30 p.m. Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station

Records: LSU 6-1 (3-0); Texas A&M 6-1 (4-0)

Last meeting: No. 14 LSU def. Texas A&M, 42-30, on Nov. 25, 2023

TV: ABC

What’s at stake?

While LSU ensured its matchups with Texas A&M were one-sided through the Aggies’ first six seasons in the SEC, A&M has turned the unofficial rivalry into a competitive one over the past six editions. The programs have gone back and forth with each other in trading wins every year since 2018, with the home team coming out on top each time.

That trend bodes well for the Aggies this weekend, with vibes in and around the program at the highest they’ve been all season. With the top spot in the conference up for grabs between the two remaining undefeated teams in SEC play, the matchup carries major implications for the ceiling of each program’s season, with the winner gaining a potential inside track to the College Football Playoff.

That’s not to say all hope is lost for the loser, though. The Aggies and Tigers bear plenty of similarities in dropping their first game of the season to a ranked opponent before rattling off six wins in a row, including a victory over the ninth-ranked team at home. Both have upcoming opportunities against top-15 opponents with A&M hosting No. 5 Texas and No. 15 Alabama visiting LSU’s Death Valley.

The inaugural 12-team Playoff allows for a greater margin for error for hopeful programs, and strong runs to end the season could realistically put both teams in the conversation.

Postseason hypotheticals aside, both coaches will tell you they’re focusing on Saturday’s game, and understandably so. It’s the first time in a long while that the matchup has held such high stakes for the two programs, and the enthusiasm by fans matches that. With the 12th Man encouraged to black out Kyle Field, one squad will have to step up when the lights are at their brightest.

When Texas A&M has the ball

With redshirt sophomore quarterback Conner Weigman making his return back under center for the Aggies, A&M has produced its highest passing production of the season over the last two games with over 200 yards against then-No. 9 Missouri and Mississippi State. While Weigman’s two interceptions outnumber his one touchdown pass, he’ll have the opportunity to build upon those numbers against the Tigers.

LSU has surrendered 243.7 yards through the air per game, good for second-to-last in the SEC. It’s tied for last in the conference with four interceptions but has only allowed opponents to pass for seven scores.

It’s indicative of a larger trend for the Tigers, with the team’s 358.6 yards allowed per game ranking third-worst in the SEC. With just 20.6 points given up per game, though, LSU stands at ninth in the conference in scoring defense. The Bayou Bengals haven’t been great at limiting yardage and getting teams off the field, but they’ve shored up the defense to keep opponents out of the end zone.

The run game has long been a safety valve for A&M this year, with the unit picking up eight touchdowns over its last two games, despite being limited to just 136 yards by the league’s worst defense in Mississippi State. Junior running back Le’Veon Moss had his lowest production of the season at 65 yards but added two touchdowns. A bounce-back versus the Tigers would cement his status as one of the top backs in the SEC.

LSU’s defensive front won’t make it easy, though, with sophomore linebacker Whit Weeks and senior LB Greg Penn III ranking in the top 10 in the conference in tackles. Weeks has been on a tear recently with 39 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in his last three games. On the line, the senior defensive end duo of Bradyn Swinson and Sai’vion Jones has combined for 11.5 sacks.

When LSU has the ball

Few teams in the country like to air the ball out more than the Tigers, whose 322.4 passing yards per game are second in the SEC and eighth in the nation. It’s a key reason why they’re fifth in the conference with 450.7 yards and 34.1 points per game, doing so behind a quarterback that’s become a rarity in this day and age of college football.

Redshirt junior Garrett Nussmeier, a Flower Mound Marcus product and the son of former Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks coach Doug Nussmeier, has stayed loyal to LSU for four seasons after biding his time behind future A&M QB Max Johnson and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. Now, Garrett has been granted the keys to the offense, and his patience has paid off.

Garrett’s 18 passing touchdowns lead the SEC, as do his pass completions and attempts. He’s benefitted from having two of the conference’s top wide receivers on his side in fifth-year Kyren Lacy and redshirt sophomore Aaron Anderson, who have totaled nine touchdowns and 69 receptions. They may not be the same caliber as last season’s Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., but have impressed nonetheless.

The Tigers also boast one of the nation’s elite tight ends in junior Mason Taylor, a major component to the offense with 5.1 receptions per game.

While the Aggies tout one of the best defenses in SEC play with 17.8 points and 325.3 yards given up per game, the numbers aren’t as bright when it comes to protecting against the pass. A&M’s pass defense is just 12th in the conference with 239 yards allowed through four league games as the Maroon and White allowed three touchdowns to Mississippi State freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. last week.

The Aggies’ defensive efforts must be focused on the secondary, where Kansas State transfer cornerback Will Lee III, San Diego State transfer safety Marcus Ratcliffe and sophomore S Dalton Brooks will need to put forth one of their best performances of the year.

Prediction

A&M is in a desirable spot seven games into the season, as it controls its own destiny with its College Football Playoff aspirations. As it stands, the Aggies can realistically pave their own path to the postseason without the help of programs above them dropping more games. The same sentiment can be said about LSU, who shares the same goals as A&M in a crowded Playoff field.

Neither team needs any additional motivation with SEC frontrunner status on the line. The most exciting games are often the ones that are the most difficult to pick, and Saturday is no exception. In tight games, it helps to have 100,000 supporters behind you, and the Aggies will stand to benefit from a loaded Kyle Field dressed in black.

The Tigers saw the power of a nighttime home-field advantage when they took down Ole Miss two weeks ago. Now, it’s the Aggies’ turn.

Score: Texas A&M 28, LSU 27

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