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Texas prediction: Will No. 20 Longhorns keep Big 12 title dreams alive vs. No. 15 Iowa State?

The Longhorns need a win Friday to control their path to the conference championship game.

No. 15 Iowa State at No. 20 Texas

When: 11 a.m. Friday at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin

Records: Iowa State (6-2 overall, 6-1 Big 12); Texas (5-2, 4-2)

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Last meeting: Iowa State defeated Texas 23-21 on Nov. 16, 2019, in Ames, Iowa

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What’s at stake?

It’s the point in the season when every game seemingly has postseason implications. While Texas declaring that every game feels like a playoff matchup may seem a little premature, Friday’s showdown is vital to each team’s path to the Big 12 Championship Game.

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The Cyclones can nearly taste their first conference title game appearance in school history — their lone loss to Oklahoma State in October leaves them atop the conference standings with two games to go. A win for Matt Campbell’s squad keeps Iowa State firmly in the driver’s seat with just one final game against West Virginia standing in its way.

But for Texas, Friday’s matchup is do or die.

A loss on Sam Ehlinger’s senior day would mean the most the Longhorns have to show of the star quarterback’s four years in Austin is their 2018 Sugar Bowl victory. A win, and they still control their own conference championship destiny.

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When Texas has the ball

The Longhorns may be without running back Keaontay Ingram for the second consecutive game after he suffered a high ankle sprain against Oklahoma State a month ago. While the junior has missed time, freshman Bijan Robinson made a smooth transition into the starting role.

That said, it may be tough sledding for Robinson and the Texas rushing attack — the notoriously stout Iowa State defense is No. 15 in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. In what could be his final go at DKR-TMS, Ehlinger will likely have to be the workhorse for the Texas offense.

The senior has thrown for more than 300 yards just one time this year, in the season-opening win over UTEP. Without a true No. 1 receiver or a dominant presence on the outside, he just hasn’t looked sharp for much of the 2020 season.

If Texas wants to move the ball effectively Friday, Ehlinger will have to be perfect in the short and intermediate passing game. It may take one final vintage Ehlinger performance for the Longhorns to keep their goals afloat.

When Iowa State has the ball

In a Big 12 that is run by spread offenses, Iowa State has chosen to zig while the rest of the conference zags. With several talented tight ends, the Cyclones love to run out of 12 and 13 personnel and let running back Breece Hall cook.

The sophomore is the country’s leading rusher this season, already eclipsing 1,000 yards in just seven games. Similar to former Cyclone David Montgomery, Hall has a rare combination of speed and vision that makes life difficult for any defensive coordinator.

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Texas’ defensive front has come into its own over the past three games, limiting Oklahoma State star Chuba Hubbard to just 2.9 yards per carry in the upset win over the Cowboys. But against a team that is more committed to the run than any other in the conference, the Longhorns will have their hands full up front.

Prediction

Senior day festivities may take over the pregame, but don’t expect the Longhorns’ seniors to get lost in the moment. The matchup between these two teams last year came down to a field goal, and this game looks as if it may be just as close.

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Look for offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich to try to get Ehlinger into a rhythm early. Even if Robinson can’t find his footing in the rushing attack, the Texas offense should have enough from their senior passer to pull off yet another win against a ranked Big 12 opponent. In Ehlinger’s final act, he pulls one more rabbit out of the hat for the Longhorns.

Score: Texas 28, Iowa State 24

Find more Texas coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.